Market Talk / July 13 - 19

[Frixxxx]

And the witch hunt continues:

http://www.foxbusiness.com/story/ma...oenas-hedge-funders-possible-rumor-mongering/

 

[fedgolfer]

the news is depressing. So it must be time to go all in. LoL

the Paulson & Bernanke testimony today has so much doom and gloom.... Senators quoting dow theory bear markets, etc. But Paulson seems so calm in conveying the message that GSE's will not fail and that restoring confidence is a priority. Plus all my co-workers are talking about the chaos in banks and moving money out of the S&P.

 

[tsptalk]

Plus all my co-workers are talking about the chaos in banks and moving money out of the S&P.

Excellent sign fedgolfer. They are even later than the dumb money.

 

[fedgolfer]

Excellent sign fedgolfer. They are even later than the dumb money.

Over the weekend at the nats game, I overheard several conversations at the game and on the metro that the markets suck and the GSE are dead in the water. Someone asked me how to short the markets too in the cafeteria today! I got phone calls from college buds that are notorious B&H'ers saying they're considering pulling money out of the market, I have co-workers that never talk financial stuff that are quoting that the Dow is down 20% or Berkshire hathaway is even losing money... If that's not capitulation, its definitely the beginning.

 

[Elgallo]

Friday will be the day. Isn't it OPEX day?

 

[James48843]

Over the weekend at the nats game, I overheard several conversations at the game and on the metro that the markets suck and the GSE are dead in the water. Someone asked me how to short the markets too in the cafeteria today! I got phone calls from college buds that are notorious B&H'ers saying they're considering pulling money out of the market, I have co-workers that never talk financial stuff that are quoting that the Dow is down 20% or Berkshire hathaway is even losing money... If that's not capitulation, its definitely the beginning.

Excellent intellegence.

Yep, that's the kind of thing we are looking for. If everybody's talking, then we're near the corner.

 

[Fivetears]

I wanna see some Jam Cramit Mad Money capitulation! Show me the RANTING! Show me the RAVING! :nuts: :nuts: :nuts:

 

[Show-me]

Friday will be the day. Isn't it OPEX day?

Yes!

 

[Birchtree]

Today had the potential to be a key reversal day - we're forming a bottom that will hold for several years. With more than 18 billion shares short and now regulatory folks are after the naked short sellers anything can happen in a flash. I got one more day of serious financial buying and then this puppy can explode.

 

[malyla]

Today had the potential to be a key reversal day - we're forming a bottom that will hold for several years.

What are you basing this assertion on? 'A bottom that will hold for several years' - give us some analysis to back up this assertion. Maybe it's from a tarot card reading. Or is this a Bushism like "Everyone should just take a breath" as the financial world falls apart around us! You are risking becoming tiresome without analysis to back up your cheerleading.

CP is the key.

 

[James48843]

Intel reports after the bell, that sales are up, and profits too.

FINALLY- good news from some quarter.

Even if it is from the High Tech sector.

For a while there- I thought we are all up the creek, and no paddle.

But it looks like the rise in laptop sales may be helpful to break the freefall.

We'll find out in the morning.

Laptops- a paddle.

Yeh, that's the ticket.

If you are up a creek, without a paddle, you can always pull out your laptop...

View attachment 4280​

 

[clester]

I know the VIX is over 30 which is a contrarian sign. The issue I have is that everyone is talking about it and looking for the reversal. CNBC keeps pumping that idea. When everyone expects something to happen it may not. I hope I'm wrong.

Does the VIX need to spike to 35 or more? This slow bleed is killing us.

 

[malyla]

Does the VIX need to spike to 35 or more? This slow bleed is killing us.

What happened to the VIX?

It showed a spike to 38 at the open on the SharpCharts, but now that spike is gone. Is someone manipulating the VIX to get people to think there is capitulation?:notrust:

 

[luv2read]

Great link. IMO.

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/2008/05/more-on-banking-system.html

Hooray for Sen. Bunning!

 

[clester]

Sell the rally again?

 

[James48843]

Here is what is different about today:

Oil now at $133. Oil at a point that if it falls much further, then that will be clear sign something has fundementally changed in the oil bubble. We'have had oil running in a higher direction for ages, and if this is not just a fluke, but a real end of the oil bubble, the market will like that, at least for a while.

Keep your fingers crossed that oil continues to drop.

Note- in the last two days, corn and ethanol have also fallen hard. Commodities- that's leading the break.

 

[tsptalk]

Sell the rally again?

The trend continues to say so, but I am anticipating a change in trend for a spell, based on the overwhelming bearish sentiment. So no, I would not sell this rally unless it is for an intraday trade. Eventually the scared money will take some profits today, but not for long - I hope.

 

[Spaf]

Ok! I saw the quote of the day over on CNBC:​

The Shorts ate my company​

:laugh:​

 

[tsptalk]

It's discusting that these financial companies are blaming short sellers. I guess it had nothing to do with them losing billions of dollars in bad loans. There's always a scapegoat.

 

[James48843]

Note of caution here:

Right now we are not yet above 1240 on the S&P, and that means we haven't broken the downward spirial on the P&F chart yet. And to put things into perspective, we haven't yet reached back to where we were on Friday's close last week.

Got my fingers crossed that this is it, but that last 1238-1240 stretch is proving to be difficult. We still have 40 minutes ...