Market Talk / February 25th - March 3rd

Spaf · Mar 2, 2007

fabijo said:
That's what I was also thinking, especially considering there were four previous down days before the big down day. The hammer usually marks the end of a trend - in this case a reversal of a short downtrend.

I wouldn't suggest that the battle is won! There could be more clashes to come. This might take a while.

Fivetears · Mar 2, 2007

FUTURES

S&P 500 +1.60 1406.50 1:16am

NASDAQ -1.00 1756.75 0:51am

Dow Jones +15.00 12267.00 1:20am

weatherweenie · Mar 2, 2007

Briefing.com-09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -7.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -16.5. Futures trade is off its worst levels but still point to a sharply lower open for stocks. St. Louis Fed President Poole dismissing fears of a recession, saying he sees nothing in carry trades that is disruptive at this stage and that stock market valuation "does not seem to be elevated" at this time appear to be contributing to the bounce off early lows. Nonetheless, the market's "sell first, think later" mentality continues to overshadow the fact that market fundamentals have not changed and that valuations on stocks are actually quite good now

James48843 · Mar 2, 2007

I'm thinking the S&P won't be happy until it touches 1380 or 1382. Then I think we will have a good opportunity.

Chaser · Mar 2, 2007

The S&P 500 was at 1381.09 at 9:45 Thursday.

James48843 · Mar 2, 2007

Chaser said:
The S&P 500 was at 1381.09 at 9:45 Thursday.

Thanks- I didn't see that- was on the road yesterday and missed that on the chart.

That then confirms it is a support level.

It was interesting to see today it get back down 1387, and bounce off that once.

Now, let's see if it will hold another day on Monday. If so, then I think we may have formed a bottom.

Still too early to tell, though. I got caught on a dead cat bounce this week shifting, and dead cats got me before, so I am a little but more hesitent this time around to pour back in.

But it is good to see some resistance in the 1380's.

weatherweenie · Mar 2, 2007

Looks like some last minute selling taking place.

weatherweenie · Mar 2, 2007

CNBC reporting that this was the worst week on the Dow since March 2003.

weatherweenie · Mar 2, 2007

G +.01
F +.02
C -.18
S -.31
I -.28

robo · Mar 3, 2007

Friday, March 02, 2007

I previously commented on the irregular flat wave correction in the indices here.

As of the close today, a clear 5 wave structure down appears complete. My only concern is that the mkt has not tagged the 200 day MA or EMA, but there maybe too much consensus on this for the mkt to oblige. If this is what's going on then there should be some more minor downside, possibly a lower low on monday/tuesday, but a big rally should start thereafter. There is no wiggle room here with this count, either the dow rallies, fills the gap at 12650 and makes a new high right away,no ABC down, no hanging around etc. or the decline continues and i am wrong(won't be the first or the last time). The 200 day MA could get tagged at a decline from a higher level. My intermediate term target for the dow based on this count is 13600

http://fibo-count.blogspot.com/

robo · Mar 3, 2007

Thursday, March 01, 2007

"Hyperactive 3rd Graders Playing Musical Chairs"
That was how Sam Stovall of S&P described the last few days in the stock market and it very succintly sums up the action. The government of China engineered a domestic stock market decline to quell rampant overspeculation and the contagion then spread around the globe within hours. The Chinese market, miniscule in size compared to the rest of the world's markets, has had an out-of-proportion reaction and that's certainly not an adult response to what is clearly a rational pricking of a nascent bubble and not the end of the great Chinese growth engine. Yet, the Chicken Littles on Wall Street (and even more so in Europe where they should really know better) are running around, crying that the sky is falling.

Meanwhile, nothing has changed in the economy. In fact, the lagging economic reports are just beginning to throw cold water on the idea the bond market has been having about there being a recession and for a need for the Federal Reserve to cut rates later in the year. It's true that bonds are up this week, but that was mostly due to Chicken Littles fleeing the stock market and buying bonds as a "safe haven." When the reality of a very strong economy -- including an inflation rate that's still above the Fed's target range -- finally sinks in, bonds will fall like the sky the Chicken Littles are so afraid of.

Thursday's market opened with a retest of Tuesday's lows and lower lows were put in for most of them. But, the buyers showed up and pushed the market back up the hill so that, by the close, most of the losses had been recouped. All this gave the adults in the market a grand buying opportunity, of course.

Despite the bounce, the "China Syndome" still has the potential to drag stocks down near term. But, that is likely to just give investors additional buying opportunities in a market which has not given many opportunities in the last nine months.
http://marketclues.blogspot.com/

rokid · Mar 3, 2007

So did anyone predict this last week?

So did anyone predict the Chinese contagion last week? On the other hand, is this a situation where everyone expected (wanted) a correction and the Chinese market's fall provided an excuse to pull out of the U.S., European, and Japanese markets. Finally, someone is buying. What do they know or are they just engaged in wishful thinking?

Spaf · Mar 3, 2007