Market Talk / February 25th - March 3rd

[ATCJeff]

Tom,

Any change in your three legs of the market? Hearing the "psychology" word many times this morning.

 

[weatherweenie]

Briefing.com:
Fears of a carry-trade unwinding, after Japanese Vice Minister for Finance said "the yen carry trade is not one way," exacerbating pessimism; Bonds catching flight-to-quality bid

 

[mayday]

Tom,

Any change in your three legs of the market? Hearing the "psychology" word many times this morning.

I've heard this before {Confidence moves the market.}

 

[Wheels]

I agree. I think were going way down this morning (100 pts) then by closing were either flat or up a little. I'm thinking today wil be a +FV in the I fund. I'm also moving to the G today.

I'm hoping for the same, but you seem to be expecting it. I'm not holding my breath.

 

[ATCJeff]

I agree. I think were going way down this morning (100 pts) then by closing were either flat or up a little. I'm thinking today wil be a +FV in the I fund. I'm also moving to the G today.

WRONG!!!!!!!! -165

 

[ATCJeff]

Now I guess we have to consider a dead cat bounce for tomorrow. Hmmm

 

[tsptalk]

Big bounce but it is common at 10 am ET to get a reversal from the early action. This is a particularly large reversal though. I'd wait until 10:30 or 11 before making any decisions. Let the traders do their thing and then see where things settle.

 

[ATCJeff]

Manufacturing Report is a positive. Up from Feburary!

 

[ATCJeff]

Big bounce but it is common at 10 am ET to get a reversal from the early action. This is a particularly large reversal though. I'd wait until 10:30 or 11 before making any decisions. Let the traders do their thing and then see where things settle.

The manufacturing report is lifting the markets.

 

[nnuut]

Hey! MAGIC, I hope it's enough to do something! NAH! Ya never know

 

[weatherweenie]

Whatever happens the volume is going to be big. Over 2 billion traded on the NYSE just after Noon Eastern.

 

[Spaf]

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
March 01, 2007 Closing​

Yak, Le Charts, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tally Can

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................US Socks hold the line!

Con-Yak...................................Global market wobbles!

Jester-Yak................................Bunkers are always muddy when it rains!

Le Charts
Dajaview

Charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com​

Doodles:
Stops.......................................Alert (-1%)....Trail (-2%)
.....SPX........1403.17 -3.65..........XXXX............XXXX

Dollar........................................83.73 +0.19 for the day.

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at...............62.00 +0.25 for the day.
Oil Markers.................................<60= ok, 60-65= worry, >65= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles................................Yellow.

Tally Can
Top 10 last 12 mo.........................2.0 ......0.0 ......1.3 .....1.3 .....5.5
TSP Funds...................................G-fund, F-fund, C-fund, S-fund, I-fund.

 

[Birchtree]

Spaf,

Would that be an evening star candle stick formation today. OK, what is it?

 

[robo]

TSP activity increases following stock market plunge
By Amelia Gruber
agruber@govexec.com


Investors in the government's 401(k)-style retirement savings plan showed some signs of shaky nerves after the steep drop in the Dow Jones industrial average Tuesday.


The Thrift Savings Plan Web site experienced increased traffic as participants checked their accounts, and the number of transfers among funds processed Tuesday night reached the fourth-highest level so far this year, said TSP spokesman Tom Trabucco.


The TSP processed 12,627 interfund transfers overnight, Trabucco said. Though that is well short of the highest number of transfers in 2007 -- 16,393 on Jan. 3 -- it is still a "pretty big number," he said, noting that there tend to be more transfers at the beginning of the year, because it is a standard time for participants to reallocate their investments.


Most of the transfers Tuesday night represented movement out of the three basic TSP stock funds and into the less risky G and F funds, which invest in government securities and fixed-income bonds.


Participants took $200 million out of the I Fund, which invests in international stocks. The fund closed at $22.67 Tuesday, down $0.74 from the previous close and up 0.71 percent for the month. Investors took about $109 million out of the C Fund, which tracks the Standard & Poor's 500 Index of stocks in the largest domestic companies. It closed at $15.53 Tuesday, down $0.55 from the day before and 2.51 percent for the month.


They also transferred about $109 million out of the S Fund, which invests in small- and mid-sized companies by tracking the Dow Jones Wilshire 4500 Index. It finished Tuesday at $19.24, down $0.65 from the previous day and 0.57 percent for the month.


Of the total amount moved out of these funds, about $370 million went to the G Fund, which did not change Tuesday and was up 0.34 percent for the month, and about $49 million flowed to the F Fund, which changed very little Tuesday and was up 1.71 percent for the month.


TSP officials, however, recommended against shifting money in response to short-term market fluctuations.


"We always advise participants to have a long-term investment horizon and to stick with that plan over the long term," Trabucco said.


Plan participants who are uncomfortable with the movement in the markets should consider placing their money in the life-cycle (L) funds, which invest in a mix of the basic funds that grows more conservative as employees near retirement age, he said.


Trabucco expects activity to remain elevated Wednesday. He said investors may have trouble logging on to their accounts on the TSP Web site, and if they do, they should try the TSP's toll-free phone number: 877-968-3778.


