Market Talk / March 11th - 17th

[Spaf]

The Kingdom of TSP
Sunday Weekly
Early Edition
March 11, 2007​

Yak, Le Charts, Doodles, Tea Leaves, The Tin Box & The Tally Can

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................The Slow STO is giving a bullish signal, and Lube was down 2.6% for the week.

Con-Yak....................................We're bearish untill 1435 [SPX], and still volatile!

Jester-Yak.................................When are we going to get back to normal?

Le Charts

Charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com​

Doodles:
Stops......................................Alert (-1%).....Trail (-2%)
.....SPX....................................xxxx..............xxxx
.....IJR.....................................xxxx..............xxxx
.....EFA....................................xxxx..............xxxx

Dollar.......................................84.25 +0.14 for the week ending...$USD

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at..............60.05 -1.59 for the week ending...NYMEX
Oil Markers................................<60= ok, 60-65= worry, >65= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Yellow.

Tin Box.
TSP (week ending)......G=11.82..F=11.31..C=15.58..S=19.14..I=22.50
....(1 week past)........G=11.81..F=11.33..C=15.40..S=18.94..I=22.06
....(2 week past)........G=11.80..F=11.25..C=16.10..S=19.95..I=23.29
....(3 week past)........G=11.78..F=11.24..C=16.14..S=19.80..I=23.17
....(4 week past)........G=11.77..F=11.18..C=15.94..S=19.55..I=22.78

....(end of 2006)........G=11.71..F=11.14..C=15.69..S=18.76..I=22.22

Tally Can.
Top 10 last 12 mo.......................View attachment 1489
...............................................Courtesy of Fundsurfer's Leader Tally Chart

 

[The_Technician]

The Kingdom of TSP​

Sunday Weekly
Early Edition
March 11, 2007​

​

Tally Can.
Top 10 last 12 mo.......................View attachment 1489
...............................................Courtesy of Fundsurfer's Leader Tally Chart

U know Spaf.....that Tally Can sure reveals what happened to the leaders of the last 12 months. Compare them to the leaders of the last 3 and there are vast differences.....it only shows how far down they are to most recent leaders....nothing more.....

personally, I think we're on Thunder(5) Mountain myself.....:nuts: Congrats to Thunder5 for his achievement of late.

 

[SkyPilot]

In most comparisons, the short term will almost always produce higher results for a few... the longer term will more likely demonstrate skill over luck.

Been out of pocket for a week, good to be back!

 

[Spaf]

I sort of use it as one of several indicators i.e., if 70% are sitting in safe funds and I'm pulling up my socks, maybe it's time I got my foot out of the water!............

U know Spaf.....that Tally Can sure reveals what happened to the leaders of the last 12 months. Compare them to the leaders of the last 3 and there are vast differences.....it only shows how far down they are to most recent leaders....nothing more.....

personally, I think we're on Thunder(5) Mountain myself.....:nuts: Congrats to Thunder5 for his achievement of late.

 

[The_Technician]

In most comparisons, the short term will almost always produce higher results for a few... the longer term will more likely demonstrate skill over luck.

Been out of pocket for a week, good to be back!

The skilled will keep on leading no matter the circumstances.....

 

[Show-me]

TOKYO (Kyodo)--Japan's economy grew an annualized real 5.5 percent in the October-December period from the previous quarter, revised upward from a 4.8 percent expansion in a preliminary report, the government said Monday.

The link is a subscription, but that seems like a awful big revision.

 

[Birchtree]

They're beating the heck out of the Germans with their low yen rates. Might as well throw in the Frogs and the Italians, too. They don't want to see the yen rise for the same reasons we don't necessarily want to see the dollar rise - finally starting to make progress on the trade deficit.

 

[Show-me]

AP
Halliburton Will Move HQ to Dubai
Sunday March 11, 9:01 pm ET
By Jim Krane, Associated Press Writer Halliburton Will Shift Headquarters From Houston to Mideast Financial Powerhouse of Dubai
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) -- Oil services giant Halliburton Co. will soon shift its corporate headquarters from Houston to the Mideast financial powerhouse of Dubai, chief executive Dave Lesar announced Sunday.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070311/emirates_halliburton.html?.v=5

 

[Oldcoin]

Is Friday the 16th a quadruple witching day? If it is what will it mean for the market?

