Market Talk / July 13 - 19

[James48843]

Tom-

You hit the nail on the head with today's commentary. I am thinking exactly the same things.

Except you really didn't have to put in that part about having a 500 point down day. Ouch.

We've GOT to get a reversal here, at least for a short time.

And Asia and Europe are both in shambles this morning- with some huge one day down numbers floating across.

Oh, the pain.

 

[Warrenlm]

With one exception. Tom says " If I had less than 5-years before retirement, I would instead be taking the defensive play and get into the G-fund. "

But I would think he means 5 years before needing to make withdrawals, either by RMD or to meet expenses.

 

[CountryBoy]

This is worth reading.

http://www.viewzone.com/money.html

Very interesting read, I guess I need to increase my position in lead. I've read bits and pieces of the articles and comments mentioned, but never had it all brought together. It makes ya think.

CB

 

[tsptalk]

But I would think he means 5 years before needing to make withdrawals, either by RMD or to meet expenses.

I tweaked it to make that more clear. Thanks!

 

[tsptalk]

We've GOT to get a reversal here, at least for a short time.

And Asia and Europe are both in shambles this morning- with some huge one day down numbers floating across.

Oh, the pain.

Yeah, we may be seeing capitulation overseas so maybe we are close here.

Since I have made one IFT, I can actually move to 100% I-fund for move #2, and still use that last G fund transfer later if I need it. I may make that move if we see a big capitulation/reversal before the transfer deadline when it comes, to try to catch the overseas rebound. Of course fair value adjustments could take that advantage away.

 

[James48843]

VIX
Index Value:29.47Trade Time:Jul 14Change:

0.99 (3.48%)

 

[hessian]

Yeah, we may be seeing capitulation overseas so maybe we are close here.
Since I have made one IFT, I can actually move to 100% I-fund for move #2, and still use that last G fund transfer later if I need it. I may make that move if we see a big capitulation/reversal before the transfer deadline when it comes, to try to catch the overseas rebound. Of course fair value adjustments could take that advantage away.

Hi Tom,
I agree with concern expressed over not being able to IFT again later in July -after making a final move back to G). I did bolt back to G yesterday, but I am uncomfortable about it, as you said (but I am in the <5 yr boat).

I just wanted to ask: that on the "emotional chart," we currently seem to be in maybe "panic" phase - maybe not even there yet! - & we are watching for capitulation...
But, as the cycle shows, we then still have "despondency," and "depression," to go thru, before "hope" emerges. I suppose I'm just asking whether these latter phases can take some time as well? - just asking as the emotional rollercoaster this time seems especially windy.

Thank you for your daily commentaries - "always a must-read!"
VR

 

[clester]

I know the VIX is over 30 which is a contrarian sign. The issue I have is that everyone is talking about it and looking for the reversal. CNBC keeps pumping that idea. When everyone expects something to happen it may not. I hope I'm wrong.

 

[Spaf]

Today opened a bit gloomy with major indicies down. The DOW finally broke 11,000 (downward).

Oil was still in the $145.00 range.

Doom and gloom were discussing falling home prices and rising energy costs.

Government folks at CNBC were cooking up something, whatever!.......

Oh well we have our poison. The only investment in TSP is to stay the course. Thank goodness they are index funds.

View attachment 4266

Four Horsemen of the apocalypse


Fundamentals ....... Horsemen ........ Horses

Inflation ............... Inflate ........... Gouger
Economics
..(Energy) ............. Krude ............ Fillerup
Interest Rates ....... Rats .............. Squeezee
Earnings ............... Earnie ............ Layoffer

PS: Gold wasa going up!

 

[James48843]

VIX:
Index Value: 30.65

Change:

2.17 (7.62%)

 

[James48843]

I am in despondency, bordering on depression.

 

[tsptalk]

Hi Tom,
I agree with concern expressed over not being able to IFT again later in July -after making a final move back to G). I did bolt back to G yesterday, but I am uncomfortable about it, as you said (but I am in the <5 yr boat).

I just wanted to ask: that on the "emotional chart," we currently seem to be in maybe "panic" phase - maybe not even there yet! - & we are watching for capitulation...
But, as the cycle shows, we then still have "despondency," and "depression," to go thru, before "hope" emerges. I suppose I'm just asking whether these latter phases can take some time as well? - just asking as the emotional rollercoaster this time seems especially windy.

Thank you for your daily commentaries - "always a must-read!"
VR

Thanks hessian -
Panic is not quite giving up, while capitulation is. In frustration, investors start to buy a rebound after selling at the lows. My thinking is those bottom emotion in the cycle will come in an Aug/Sep/Oct meltdown, after a rally, giving bulls the feeling of, "buying stocks will never work".

 

[hessian]

I am in despondency, bordering on depression.

James, perhaps you right (fear and panic have similar effect on me -confused)
Not fun either way.
11:20 am - nice bottoming tail (at the moment), but will it last? Broken support. I hate what's happening, but IMHO, its Big Dogs feeding.
My quess is still expect rallys to be sold (intra-day/daily).

Tom,
I just saw your explanation!! -Thanks

 

[tsptalk]

VIX:
Index Value: 30.65

Change:

2.17 (7.62%)

:nuts: finally!

 

[James48843]

Now VIX is falling off a cliff, as S&P begins to head back down again.

Talk about mixed signals....

 

[Guest2]

Concerning the VIX, do we want it to close above 30,
or just to hit above 30 during intraday action ?

 

[tsptalk]

Hitting it is good. It could be what is triggering the rally as many were waiting for 30. Although a test of 30 is possible later today or this week.

 

[Braveheart]

Concerning the VIX, do we want it to close above 30,
or just to hit above 30 during intraday action ?

Market is all over the place. The spikes are so big this is programs working overtime here. I will predict at 2:30 PM EST there will be a drop and we close down today.

There is no way people are buying into this crap right now there is a push to get financials up only to unload. I could be wrong but this is one day I am glad I am not in the market. The crooks are at play as Robo states and when they act like this it can't /won't end well. JMO

 

[Braveheart]

Hitting it is good. It could be what is triggering the rally as many were waiting for 30. Although a test of 30 is possible later today or this week.

Programs tied to the VIX at 30 signal a buy but alot of pressure because many see a suckers rally and the news is depressing. So it must be time to go all in. LoL

 

[Guest2]

Hitting it is good. It could be what is triggering the rally as many were waiting for 30. Although a test of 30 is possible later today or this week.

Market is all over the place. The spikes are so big this is programs working overtime here. I will predict at 2:30 PM EST there will be a drop and we close down today.

There is no way people are buying into this crap right now there is a push to get financials up only to unload. I could be wrong but this is one day I am glad I am not in the market. The crooks are at play as Robo states and when they act like this it can't /won't end well. JMO

Thanks to the both of you !