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Or you can now use TapaTalk again!Market Talk / March 11th - 17th
- Thread starter Spaf
- Start date
robo
Well-known member
TD Trader
by Arthur Hill
www.tdtrader.com
The Daily Swing - Arthur Hill
Thursday, 14 March 2007
Click Here for a Free Trial
***Position Summary***
The bears threw another punch, but support from the early March lows held and the bulls came back swinging. The rebound was impressive, but it is not quite enough to reverse the medium-term downtrends on the daily chart. We need to see some follow through on good volume and breadth. The short-term trends are still down overall, but Wednesday’s recovery is threatening to negate the break downs and bear signals that were triggered on Tuesday. I am not comfortable holding short positions after such reversals at support and will be looking to move aside on further strength. I am not interested in longs on upside breakouts and will simply regroup if the market moves higher today. A lot depends on the PPI and CPI, which are scheduled for today and tomorrow. I think CPI is more important and more likely to move the market. Throw in quadruple witching on Friday and we have a recipe for some real fireworks to end an already volatile week.
***Technical Highlights***
~The Prior Lows Hold~ Stock dipped sharply in early trading and then rallied sharply for a strong close on big volume. The major indices tested their early March lows and these tests were successful – so far. As a result of the morning decline and afternoon recovery, a number of hammers and piercing patterns formed. These are bullish candlestick reversals that require confirmation and follow through be impressive. One thing is clear: the bulls are not going to go quietly.
http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/HILL.html
robo
Well-known member
Thursday, March 15, 2007
Friday Curtain Raiser
June Yen futures have dashed back up by more than 50 points to .8655 and that is enough to put pressure on U.S. stock futures and even the Nikkei 225. Not that a 155 point dip in the Nikkei is all that much mind you, but it plays well into my theme of just how important it is to keep at eye on the YEN with respect to gauging what will happen to money flow.
http://www.nni.nikkei.co.jp/CF/FR/MKJ/
A strong yen is equity negative as it forces institutions and hedge funds to liquidate equity bets made by the good graces of shorting Yen and putting those proceeds to work in assets of higher yielding currencies. How long with this last? Even the famed Mr. Yen a week ago didn't know, but said the phenomenon could take quite some time to unwind.
Front and center tomorrow morning at 8:30 is the consumer price index. A .3% rise is expected in the overall figure, and .2% factoring out food and energy. Do you really believe that CPI data as being real world inflation data? I don't, but it makes for nice fodder at the trading desks where billions will be won or lost following its release. At 10, industrial production data will be released. The consensus is expecting a .3 uptick in production and a plant use rate at 81.3%.
Tomorrow is quadruple witching, the expiration of stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and single stock futures expire.
http://www.buttonwood1792.blogspot.com/
robo
Well-known member
Thursday, March 15, 2007
Levitation Day
The market was levitated higher on Thursday as option sellers bought back virtually worthless puts. This is a monthly exercise carried out in the week before the third Friday of the month and delayed an anticipated retest of the recent lows.
Although not all puts had yet to reach the worthless state by close of trading Thursday, it's safe to say that the majority did so and were hastily retired as the opportunity to do so presented itself. Indeed, the QQQ reached the magical pain point for option buyers, then promptly slipped beneath the waves. Although the NASDAQ-100 Index itself showed a gain for the day, this ETF which supposedly tracks the index, did not. The difference: profits for option manipulators, or more politely, "tracking error". OEX and other, less manipulable indices, didn't quite make it there. Here are the day's results:
Helping the market, too, was bargain-hunting in stocks which had been sold down earlier in the week on a wholesale (basket trading) basis. But, with the Yen rebounding during Friday's session in Tokyo, it's clear that the Sumo wrestler is back for a rematch with the US market. And, our advice for investors not to chase the rally proved very sound.
http://marketclues.blogspot.com/
weatherweenie
Well-known member
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -4.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.5. Futures trade improves somewhat following a relatively in-line CPI report but still languishes below fair value to suggest a lower start for stocks. Total CPI rose 0.4% (consensus 0.3%). The more closely-watched core rate rose 0.2% in February, matching economists' forecasts to leave the year/year rate at 2.7% and providing some comfort following yesterday's stronger than expected PPI data. Bonds, though, which were down slightly ahead of the data, are weakening as the 10-yr note is now down 5 ticks to yield 4.55%.
weatherweenie
Well-known member
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -2.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.5. Futures indications continue to improve upon further analysis of today's CPI report. The release has been comforting to the stock market since it will keep inflation fears in check as the trend remains fairly stable. Nonetheless, the stage remains set for stocks to open on a slightly downbeat note as a market more sensitive to signs of economic weakness than inflation awaits additional data and perhaps further proof that the subprime debacle is not spilling over into an economy that continues to show signs of slowing.
FundSurfer
Well-known member
Consumer Price Index up 0.4 pct. in Feb. Consensus was 0.3 %. Could have been better, could have been much worse. Good that "inflation was better behaved, rising by just 0.2 percent".
ATCJeff
Well-known member
weatherweenie
Well-known member
Briefing.com: At the top of the hour, a survey compiled by the University of Michigan fell to 88.8 in March from a prior read of 91.3, reflecting the first signs of consumer response to the recent market sell-off and increased concerns of a recession owed in part to subprime mortgage woes.
nnuut
Moderator | TSP Legend
How about that Dollar, in the end may make the "I" fun more attractive, I would say.
CURRENCIES
Dollar falls to three-month euro low
By Wanfeng Zhou, MarketWatch
Last Update: 1:22 PM ET Mar 16, 2007
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The dollar fell to three-month lows against the euro and the Swiss franc and dropped against the yen Friday, weighed down by concerns over the outlook for the U.S. economy.
The U.S. currency was little moved by a government report showing U.S. core consumer inflation was in line with expectations last month. It briefly trimmed some losses after a report showed a rebound in U.S. industrial output.
"The dollar has been crushed," said Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman. "The fear of a hard-landing in the U.S. seems to be gathering force."
In New York trading, the dollar was quoted at 116.81 yen, compared with 117.54 yen late Thursday. The euro stood at $1.3308, compared with $1.3234. In intraday trading, it had risen to $1.3338, the highest level since Dec. 6.
The British pound traded at $1.9418, compared with $1.9368. The dollar changed hands at 1.2076 Swiss francs, compared with 1.2174 francs.
The euro fetched 155.47 yen, compared with 154.83 yen. See live currency rates.
Keeping pressure on the Fed, U.S. consumer prices increased 0.4% in February, led by higher prices for food, energy, shelter and tobacco, the Labor Department reported Friday.
Core prices, excluding food and energy, increased 0.2% in February.
The 0.4% gain in the consumer price index was a tenth of a percentage point higher than expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. The core CPI came in as expected. See full story.
U.S. industrial output rebounded in February led by higher utility output because of colder-than-average temperatures.
Industrial output rose 1.0% in February, the biggest gain since November 2005. Capacity utilization rose to 82.0, the highest level since September, the Federal Reserve reported Friday.
All major industry groups except construction supplies recorded production gains in the month.
The increase in output in February was above forecasts. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected a 0.6% increase. Capacity utilization was expected to rise to 81.5%.
Also on Friday, a report showed U.S. consumer sentiment fell in March to the lowest level since September. The Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 88.8 in March from 91.3 in February. The decline was exactly as expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. (More)
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?column=CurrenciesSimilar threads
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