Market Talk / Feb. 4 - 10

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Spaf

Spaf

Honorary Hall of Fame Member
The Kingdom of TSP
Sunday Weekly
Early Edition
February 04, 2007​

Fortuneteller.gif

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................The economic slowdown appears to have been a pot-hole.

Con-Yak....................................Lube rises above $59!

Jester-Yak.................................Will the bulls rest?

Doodles:
TSP socks ended up for the week. Small caps break resistance, but trend is unclear.
Stops......................................Alert (-1%).....Trail (-2%)
.....$SPX..................................1434.39..........1420.39
.....$EMW...................................648.06...........642.06
.....EFA.......................................74.16............73.46

Dollar.......................................84.95 -0.29 for the week...$USD

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at..............59.02 +3.60 for the week...NYMEX
Oil Markers................................<60= ok, 60-65= worry, >65= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Yellow.

Tin Box.
TSPTalk Board Leaders Analysis.....View attachment 1353
Courtesy of Rokid's Weekly Account Tally​

TSP (week ending)......G=11.76..F=11.15..C=16.04..S=19.56..I=22.68
....(1 week past)........G=11.75..F=11.11..C=15.75..S=19.04..I=22.24
....(2 week past)........G=11.74..F=11.15..C=15.84..S=18.98..I=22.33
....(3 week past)........G=11.73..F=11.14..C=15.84..S=19.08..I=22.14
....(4 week past)........G=11.72..F=11.19..C=15.60..S=18.58..I=21.99

....(end of 2006)........G=11.71..F=11.14..C=15.69..S=18.76..I=22.22

Le Charts​

SP5000202.gif

EMW0202.gif

EFA0202.gif

Charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com​
 
Febuary 4th, 2007
Market Update:
By Dominick


It wasn’t easy to present yet another update last week that anticipated additional highs in the face of an outside down week, which has a great track record of being correct. The January 28th update stated:


“Could the reversal looking pattern only be part of a larger correction that’s stalling for time? When I look over many of my charts, the answer that pops out is yes. So, even though I can label a top is in, I won’t do it yet for several reasons. The sentiment on that drop wasn't what I wanted to see and, believe it or not, I have two very valid setups for additional highs. Another huge leg up isn't in the cards, but I'm not about to be short prematurely into the squeeze of all squeezes and get taken out of the position minutes before it turns.”


Once again, the market had most traders convinced last week the top was in only to leave them on the sidelines or, worse, short. It’s amazing the market simply won’t pull back and continues to grind upward leaving no one a chance to get in cheap.

I’m sure sentiment has played its part in recent weeks and is still fueling the markets’ move higher as the old tops appear on the radar screen. Last week started with some decent sentiment readings, but closed with everyone again throwing money into puts trying to be top pickers. Of course, sentiment can change in a day, but that’s what the numbers read as of Friday’s close.

Still, an interesting development occurred as a different tune arose from the bearish camp late in the week. Every single bear I spoke with on Thursday and Friday now wanted to buy after having fought the relentless upward move every day, week and month since June. All of a sudden, the S&P has hundreds of points to rally, and quickly. That, my friend, is the smell of capitulation!

When the bears capitulate, it’s usually the sign that we’re topping. Short term, sure, you can still make some money on the long side. But for the most part, these were not short-term trades I was hearing from the former bears. I think an exaggeratedly bullish view can be as bad as an unbearably bearish view, so I’ll pass on the idea of a several hundred point rally from here and work with something a little less biased. In fact, I think I’ll stick with last summer’s idea that I thought the ultimate target for the NYSE was a hidden Fibonacci magnet of 9314.

http://www.tradingthecharts.com/phpBB/viewtopic.php?t=1521
 
robo said:
Febuary 4th, 2007
Market Update:
By Dominick

Still, an interesting development occurred as a different tune arose from the bearish camp late in the week. Every single bear I spoke with on Thursday and Friday now wanted to buy after having fought the relentless upward move every day, week and month since June. All of a sudden, the S&P has hundreds of points to rally, and quickly. That, my friend, is the smell of capitulation!

When the bears capitulate, it’s usually the sign that we’re topping.

http://www.tradingthecharts.com/phpBB/viewtopic.php?t=1521
Click to expand...

Hummm...
 
1. Colts beat "Da Bears."

2. Tokyo begins the trading day with a downward thrust. Nikkei now down 0.91% as of 10:22 pm. eastern time.

That's the one-two punch that will lead off to lower prices Monday.

Will Monday be the day for "Da Bears" to emerge from Chicago, and go roaming around Wall Street?

Growl.
 
SINGAPORE (AP) -- Oil prices rose Monday in Asian trading as market participants anticipated a jump in fuel demand prompted by a late winter cold snap in the U.S. Northeast, the world's largest heating oil market.

Light, sweet crude for March delivery rose 5 cents to US$59.07 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange midmorning in Singapore.
 
If overseas is any indication of whats in store for US markets Monday prepare for a drop.
 
08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.8. Per usual for a Monday morning, there's some M&A activity in the news. Triad Hospitals (TRI) agreed to a $6.4 bln private equity buyout while State Street (STT) agreed to buy Investors Financial (IFIN) for $4.5 bln in stock. However, with the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq surging 1.6% on average last week, such sizable gains are prompting investors to take some money off the table, setting the stage for stocks to open on a downbeat note.
 
Another one of my precious ones is being bought out - saves me from having to choose which one goes. I do want a higher price for it though, so we need another bidder to pop up. Dow getting ready to go positive.
 
Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
February 05, 2007 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................Socks mixed, market in neutral.

Con-Yak...................................Gas up, lube down.

Jester-Yak................................Lot of folks on the sidelines!

Doodles:
Socks ended mixed for the day.
Stops.......................................Alert (-1%)....Trail (-2%)
.....$SPX.......1446.99 -1.40.........1434.39..........1420.39
.....$EMW........653.32 -0.74..........648.06...........642.06
.....EFA............74.47 -0.24............74.16.............73.46

Dollar........................................85.11 +0.16 for the day.

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at...............58.74 -0.28 for the day.
Oil Markers.................................<60= ok, 60-65= worry, >65= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles................................Yellow.

Tin Box.
Leaders Ratio / Top 10 .................5.9 ......1.0 ......0.4 ......2.4 .....0.4 ....07 leaders
Leaders Play................................G-fund, F-fund, C-fund, S-fund, I-fund.
 
08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.5. Early indications suggest stocks will get back in buying mode after taking a breather yesterday. A batch of better than expected earnings results this morning, and anticipation of a solid report from tech bellwether Cisco Systems (CSCO) tonight, are contributing to the positive disposition. The market's resilience Monday to the bears' attempts to consolidate some of last week's hefty gains is also providing some reassurance that valuations still remain attractive at current levels.
 
I know it's early yet, but we have new all-time highs on the DJIA, DJUA, Wilshire 5000, and a new recovery high on the SPX. The transports will have to catch fire to make their new all-time high. Maybe I spoke too soon.
 
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