As of Wednesday afternoon, the markets were rebounding somewhat. The Dow Jones was up about 0.7 percent after a more than 3 percent drop Tuesday, and the S&P 500 was up about 0.8 percent, also on the heels of a more than 3 percent plunge. Tuesday's decline -- the steepest in about four years -- was precipitated by a drop in Chinese stocks.

http://www.govexec.com/story_page.cfm?articleid=36229&printerfriendlyVers=1&



12,627 IFT's is not much money in the overall market. Some Hedge Funds move over 100 million daily. Zen talks about Flipper and his 90 million dollar moves.

If 12,627 is high, I wonder what the average is? 200 million out of my favorite, the I Fund.

 

[robo]

March 1st, 2007
Correction and Non-Correction Plan
By Bill
As I mentioned in Predictive Modeling and Data Bombs, I will be watching the reaction of the markets to the various econ data that gets released. It appears that the pervasive economic fears amongst professional investors have metastasized into a psychosomatic illness in the markets, at least temporarily. The models are flashing “buy” to me, indicating there’s nothing technically unstable with the markets, but no model is perfect – even Cindy Crawford had a mole.

The last time a paradigm of fear like this took over the markets was May 2006, when the thesis became “the Fed will wreck the economy while fighting inflation.” There were two days of selling, a bounce day, a retracement day, and another waterfall of selling. The market got a good correction because of it, and some tests of the multi-year channel bottom in the weeks following. We heard a few calls for the “end of the world” along the way, but it turned out to be one of the best buying opportunities of the last few years, and one that many people missed.

About three weeks ago, I emailed a commenter the following: “If and when I think it’s appropriate, I’ll join the bears, but just for a cup of coffee. I’ve got nothing against occasional bearishness, but bearishness only pays in a bear market, or actually during and not before a correction - last time I checked, at least.” Bear profit opportunities are short-lived, pun intended.

I think that time may be here, and if that’s so, then the models were wrong. I will wait for the market reaction to the data, because the data itself is meaningless, and if I implement the “correction plan,” I will leave a comment on this post. If my server problems continue, I will leave a post titled “correction plan” at the MarketThoughts forum.

Correction Plan

If I execute the correction plan, I will note it in the comments here and/or at the MarketThoughts forum. The “non-correction plan” is to hold the status quo.

I will hold the stocks that came to me from the Value screener, as I believe these will hold up the best and recover the fastest during a correction. These are Ennis (EBF), Ingles (IMKTA), Mohawk (MHK), and Ultrapar (UGP). All other positions will be sold.

Shorts will come from the Anti-Value screener, because while these overvalued momentum plays work well in a bull market, they suffer prodigiously in a correction. Ideas at the moment are AKAM, HOLX, MNST, TCO, VCLK, and WEBX, because of weak bounces yesterday and very high 126-day returns.

I will also be looking for “bounce longs” when possible.

Again, note that if I execute the correction plan, I will say so in the comments here and/or at the MarketThoughts forum. The “non-correction plan” is to hold the status quo.

http://billakanodoodahs.com/

 

[robo]

Some comments from a Blog site:



Looks like Tuesday was really a panic among the professionals and the semi-professionals - as excluding ETF activity, equity funds actually had a net inflow for the week ending February 28, 2007:
---------------------------------------------------------------
Mutual Fund Inflows/Outflows for the Week Ending February 28, 2007

Equity Fund Outflows -$3.8 Bil; Taxable Bond Fund Inflows $1.2 Bil
02/28/2007

Including ETF activity, Equity funds report net cash outflows totaling -$3.848 billion in the week ended 2/28/07 with Domestic funds reporting net outflows of -$4.271 billion and Non-domestic funds reporting net inflows of $422 million;

Excluding ETF activity, Equity funds report net cash inflows totaling $748 million with domestic funds reporting net inflows of $294 million and Non-domestic funds reporting net inflows totaling $454 million;

Exchange Traded (Equity) funds report net outflows of -$4.596 billion with the largest flows:
-$2.997 Bil from the SPDR Tr Series I fund;
-$2.064 Bil from the iShares Russell 2000 Index fund;
$1.120 Bil to the Nasdaq-100 Index Tracking Stk fund;
-$1.012 Bil from the DIAMONDS fund;

Excluding ETF activity International funds report net inflows of $204 million;

Excluding ETF activity Taxable Bond funds report net inflows totaling $1.343 billion;

Money Market funds report net cash outflows totaling -$23.654 billion;

Municipal Bond funds report net cash inflows of $496 million.

 

[Birchtree]

I thought for a brief moment that the folks the article was talking about were showing some investment acumen and were moving G money to the stock funds, but alas. A very classic mistake - but no harm done, they'll just miss the next train.

 

[robo]

I thought for a brief moment that the folks the article was talking about were showing some investment acumen and were moving G money to the stock funds, but alas. A very classic mistake - but no harm done, they'll just miss the next train.

Sell when they are yelling, and Buy when they are crying! Plenty of tears on wall street and more too come. I have started a shopping list and it's growing. Japan and Taiwan are on my list. We are getting close!


http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ewt&x=59&y=6

 

[Spaf]

Spaf,

Would that be an evening star candle stick formation today. OK, what is it?

I would say it's pretty close to a hammer!
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/candlesticks.htm

 

[fabijo]

I would say it's pretty close to a hammer!
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/candlesticks.htm

That's what I was also thinking, especially considering there were four previous down days before the big down day. The hammer usually marks the end of a trend - in this case a reversal of a short downtrend.