Market Talk / March 11th - 17th

[ATCbanjo]

We're no more than a couple of grains of sand on a beach. Really.

 

[James48843]

There was an article last week, fedsmith I think, that said on the day after of the big drop, there were about 16,000 people in TSP total that shifted funds that day, which is higher than usual.

That is out of about 3,680,000 total TSP participants.

Yes, we are but grains of sand.

 

[Birchtree]

That's what happens when one has an intense feeling of peristalsis and then hitting the panic button - classic mistake. You have three chances before you are in crisis. They'll be complaining of neck strain soon enough.

 

[ChemEng]

That's what happens when one has an intense feeling of peristalsis and then hitting the panic button - classic mistake. You have three chances before you are in crisis. They'll be complaining of neck strain soon enough.

Are you serious? Now you are advocating people should feel comfortable loosing money?

How is protecting their money a classic mistake? There was roughly 7-8 trading days of nosediving. Getting out on the second day of the decline is a pretty smart move, especially given the magnitude of the moves the market was making.

 

[airlift]

I agree with you!

Are you serious? Now you are advocating people should feel comfortable loosing money?

How is protecting their money a classic mistake? There was roughly 7-8 trading days of nosediving. Getting out on the second day of the decline is a pretty smart move, especially given the magnitude of the moves the market was making.

 

[James48843]

The key is knowing when to go back in the water.

I figure as long as I am buying back in at lower than the price when I bailed, I am a winner.

Yes, I missed last week's run up- but I am back in as of COB today, and still ahead of where I would have been, had I not taken it off the table the first day of the plunge.

Even a little ahead is better than none at all.

 

[ChemEng]

Agreed. And coming back in when the prices are cheaper means you are

**wait for it**

buying MORE SHARES of it.

A classic mistake indeed.

 

[Spaf]

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
March 12, 2007 Closing​

Yak, Le Charts, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tally Can

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................Mergers move socks up. lube slides down.

Con-Yak...................................Vestors are still nervous.

Jester-Yak................................Like sliding down a unfinished bannister!

Le Charts

Charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com​

Doodles:
Stops.......................................Alert (-1%)....Trail (-2%)
.....SPX........1406.60 +3.75.........XXXX.............XXXX

Dollar........................................83.85 -0.40 for the day.

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at...............58.91 -1.14 for the day.
Oil Markers.................................<60= ok, 60-65= worry, >65= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Yellow/Green.

Tally Can
TSP Funds..................................G-fund, F-fund, C-fund, S-fund, I-fund.
Top 10 last 12 mo........................5.0 ......1.0 ......0.3 .....1.8 ......2.0
Today .....2 made IFT(s), 60% bearish, 40% bullish.

Friday......3 made IFT(s), 44% bearish, 56% bullish.

 

[clester]

Retail Sales come out today. I hope they are better than I think. See if they make excuses if they're bad.

 

[weatherweenie]

Briefing.com: 08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -7.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -10.5. Early indications are signaling a sharply lower open for stocks. Even though a rising yen doesn't alter the fundamental condition of U.S. companies whatsoever, another rally in the Japanese currency is again fueling liquidity concerns tied to an unwinding in the carry trade. With potential defaults by subprime lenders still a thorn in the market's side of late, there are also some concerns that Goldman Sachs' (GS) upcoming earnings report may disappoint. Investors are also anxiously awaiting monthly retail sales, which will be out at 8:30 ET to provide an update on the health of the consumer.

 

[weatherweenie]

Briefing.com:08:33 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -9.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -15.0. February retail sales rose just 0.1% (consensus 0.3%) while the more closely-watched sales, ex-autos, unexpectedly fell 0.1% (consensus 0.3%). With the market increasingly concerned about the pace of economic growth, the weaker than expected data exacerbate ongoing concerns about a slowdown. Bonds, in contrast, have strengthened as the 10-yr note is now up 13 ticks to yield 4.49% as traders price in an improved likelihood of a Fed rate cut.

 

[airlift]

As per Bloomberg TV, RETAIL SALES CAME LOWER THAN EXPECTED. This could presage a lower leg on the SPX, perhaps confirming the dead cat bounce is ready to end; but it also would offer a new buying opportunity at better prices. We'll see.

 

[ChemEng]

Im debating if this is one of the "Buy Red, Sell Green" opportunities...

 

[FundSurfer]

Im debating if this is one of the "Buy Red, Sell Green" opportunities...

I'm having the same debate with myself. It really depends on how much red there really is.

Tom's mention of options expiration has me thinking that I will be out of the market over the weekend. I'm not sure how many options will be exercised, but I figure quite a few that are may be turned around and sold right away.

If I do buy Red, it will be a quick in&out type trade. HIGH RISK.

 

[ChemEng]

I posted this yesterday in my account talk---but Friday is Quadruple witching AND GM releases their 06 annual report. Theres already a rumor that the annual report will include a $1B writeoff. Not a good day to be in the market I think...

Link here:
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=83320&postcount=242

 

[airlift]

My TSP account hasn't been updated since 3/9/07. Anyone else having this problem?

 

[Gaetaone]

Just checked and my TSP account was not updated... Owww

 

[airlift]

I wonder why they have so much difficulty maintaining the sytems operational?

 

[jlpost]

I called TSP, they are aware of the situation and working to correct it. They said transfers done prior to noon yesterday were accomplished and will soon be reflected in accounts.

 

[airlift]

Thanks for calling.

I called TSP, they are aware of the situation and working to correct it. They said transfers done prior to noon yesterday were accomplished and will soon be reflected in accounts.