Market Talk / Feb. 1st - 7th

[Spaf]

Market Talk
Sunday Edition
February 02, 2009​

General Commentary:

The fundamentals are still as stopped up as any toilet. The major problem seems to be in the financial piping. We get daily reports on new cracks letting funds go harem scarem or horded. There are reasons why Investors are not eager to return to the table; the house needs to clean up all the distrust and waste of it's own dealers. The government can't be expected to patch all the cracks and leaks, when only new piping will restore the system.

The market is range bound and will probably remain so until Investors know that the game is legit.

A look at the chart(s)
The S&P500 [$SPX] Daily
Large Caps

Charts courtesy of www.StockCharts.com​

Pricing remains under the 50dma.

The Bollinger Bands are showing a modest volatility.

The P-SAR still has changed back to bullish.

Volume has been about average.

The S-STO is back in a neutral range, between over-bought and over-sold levels.

The MACD is registering around neutral.

Well, that's it for the weekend!​

Be careful out there!​

 

[amoeba]

ho hum:

Nothing ado until the employment number this Friday; anything less than a big miss on the number could be considered good news - well - OK, -500,000 jobs is bad news; let's call it not as bad as it could be news; but it probably will be worse than that.....I say -530,000.

S&P could be in the 700's. Gold to rise.

 

[tsptalk]

"Investors should buy put options on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index because the benchmark for U.S. stocks may fall back to the 11-year low it reached in November, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said. "

More: Goldman Says Buy Puts Because U.S. Stocks May Resume Retreat

 

[James48843]

Steelers win is a very bullish indicator, says the AP:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/28980239/site/14081545?__source=yahoo|headline|quote|text|&par=yahoo

An extract:

Remarkably, in each of the five previous times that the Steelers have won a NFL title, the markets have posted strong double-digit gains in the championship year. But after posting their worst January performance ever last month (the S&P 500 was down 8.57%), it will undoubtedly be an uphill challenge for the markets to continue that trend this year. Take a look at how the S&P 500 [.SPX 825.44 -0.44 (-0.05%) ] has surged in each of the Steelers’ championship years: Year Change
Super Bowl IX 1975 +31.55% (best year ever for the markets since Super Bowl I)
Super Bowl X 1976 +19.15%
Super Bowl XIII 1979 +12.31%
Super Bowl XIV 1980 +25.77%
Super Bowl XL 2006 +13.62%
Super Bowl XLIII 2009 ????
Given the eight teams that have won three or more NFL championships each, the S&P 500 has performed the best when the Steelers have won the Super Bowl – gaining 20.48% on average. Here’s how the S&P 500 has performed during other NFL franchises’ championship years:
Number of S&P 500’s Avg. Performance
Championships in Championship Years
Pittsburgh Steelers 6 +20.48% (excludes 2009 YTD)
Green Bay Packers 3 +19.59%
San Francisco 49ers 5 +19.18%
Washington Redskins 3 +11.38%
Dallas Cowboys 5 +8.49%
New York Giants 3 -3.38%
New England Patriots 3 -3.79%
Oakland/L.A. Raiders 3 -6.61%

 

[tsptalk]

Down 100+ earlier, Dow is now up 30? It won't last.

 

[tsptalk]

Now up 90+ :embarrest: and at top of the wedge. It should run out of steam right here, unless we get a false break out. Is this setting up the herd for a pounding tomorrow?

 

[tsptalk]

Mid day update. Back to the trendline and 20-day moving average. No higher high (over yesterday) has been made yet...

 

[tsptalk]

Early break ...

 

[tsptalk]

Source www.sentimentrader.com:
"When the S&P has been up 1% or more the day before a Payroll Report, then gapped up on the morning of the report, it finished the day higher than the open 71% of the time (10 out of 14) by an average of +0.2%. But buying the close and holding for a day resulted in only 3 winners (a 21% success rate) and an average of -0.3%. Three days later there was 2 winners and the average dropped to -1.0%."

 

[James48843]

News Flash-

Yahoo is reporting Senate passed the Stimulus bill- at least that's what the teaser headline reads!

 

[James48843]

More data:

Senators reach deal to cut stimulus bill to $780B

WASHINGTON – With job losses soaring nationwide, Senate Democrats reached agreement with key Republicans Friday night on an economic stimulus measure at the heart of President Barack Obama's plan for combatting the worst recession in decades. "The American people want us to work together. They don't want to see us dividing along partisan lines on the most serious crisis confronting our country," said Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, one of two GOP senators who signaled support for the bill.
Officials put the cost of the measure at $780 billion in tax cuts and new spending combined. No details were immediately available, and there appeared to be some confusion even among senators about the price tag as floor debate continued late into the night.
The agreement capped a tense day of backroom negotiations in which Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, joined by White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel, sought to attract the support of enough Republicans to give the measure the needed 60-vote majority.
In addition to Collins, Sen. Arlen Specter, R-Pa., said he would vote for the bill. Sen. Olympia Snowe, R-Maine, remained uncommitted.
Officials said Sen. Edward M. Kennedy's vote might be needed for passage, depending on the number of Republicans who decided to swing behind the measure. The Massachusetts Democrat, battling a brain tumor, has been in Florida in recent days and has not been in the Capitol since suffering a seizure on Inauguration Day more than two weeks ago. The senator's office did not comment.
At $780 billion, the legislation would be smaller than the measure that cleared the House on a party-line vote last week. It also would mean a sharp cut from the version that has been the subject of Senate debate for a week. That measure stood at $937 billion.

 

[James48843]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/congress_stimulus