Market Talk / July 16 - 22

Spaf

Honorary Hall of Fame Member
The Kingdom of TSP
Sunday-Weekly
Early Edition
July 16, 2006

Madpuppy.jpg

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak.................................Well at least TSP has index funds.

Con-Yak.................................Mideast violence, surging lube prices, and profit worries.

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at.............1,236.20, dn -27.28 for the week.
Volume (CMF) (money flow)........-0.149, decreasing.
Averages (MACD) (trend)...........-2.514, decreasing.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal)........25.00, decreasing.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold...[70]....39.85....[30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at................78.71, up +4.62, for the week.
Oil Markers..............................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Charts & Stuff..........................Red / Red [Doodles +1-4 / Lube > 75].

Tin Box:
Position...................................100% socks.
Stops [$SPX]............................Alert: 1267 [broken]. Trail: 1254 [broken].

TSP (week ending)......G=11.45..F=10.65..C=13.55..S=16.38..I=18.59
....(1 week past)........G=11.44..F=10.61..C=13.87..S=16.96..I=19.36
....(2 week past)........G=11.43..F=10.60..C=13.91..S=17.21..I=19.39
....(3 week past)........G=11.42..F=10.54..C=13.63..S=16.62..I=18.54
....(4 week past)........G=11.41..F=10.58..C=13.70..S=16.58..I=18.46

SP5000714g.gif
 
Don't know how much more of this I can take- I'm down 12K in five days, and I thought we had hit bottom before then.

But there is so much gone I'd hate to pull out, just in time to miss a bounce up.......
 
If you're not sure James, let your allocation reflect that, and what you're comfortable with losing. Nibble in on the way up, nibble out on the way down. That way, you're never 100% wrong, of course never 100% right either. 100% right euphoria is fleeting, 100% wrong hurts for a little while longer :)


James48843 said:
Don't know how much more of this I can take- I'm down 12K in five days, and I thought we had hit bottom before then.

But there is so much gone I'd hate to pull out, just in time to miss a bounce up.......
 
Do I know which way to play this week? NO!!:nuts:

07/14/2006 - Updated 6:55 PM ET
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Escalating violence could keep U.S. stocks down Deadly fighting in the Middle East may overshadow flood of earnings reports
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</IMG>By Carla Mozee, MarketWatch
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) - U.S. equities are likely to extend losses next week if the violence in the Middle East escalates over the weekend, once again overshadowing corporate earnings reports for the second-quarter season.http://markets.usatoday.com/custom/usatoday-com/html-story.asp?markets=Domestic&guid=%7BC66D7777%2D1A4E%2D485B%2D9ED7%2D4D0302679CE5%7D
 
James48843 said:
Don't know how much more of this I can take- I'm down 12K in five days, and I thought we had hit bottom before then.

But there is so much gone I'd hate to pull out, just in time to miss a bounce up.......

Remember TSP are index funds, so they have a better chance of recovery, as apposed to sector funds. My experience has been if you sell, you are selling low to a permanent loss.
You buy socks at a lower price and sell them at a higher price.
We are in the worst months+the mideast+oil. My thinking is we are in a bad time frame, but it should pass, when: don't know.
Motto: Never jump out of perfectly good airplane!
 
Spaf said:
Remember TSP are index funds, so they have a better chance of recovery, as apposed to sector funds. My experience has been if you sell, you are selling low to a permanent loss.
You buy socks at a lower price and sell them at a higher price.
We are in the worst months+the mideast+oil. My thinking is we are in a bad time frame, but it should pass, when: don't know.
Motto: Never jump out of perfectly good airplane!

Motto: Never jump out of perfectly good airplane! HEE, HEE! Yeah!! I like that!! YES SIR, I LIKE IT!:D It's good when it's good!:D
 
Hurry up - I can't wait until next week - got my buy list and ready to hurt myself. Put me in the Stinger scorpion leg lock - make me cry out cluck, cluck.

The Leading Economic Index, as compiled by the Conference Board. has now contracted over the past six months. There have been 7 times when the yield curve has inverted and the LEI also contracted for six months. The last 6 of those times have seen a recession an average 9.3 months later. Just trying to pre-empt the next Wizard scare tactic. I guess it could be fortuitous but fortitude will rule the investment day.

Companies are buying back so much stock that you don't even need a strong sales performance to get these double-digit EPS any more. Within the S&P 500, earnings per share at 108 companies increased by at least 4 percentage points thanks to buybacks. The cash laden companies in the S&P 500 spent 45 percent of their capital expenditures on stock buybacks last year, which was especially significant because capital expenditures were on the upswing.

