Market Talk / March 11th - 17th

[Gaetaone]

VIX at 18.73.. Sure would be nice to see it start dropping..

 

[Birchtree]

Not with all them cluckers running around - the bears run the risk of getting caught in their own traps.

 

[Birchtree]

Why is the R2K up nicely and the Wilshire 4500 is asleep - or else the graph is wrong.

 

[Spaf]

Why is the R2K up nicely and the Wilshire 4500 is asleep - or else the graph is wrong.

I'm showing [$WLSH] up about +67.

 

[Spaf]

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
March 14, 2007 Closing​

Yak, Le Charts, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tally Can

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................A webound! (small rebound)

Con-Yak...................................Very volatile!

Jester-Yak................................Mechanical bull day!

Le Charts

Charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com​

Doodles:
Stops.......................................Alert (-1%)....Trail (-2%)
.....SPX........1387.17 +9.22.........XXXX.............XXXX

Dollar........................................83.65 -0.07 for the day.

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at...............58.16 +0.23 for the day.
Oil Markers.................................<60= ok, 60-65= worry, >65= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Yellow/Red.

Tally Can
TSP Funds..................................G-fund, F-fund, C-fund, S-fund, I-fund.
Top 10 last 12 mo........................7.0 ......0.0 ......0.0 .....1.5 ......1.5
Today .....3 made IFT(s), 70% bearish, 30% bullish.

Yesterday.3 made IFT(s), 50% bearish, 50% bullish.

 

[FundSurfer]

I'm thinking the market is not quite the roller coaster the next couple days. Call it the March Madness effect.

 

[airlift]

PPI and core PPI came in a lot higher than expected (inflationary). NY Empire State index came in significantly lower than expected. These numbers could knock down the equity markets today and thus create a buying opportunity for a trade. Now waiting for OPEC and crude!

 

[weatherweenie]

[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -0.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.5. Futures trade spikes lower following economic data, now suggesting a slightly lower start for the cash market. Total PPI unexpectedly jumped 1.3% (consensus 0.5%) in February. The more closely-watched core rate rose 0.4% (consensus 0.2%), prompting a knee-jerk reaction in equities but bonds have basically shrugged off the report so far in anticipation of tomorrow's more influential CPI report to provide a clearer read on inflation. The March NY Empire State Index plunged to 1.9 (consensus 17.0); but today’s Philly Fed survey will hold more influence. Initial claims fell 11K to 318K (consensus 325K).

 

[FundSurfer]

PPI and core PPI came in a lot higher than expected (inflationary). NY Empire State index came in significantly lower than expected. These numbers could knock down the equity markets today and thus create a buying opportunity for a trade. Now waiting for OPEC and crude!

Or a Sell good news...Buy bad news type reaction...

 

[The_Technician]

Or a Sell good news...Buy bad news type reaction...

This market is walking on a thin glass floor....when it breaks its going down hard.....playing with fire is one thing, here you are playing with a wild beast that bites when it turns on you......wise men never play that way....

 

[SkiUtah]

Who does Alan work for these days....?


2:00 pm : After a knee-jerk downturn in equities following recent remarks from former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, the market is almost as quickly recovering what was lost. At the bottom of the hour, Greenspan said subprime mortgages are "not a small issue" and that, if prices go down, the problems may spread as he expects to see spillover to other sectors.
Be that as it may, the market has shown good resilience in the face of such bearish commentary as the indices have found notable support right around the flat line. DJ30 +19.76 NASDAQ +2.49 SP500 +4.88 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1346/1595/1.09 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1069/2150/896 mln

 

[wht00ss]

Alan works for Alan's checkbook. This guy was a tool when he was chairman and all he is trying to do is jack up his speaking engagement $$$$.

white

 

[Spaf]

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
March 15, 2007 Closing​

Yak, Le Charts, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tally Can

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................Some bounce still left.

Con-Yak...................................4-Witches for Friday!

Jester-Yak................................Was yesterday a reversal?

Le Charts

Charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com​

Doodles:
Stops.......................................Alert (-1%)....Trail (-2%)
.....SPX........1392.28 +5.11.........XXXX.............XXXX

Dollar........................................83.65 -0.00 for the day.

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at...............57.55 -.61 for the day.
Oil Markers.................................<60= ok, 60-65= worry, >65= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Yellow.

Tally Can
TSP Funds..................................G-fund, F-fund, C-fund, S-fund, I-fund.
Top 10 last 12 mo........................6.5 ......1.5 ......0.0 .....1.5 ......0.5
Today .....3 made IFT(s), 80% bearish, 20% bullish.

Yesterday.3 made IFT(s), 70% bearish, 30% bullish.

 

[nnuut]

Could this be a double bottom? NAH!!!!!!!!!:worried:

 

[Spaf]

A double sumptin!.....Sure is dark in this bear den!!!!... CSS!!!!

Wow!!!.......CNBC was full of bears today........:suspicious:

 

[fabijo]

Could this be a double bottom? NAH!!!!!!!!!:worried:

That would be good. If it is and the markets continue going up, I can see plenty of people sitting on the sidelines, afraid of the impending 10% or more drop.

 

[robo]

Is The Bottom In?
March 16, 2007

The lows reached in last week’s Monday decline, directly followed by a strong accumulation day and then a week of small gains, closely matches this Wednesday’s intra-day lows for the Nasdaq 100 index (NDX), Russell 2000 Index (RUT), Nasdaq Composite Index (COMPQ) and to a lesser extent the S&P 500 Index (SPX).

This could be a double bottom and mark the lows of this correction. Aggressive traders might use the lows as a sell stop trigger. But volatility is still very extreme and should those lows be broken during the next weeks, we may very well see traders jump ship and an escalation of selling. The lows currently in place are a crucial support level for the markets.

http://timing.typepad.com/timer/

 

[nnuut]

That would be good. If it is and the markets continue going up, I can see plenty of people sitting on the sidelines, afraid of the impending 10% or more drop.

How true it is Fab, and I'm just the one to blow it and stick it out on the Lilly Pad. We know it can go both ways. I think it's harder to get back in when you are in the CP Mode than it is to get OUT!:worried:

 

[robo]

MARKET COMMENT

March 15, 2007


Who are we to argue with government policy? If the powers that be believe printing money like a Kinko’s on steroids will cure whatever ails the markets, so be it. The fact is that’s just what they’re doing.

Today another $20 billion [“your tax dollars at work”] gets injected to the primary dealers. That makes $57 billion in two days!



Tomorrow we’ll be treated to more “investment entertainment” as the CPI is due [think “contained” and “no worries” language] and quadruple witch [March options and futures et al expire]. Given the volatility of the past few weeks there should be some unusual activity as investors try to square-up positions which can cause odd price movements.

No one except our friends in officialdom and perhaps some insiders at the primary dealer network know what comes next with another money helicopter drop. But “thus far” [emphasis added] it seems to be arresting market declines. The downside of all this money expansion is monetary inflation which should be attracting gold investors. But, gold investors seem both confused and rather weak-handed. Plus, there might be some serious producer forward gold selling occurring combined with the 400 tons that may be sold by the IMF at some point.

So, we’ll see what tomorrow brings to close out a pretty wild week.

Have a great weekend!


http://www.etfdigest.com/daveDaily.php

 

[Birchtree]

Mr Nnuut realizes it can go both ways - does that mean it can go up 416 points. It won't take much to trigger this momentum - we are still in a 3 of 3 pattern IMHO.