Market Talk / February 11th - 17th

[mlk_man]

N. Korea agrees to nuclear disarmament

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070213/ap_on_re_as/koreas_nuclear

 

[Birchtree]

We could be getting set for another breadth thrust that could give us a simultaneous buy confirmation of the Primary Dow Theory. Lots of time left for a few short squeezes and some comfortable program buying. It's time to freak the bears back into hibernation.

 

[Birchtree]

Another new all-time high this afternoon on the DJUA.

 

[Birchtree]

Another new all-time high on the DJTA and only two points away from new all-time highs on the NYSE Composite.

I look to read uncle Ben's lips tomorrow: "Readings on core inflation have improved modestly in recent months and inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time".

The percentage of U.S. mutual fund assets in domestic stocks is the lowest since at least 1984. Cool!

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
February 13, 2007 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................Socks rally on business news!

Con-Yak...................................Krude climbs 2%.

Jester-Yak................................Fed yak nears.

Doodles:
Socks ended up for the day.
Stops.......................................Alert (-1%)....Trail (-2%)
.....$SPX.......1444.26 +10.89.......1436.............1422
.....IJR..........68.34 +0.64............68.18............67.48
.....EFA.........75.30 +0.95............74.60............73.90

Dollar........................................84.70 -0.42 for the day.

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at...............59.06 +1.25 for the day.
Oil Markers.................................<60= ok, 60-65= worry, >65= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles................................Yellow.

Tin Box.
Leaders Ratio / Top 10 .................2.3 ......0.0 ......0.2 ......6.8 .....0.8 ....07 leaders
Leaders Play................................G-fund, F-fund, C-fund, S-fund, I-fund.

 

[Spaf]

The Kingdom of TSP
February 13, 2007​

To the charts​

Yep, somewhere between support and resistance!​

Chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com​

We are inside of a trading range. We could keep playing the dips. We could go to the down side. We could go to the upside. However, in order to establish a new trend we have to break out of resistance and establish a new higher low. To fall back into the trading range would be a partial bull trap.

Three options! In retirement I can't see being aggressive at this point and elect to hold for capital preservation. Otherwise it's dicey!

The MACD was reset (8, 17, 9) to indicate a buy signal. We would normally want a confirmation from a 2nd indicator also.

 

[weatherweenie]

Market likes what Berny is saying, so far.

 

[FundSurfer]

Will the morning hold? Or will there be a reversal? I think I'll hold on and wait before jumping off. Ride the bull up till it begins to slow or bleed red at or above the top of a channel and then jump off. The gains from this approach lately seem to outpace the loss at the beginning of a downturn.

 

[clester]

Top of the C fund channel about 1460?

 

[Birchtree]

We could easily do a tho over on that C fund channel today - watch for it.

 

[SkiUtah]

Painful DCA this time 'round' eh Birch...

 

[PokerPlayer]

Painful DCA this time 'round' eh Birch...

Those are nice problems to have ... keep riding the bull and collecting the green ... has anybody seen Cole Shivers lately?

 

[PokerPlayer]

Those are nice problems to have ... keep riding the bull and collecting the green ... has anybody seen Cole Shivers lately?

If not Mr. Shivers, how about BJ Schumacher ... ride them Bulls!

 

[SkiUtah]

Birchtree,

what has this latest meltup confirmed on the elliot wave?

Danke

 

[Birchtree]

The trend has been undeniable - a great lesson in what a third wave looks and feels like. No melt up yet, but the hoofs are coming. Wouldn't you like to see a 300 or 400 point day to the upside - that may signal the infamous epicenter of Primary wave 3 of Cycle wave 3. We have simultaneous new all-time highs today in the DJIA, DJTA, and DJUA. This could be the sentry moment for the bull to stampede. This is the longest amount of time in which the NYAD has remained in a bullish confirmation since the 2003 lows. The only time you can compare this structure would be with the 1950's period, and that was about a 10 year advance. Just waiting on the public to start getting in as individuals - the angle of ascent longer term on the NYAD says there is a continuing powerful trend of money flow. Take another look at 1995. Snort.

 

[FundSurfer]

Top of the C fund channel about 1460?

Here is my current chart of the C-fund. The last point is actually a little low since I estimated it at about 11:30 am today. I'd say the C-fund is slightly above the short term channel. I've had better luck charting the C-fund than the S&P 500. Don't ask me why, they look almost the same.
View attachment 1381

 

[350zCommTech]

For two days in a row now, Cramer has been pushing some home builder stocks. IMHO, he's an idiot for doing so. I find it funny that these CNBC talking heads see a bottom in the housing market when even the builders themselves can't see a bottom. I would not be surprise if Cramer comes out, a couple of weeks from now, telling everybody to sell homebiulder stocks. Remember his push on tech in early January? Two weeks later he gave a sell signal for tech because of the tech calendar trade. Something is fishy with the homebuilders. And don't forget last week's HSBC news.

 

[Birchtree]

Another good day for pin action - perhaps the new all-time high in the transports will push the DJIA up another 50 points before the close. Am I starting to get greedy - you bet. The public needs more encouragement to spend their money to grow their assets. All they really need is superlative bull manure. Even GE is finally kicking today. I want more Maypo.

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
February 14, 2007 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................Rally extends on Fed's upbeat outlook!

Con-Yak...................................(No comments from the bears).

Jester-Yak................................Krude pulled back too!

Doodles:
Socks ended up for the day.
Stops.......................................Alert (-1%)....Trail (-2%)
.....$SPX.......1455.30 +11.04.......1441.............1427
.....IJR.............68.53 +0.19.........68.18............67.48
.....EFA............76.32 +1.02.........75.62............74.92

Dollar........................................84.18 -0.52 for the day.

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at...............58.00 -1.06 for the day.
Oil Markers.................................<60= ok, 60-65= worry, >65= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles................................Yellow.

Tin Box.
Leaders Ratio / Top 10 .................3.0 ......0.0 ......0.6 ......4.9 .....1.5 ....07 leaders
Leaders Play................................G-fund, F-fund, C-fund, S-fund, I-fund.

 

[fedgolfer]

even barney frank loves Ben!!! Come on markets, follow through today.