What do these executives know that I don't. Companies have never bought back this much stock before. IMHO they are providing a market floor. And from remedial economics we know that removing shares from the earnings per share calculation can make the figure look much better than would have otherwise. So due diligence is encouraged.
 
Everyone and their sister is so negative. Fed Chief Bernanke heads to Capitol Hill on Wednesday and Thursday. The last 3 big mover days since trend reversed were on 6/1, 6/15, 6/29, - all Thursdays. What a great time to be invested - it's like sliding down the rabbit hole. Exciting to say the least. My heart is pulsating with adrenalin - even giving money back to depreciation is better than coasting in the G fund. The move up from here could actually be down right explosive - no one will see it coming, no one is prepared to take the BULL ride. Well almost no one - Spaf and Robo are primed. I keep thinking about the Zweig volume thrust signals - mercy. Snort.
 
Pretty tough for the market to move up with what's happening in the middle east. Israel has blamed Iran for attacking its warship, and if they really believe that, I don't see how they can avoid declaring war on Iran.
 
Very well could be a BIG ONE, would be nice to be 100% in stocks. I'm going to have to see some strong indicators (back off the war a little)before I jump. Some times it is a BIG surprise (most of the time) and I might have to miss it. I don't like missing a lousy penny, but I hate to lose 2% or more a week. Frugal is the word.:D :D
 
Don't forget we're heading into earnings season for the next two weeks. This should give us some clues via the outlook for key sectors.
 
Clues, yes big ones, cause I'm not giving my money back once I earn it! At least that's my plan (most of the time).:D
 
This week could be up 5% or head down 5%.... Looks like a coin toss...


The Battle Israel is fighting has been going on for around 60 years now. The Market is only concerned about the price of oil and the impact it will have on the world economy... The Middle East problems will not be resolved in my lifetime, I'm pretty sure of that. The market will look beyond it quickly once it thinks Iran and Syria will not get involved.. ( Of course if they do, we could see oil head over 80 bucks a barrel!!! Not good...)

Next week it's going to be minute by minute Headlines on CNBC moving the market.

We have: PPI, CPI, FOMC minutes, earnings, earnings , and more earnings, comments from the Big Semi's and Google... Big Ben will talk on Wednesday, and don't forget Options Expiration Deadline... Mix that up with weak seasonality and Middle East Conflict; What happens to the price of Oil and Gas? We have the makings for a wild week!!

Contrarian Indicator or Bad news I'm not sure yet. I received go to cash signals from plenty of TA's Friday. Some took Big loses on their score sheets last week. They are talking the 4 year cycle bottom; SELL, SELL, SELL!! They could be right, but I just can't sell at these prices, I'm a buyer. I was mostly in cash and I'm buying stock. If earnings look bad I might have to take my loses and go to cash. I added stock the last couple of days. I'm up again for the year so I'm willing to take on a little more risk... It just seems like a bottom, but I got burnt in May the same way.. We shall see...



Good Trading/Investing!!!

Hoping the 1220's hold and we can get a rally. If not those in cash should get a very nice short-term buying op soon. Looks like rallies could be sold for the rest of the summer.
 
Mike said:
Oil is pushing back towards its high above $78...


Oh Boy!!! Oil needs to head back down and soon....The Dem's are going to gain some seats this election..

Oil, Gold and the dollar all headed up...
 
Birchtree said:
Hurry up - I can't wait until next week - got my buy list and ready to hurt myself.


This morning stocks are largely red around the world- and compounding it- the dollar is UP again-

Sounds like another bitter day for the "I" fund.

Good grief!
 
CRAP!!!
-------------------------------------------------
Industrial production up 0.8% in June
Capacity utilization rises to 6-year high of 82.4%


By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
Last Update: 9:15 AM ET Jul 17, 2006

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Capping the strongest quarterly growth in 6 years, U.S. industrial output surged 0.8% in June, boosted by strong output at factories, mines and utilities, the Federal Reserve said Monday.
Capacity utilization - a key measure of inflationary pressures -- rose to 82.4%, the highest level in six years, the Fed said.

Capacity utilization is one factor the Federal Reserve will consider when it meets on Aug. 8 to discuss further increases in interest rates. High utilization rates in industry and in labor markets can fuel inflation. Capacity utilization is about 1.4 percentage points above its long-term average.
 
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