 

[Spaf]

Is Friday the 16th a quadruple witching day? If it is what will it mean for the market?

According to ST....March 16 is a Triple Witching day, Dow Up 4 of Last 5, Down 3 in a row 1999-2001. Three witches and a bull!

 

[weatherweenie]

Briefing.com:
08:06 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.0. The market was poised earlier to start the day on an upbeat note, but the bullish bias has been fading, and now, the broader market is slated to begin the session on a relatively flat note. There hasn't been any specific news catalyst to blame for the reversal. On the contrary, today's news has been generally supportive as there has been a batch of M&A activity, highlighted by Schering-Plough's (SGP) $14.4 billion cash offer for Akzo Nobel's drug unit, and oil prices are trading below $60.

 

[weatherweenie]

Briefing.com:
08:37 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.2. The bullish sentiment seen earlier has wavered, and consequently, the market is now set to start the session on a negative note. Ongoing concerns about the growing problems in the subprime mortgage market have served as a turning point after Countrywide (CFC) said in an update that it expects some short-term earnings volatility as a result of the changes in the subprime mortgage marketplace. In related news, New Century Financial (NEW) disclosed it has received notice from its lenders that they are discontinuing their financing under the company's short-term repurchase agreements and aggregation credit facilities.

 

[airlift]

I'm unable to refresh the Stockcharts. Does anyone else have this problem?

 

[Oldcoin]

I'm unable to refresh the Stockcharts. Does anyone else have this problem?

Yes, looks like they are stuck on Friday. Must be that early daylight savings time.

 

[airlift]

Thanks Oldcoin! Hopefully.

 

[James48843]

A lot of people moving to the sidelines today-

See mad dog's account talk thread.

Oh, woe is me.....I am moving the other way, back into stocks today...

 

[SkiUtah]

Today not be a bad day to get back in...

11:55 am : Everything was set for an upbeat start to the week. Japan revised its Q4 GDP growth higher, oil prices slipped below $60 per barrel, and there was a batch of M&A activity highlighted by Schering-Plough's (SGP 23.62, -0.23) $14.4 billion cash offer for Akzo Nobel's drug unit Organon.
However, the tide of bullish sentiment soon turned in the wake of a revelation from Countrywide Financial (CFC 34.98, -1.12) that it expects to encounter short-term earnings volatility as it tightens its underwriting guidelines in response to the deteriorating conditions in the subprime mortgage market.
Countrywide's news, combined with an announcement from mortgage REIT New Century Financial (NEW 3.21, halted) that its lenders have halted their financing, was enough to derail the bullish bias and left the market poised for a lower open.
Strikingly, though, the market managed to hold its ground at the start of trading in a sign that perhaps it is coming around to the conclusion that problems in the subprime mortgage market aren't going to be a systemic issue.
That consideration hasn't helped the financial sector (-0.6%), which is the day's worst-performing area and a major drag on the broader market ahead of Goldman Sachs' (GS 199.49, -2.21) earnings report before the open tomorrow.
Despite the financial sector's underperformance, sellers haven't ben able to establish much momentum as a wait-and-see attitude seems to have permeated the market with a host of important, and potentially market-moving, items coming up this week.
The Goldman Sachs earnings report is among them, as is the mid-quarter update from Texas

 

[James48843]

Haliburton annouces it's moving it's corporate headquarters from Houston, Texas to Dubai.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070312/ap_on_bi_ge/emirates_halliburton

 

[$onny]

Haliburton annouces it's moving it's corporate headquarters from Houston, Texas to Dubai.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070312/ap_on_bi_ge/emirates_halliburton

No wonder!! They can afford it now! Check out: Dubailandiaeng.pps

http://www.warguru.net/download.php?file=32Dubailandiaeng.pps

 

[clester]

I see a lot of folks jumping into safety (G and F). I'm looking to see if the TSPTalk crowd can influence the market. I've been saying it for a while, but I think TSPers can affect the market. We have a lot of money between us.