Market Talk / Jan. 7 - 13

Sort by newest Sort by date
Caution​

A breadth indicator compares market advances vs declines.
Attached is the weekly chart for one year, for the New York Stock Exchange.​

NYAD.gif

Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com​

The advances from mid summer 2006 were great. However, momentum has declined as of late and the market is in a range bound condition. Whether it breaks to the upside or the down side is unknown, hence the caution condition. Some say that the market is due a pullback (correction). Others say it's just catching it's breath to be more bullish.

Who knows, no insider trading here!

Looking at the top TSPTalk leaders 70% (by Spaf math) have gone to the G-fund. So now is a good time to consider your risk vs reward.

Regards, and be careful!........:)..........Spaf
 
08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.0. Early indications suggest yesterday's modest buying efforts may carry over into this morning's open. Oil prices plunging more than 3% and falling below a key support level of $55/bbl is the most noticeable reason behind the positive disposition.
 
09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.8. A positive bias continues to hold in the futures trade, which should translate into a higher open for the indices. Tumbling oil prices remain the primary source of early support for investors. However, with BP plc (BP) saying Q4 production and profitability fell from a year earlier, further deterioration in oil also serves as a reminder that earnings estimates for the engine behind double-digit profit growth for the S&P 500 for so many quarters (Energy) will likely be revised lower. Thus, the subsequent loss of leadership throughout the Energy sector today may act as somewhat of an offset and minimize blue-chip gains.
 
Just ran across this tech analysis. Not a bad read.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...50D-486C59A9BBFD}&siteid=myyahoo&dist=myyahoo

THE TECHNICAL INDICATOR
Technical cross currents greet the New Year

By Michael Ashbaugh
Last Update: 10:47 AM ET Jan 9, 2007

CINCINNATI (MarketWatch) - On its face, the U.S. markets have started 2007 relatively flat.
At Monday's close, each major U.S. benchmark had posted the following year-to-date performance:
• The S&P 500 had slipped six points.
• The Dow industrials had dropped 40 points.
• The Nasdaq had gained 23 points.
Yet while it's admittedly early, the numbers above match a potential technical shift taking shape. Namely, the Nasdaq may be poised to reassert its leadership role.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Just noticed the link didn’t post right. It works if you copy it and paste it into your browser. :embarrest:
 
I just checked the gainer vs losers and a noticeable divergence has appeared in the last half hour between the two.....losers are winning in issues and volume..
 
Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
January 9, 2007 Closing ​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................S&P was up, down, up, down, up, down, up, down!

Con-Yak...................................But still range bound (S&P about 1410 --1430)!

Jester-Yak................................I need a barf bag!

Doodles:
Socks ended mixed for the day.
Stops.......................................Alert (-1%).....Trail (-2%)
.....$SPX..1412.11......................1413 broken....1399
.....IJR........65.21......................66.26 broken....65.56 broken
.....EFA.......72.37......................72.60 broken....71.90

Dollar.......................................84.75 up +0.14 for the day.

Lube (NYM) Closed at..................55.64, dn -0.45 for the day.
Oil Markers................................<60= ok, 60-65= worry, >65= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Yellow.

Tin Box.
Leaders Tally (Top 10 (7+3)..............6..........0.........1......... 2.........1
Leaders Play...............................G-fund, F-fund, C-fund, S-fund, I-fund
 
06:19 am : FTSE...6161.50...-34.60...-0.6%. DAX...6556.25...-58.12...-0.9%.
06:19 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -10.3.
06:19 am : Nikkei...16942.40...-295.37...-1.7%. Hang Seng...19568.34...-329.74...-1.7%.
 
08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -10.5. Earnings season officially got underway on a solid note last night, after Alcoa (AA) topped Wall Street forecasts. The Dow component is up more than 4% in pre-market action. However, huge losses overseas, which have been highlighted by a continued slide in emerging markets amid global risk reduction efforts, are contributing to an added sense of nervousness in the early going that leaves the futures market trading sharply below fair value.
 
08:32 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -6.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -10.5. Still shaping up to be a weak start for stocks as futures continue to languish below fair value. Just hitting the wires, the Commerce Dept. reports that the U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed in November to $58.2 bln (consensus -$59.5 bln), its lowest since July 2005. Reaction in both stocks and bonds, however, has so far been muted as investors await a reading on wholesale inventories (10:00 ET) and upcoming testimony from Chicago Fed President Moskow (12:30 ET) to perhaps provide a clearer read on the economic outlook.
 
Just looked at the VIX and it has been increasing, now at 12.11 and up 1.76% today. Seems to have broken through some upper resistance. We’re not near the high we saw last June, but we are creeping up.
 
9:52 am PT Bond Watch: Fed-spoke (BONDX) : The comments from Moskow were essentially a do-over, although according to Bloomberg he did not pull out the "additional firming of policy may yet be necessary." The comments, included the usual suspects: inflation remains the lead concern of the Fed & has been too high, tight job market leaves them "vigilant," growth has moderated but should improve this year, housing remains in a weakening mode but is otherwise not spilling over into broader economy. The market twitched lower a bit on inflationary comments, but quickly returned to square one. The Q&A should also be tame, but reporters laying in wait may elicit some candor...The 10-yr is currently -08/32nds yielding 4.686%.
 
Moskow, who is a voting Fed member this year, said 30 minutes ago that he remains optimistic the economy will pick up in coming months and return to its potential growth rate of around 3.0%, also noting that housing is not spilling over into broader economy. However, with the threat of higher inflation still Moskow's "predominant concern," his mixed remarks have done little to help set a more definitive tone to today's lackluster trading action
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

TommyIV
  • Article Article
TSP Talk Weekley Wrap Up - Members Take Profits
Replies
0
Views
2K
TommyIV
TommyIV
TommyIV
  • Article Article
TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up - Thriving Amidst Market Swings
Replies
0
Views
2K
TommyIV
TommyIV
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - More new highs for the S&P and Nasdaq
Replies
0
Views
1K
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - The broader market sells off while big tech holds up
Replies
0
Views
241
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - The bulls are back
Replies
0
Views
173
tsptalk
tsptalk
Back
Top