Market Talk / February 25th - March 3rd

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The word is the stock exchange is still processing sell orders due to the computer bottle neck. We could get a large gap down in the morning. I don't expect to see the dippers tomorrow, but one never knows.
 
anyone know a link to moniter the Shanghai Composite Index.

It opens 8:00 p.m. eastern standard time.
 
robo said:
The word is the stock exchange is still processing sell orders due to the computer bottle neck. We could get a large gap down in the morning. I don't expect to see the dippers tomorrow, but one never knows.
Click to expand...

Rhetorical question.:D

So if this is true. Will we get a lower buy price for those of us that bought today (if the close is adjusted down more) or will we get the ....................:blink:
 
Not pretty right now. Gotta be a glass is half full guy/gal at this point. I chose not to go I fund today because I had a hunch Asia was not done. They could still pull back up before the afternoon session is over. My other fear was that the EZ in not going to be real motivated until it sees the USM open. My big gamble was the C fund today. My pucker factor is extreme right now!:sick:
 
FundSurfer said:
Yep, just as I thought. Spaf is using new monkeys. Need to use the ones with a little more experiance. Get some grey haired stinky ones with a track record.

Spaf, I'd recommend using the prior 12 months top 10 list. That would be a rolling list of people with a more consistant higher return. I know who I watch and knew you were looking at a different set of folks. JMHO
Click to expand...

Well we will look at the same folks for a while. I'll use your Leader Tally Chart, Top 10 Last 12 months, posted 01-31-07

Here is what it looks like: View attachment 1436
 
We've heard this story before. Bull markets do not like company, the market will do everything it can to make the majority gun shy and keep the bears from recognizing the prevailing trend. Liquidity is the difference between what could be a "crash" and what is just an emotional reaction. This drop needs to be held in perspective; only a 3% move. I will sell a beauty tomorrow and do some extreme buying. I say bring on the pain - no pain means no gain.
 
Birchtree---

I would think that this would be an incredible opportunity for some of these companies that are doing buybacks of their stocks. I will be looking for some of these companies.

Just trying to find a silver lining in this cloud.
 
Tuesday, February 27th, 2007 at 6:43 pm
Blood On The Street!
By Bill
It was a painful day for the equity longs, myself included. The index has knocked out all of its gains for 2007, and the day knocked out most of mine, too. Ouch! That’s gonna leave a mark! If you’re still on the sidelines, maybe this is what you’ve been waiting for. The S&P 500 has seen its 2% correction, its 2% down day, and an end to its streak of monthly gains. Me, I’m already long. Sometimes it feels good, sometimes it hurts.

If gold knew something last week, it had forgotten whatever it was by about 2:30 p.m. EST today. Gold was no protection today and was little consolation to those heavy in the precious metals as opposed to the general stock market. The $XAU (gold bugs index) was down twice as much as the S&P 500, and GLD was down more in percentage terms than the S&P 500 or the Dow. Funny stuff, because the gold hucksters are paying top dollar for commercial time on Bloomers and Bubblevision tonight, I’ve seen four so far just during dinner! Oil company stocks and the USO got their share of the caning, too. It’s of interest only because those are popular sectors, but I’m not long (or short) any PMs or oil.

The TRIN is at levels indicative of panic. According to Henry, these levels are higher than the day when ol’ Vic Niederhoffer got his famous margin call, higher than on Black Monday, and higher than when Ike had his heart attack and the market fell –6.6% in a day. Yep, it’s a historic day.

The first day of the 2006 correction saw the VIX up +13.61% to 14.19 and the CPCE (equity put/call ratio or EPCR) up +12.50% to 0.72. Today’s readings have the VIX up +64.22% to 18.31 and the CPCE up +18.9% to 0.88, a new high for 2007 and the highest since October 2006, when the S&P 500 passed its May 2006 highs and the retail crowd was banking on a double top.

Was this a 90% down day?

What caused all this today? Was it “just” the “China Syndrome,” or was it a fresh batch of economic fears? We may know in a few months, or we may never know. It certainly was a crescendo of panic selling.

Emotionally it is really rough to step in and buy at a time like this. Heck, it’s hard for me not to sell at a time like this! But the damage is done and, given the amount of panic sitting out in the marketplace, this might just be the infamous “Blood on the Street!” that we have all heard about. Amazingly, there are a few with nads of steel to buy low, also some in the comments section like Nova Law and Born2Code.

The market mover data tomorrow is revised GDP. I will gameplan two “what ifs,” one for good data and one for bad data, and move with whichever seems best in the morning, having the luxury of watching the overnight markets. Technically we should get at least a bounce out of the fear factor today, but I think at this point the data will decide.

The last correction in the S&P 500, which started in May 2006, was similarly data-driven, and you may recall that it hit some sectors harder than others. I remember that well, as I had been long gold producers like Northgate Minerals (NXG), copper players like Southern Copper (PCU), and industrials like Nucor (NUE) for over a year going into that date. Similar to last year, if we get a continued selloff, the bottom of the multi-year trend channel will be my estimated target, approx. 1300 give or take. If we get econ data that the markets like, we’ll probably stabilize near here. The “bad data” plan will probably be something like (1) keep the value stocks, (2) ditch the rest, and (3) short the momentum stocks. The “good data” plan will be essentially status quo for the portfolio.

For those keeping track, my models generate odds of a close below the closing price the day when they were run, of either -5% below on the monthly model or -10% below on the annual model. That way we can look back and see if they were wrong (or right). Today we closed –3.6% from Friday before last. At that time, I thought the odds of a -5% inside a month were slim. Hah! We’ll see what happens

http://www.billakanodoodahs.com/2007/02/blood-on-the-street/


REDEFINING THE SELL-CLIMAX

http://www.lowrysreports.com/samples/90.pdf


JUST REMEMBER YOU ARE DOWN, BUT NOT BEATEN! THE WAR CONTINUES AND THE NEXT BATTLE COULD BE YOURS....

robo
 
On days like this (and maybe the next couple) it always helps to review how well one has done over the last 12 months or so. When we put these losses into a larger context, it helps to rationalize the current situation. This is not just so much PMA hocus-pocus, but can serve a legitimate purpose.

If you can manage to maintain appropriate perspective, it can help to avoid making emotional decisions, which are almost always wrong and ill timed. The danger for many of us will be selling at or near the bottom and then missing the following run-up and gains.

Steady hands and courageous hearts are what are called for in these circumstances.

There may be a few more bumps in the road, so hang on. And please, make your decisions based on strategy and not emotion.



Except for luck, you will almost always do better by following your plan.

Peace and blessings...
[FONT=&quot]


[/FONT]
 
Good support levels at SPX 1341 and SPX 1313. However, I hope we don't test them. My thinking is 1360 will old if we go that low, but it's only my opinion and the Market will do it's thing tomorrow. Plenty of fear and the exits will get crowed again tomorrow. Will the Bulls have a trick for the Bears or will they let it slide. We will all be watching that's for sure!

I hope we find support early tomorrow and it holds.
 
Last edited:
FUTURES
S&P 500
+1.80 1397.10 2/28 0:26am

NASDAQ
-1.25 1749.25 2/27 11:48pm

Dow Jones
+18.00 12198.00 2/28 0:03am
 
Hoping some of that OSM $ will come back home to help provide steady and stable recovery in USM. I took the hit in the C and think I will just stay untill it all comes back..and then some.
 
Futures look bright now, BUT let's see what they look like after some key economic news at 0830 EST.

Waiting...
 
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