Market Talk / Dec. 4 - 10

[The_Technician]

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Given that GM and Ford are closing down and shutting thousands out of jobs, it will reverberate down into the suppliers also......now the airline industry has made enroutes to China labor and then ...this..

A shadow of things to come....

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20051207/ap_on_bi_ge/economic_forecast;
_ylt=AnloKiLmBNVhE8HPlZBpKRNI2ocA;
_ylu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlYwMlJVRPUCUl


:UBummer

By the way Greenspud yesterday mentioned that the US needs to reduce Social security payments and Medicare coverage in the future....also the US needs to quell any "Protectionist" attitudes so the rest of the world doesn't shake rattle and roll over dead......our buddy, just who is he working for.....:%

 

[Greg]

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Remember Pearl Harbor: Dec. 7, 1941: On 64th anniversary

 

[mlk_man]

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Thanks for reminding us Greg! Were you ever a soldat, I mean soldier?

 

[The_Technician]

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We should be getting some low side pressure today ...so I expect a bump up would be in store.....

:dude:

 

[robo]

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Greg wrote:

Remember Pearl Harbor: Dec. 7, 1941: On 64th anniversary

A Tech's reply....

Pearl Harbor Day, Dec 7, 1941..... Is the market under attack and ready to sink as the Battleship Arizona did on that fateful day? The daily MACDs are flashing SELL signals and the market indices appear to be making a slow roll-over forming a short term interim top. Yesterday's high may have been the signal for technicians to begin taking some profit.

Keep your guard up, I'm Bullish long term cautious short term...The smart money is selling tickets at the gate to the 1300 herd.... Are you buying???? Could be the right play!!!!! We could see some lower prices soon, but any pullbacks will be met with buying....

Some comments about the Smart Money:

I have plotted a long term chart of the Smart Money Indicator (bright blue line) below. It covers the last eight years to illustrate the new low it reached yesterday when the opening advance of 35 points and closing loss of 58 points produced a loss of 93 points for the day. The indicator has now fallen almost 3600 points since the high reached at the market bottom in March 2003. From the high reached in January 1999 until the indicator hit bottom in December 2000, it lost 5900 points.

We only have two cycles of the indicator to study so we must be careful in projecting what has happened during this period to the present. I have seen anecdotal reports which maintain that the indicator is performing the same as it did during the previous 30 years, but I have not been able to study the data firsthand. That said, if the cycle does repeat, the market will top out just before the indicator bottoms out, so one cannot make a timing decision based on it. It certainly looks like we are due for a market retreat as the indicator falls to new depths, but two cycles are not enough to pinpoint it.

 

[The_Technician]

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could be MM's dip is showing though.....

:dude:

 

[Spaf]

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Well! I guess this kind of closes out bear chasing season!

 

[The_Technician]

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Should have figgered it with all the auto, airline and home construction news of late....they are about the only industry we have left here in the US.....and they are going down the tubes....lets see food, energy, transportation, shelter, and what else is there.....clothing.....

I hope everyone will take notice how much in income opportunitiesthey have lost in the past 10 years and then call their congressman.....unless they like living poorly while the rest of the world lives better......

:?

 

[Spaf]

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The Kingdom of TSP

Daily Edition

Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves & Yak Date: Dec. 07, Closing


Market News.

Kingdom Talk:. Bear Market back. 1st stage almost complete, smart money sold, and the reaction rally made a lower high. 2nd stage pending break below previous low of 1249.

Oil slices thru the $60 marker again, however, supplies hold.

Elsewhere:......The Jestor spoke: The market does what the market will, welcome to Bearsville.


Doodles and Tea Leaves - Daily.

Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
Closed at..................1257.37, dn -6.33
CMF (money flow) at.....+0.138, up
RSI (strength) at...........59.4,dn
MACD (trend).....bearish
S-STO (signal)....bearish
P-SAR (signal)....bullish
ROC (change).....bullish

Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at..............59.21 dn -0.73

Tea Leaves:....................Red.


Yak.

Remarks:.......Holding 100/0
S&P Stops:.....Alert: 1256. Trail: 1244.

Oil Markers:...<64= ok, 64-69= worry, >69= panic.

 

[Skip]

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Well I quess I got out a day late and got back in a day early... just my luck...

Notice that the dow gained 35point from the low "est" toward the close.... We will be higher by years end.... jmho

All is not lost....
Skip

Stocks End Lower In Quiet Day Of Trade
BY KEN SHREVE Posted 12/7/2005
The major stock indexes moved off their lows Wednesday but still finished in negative territory. Nasdaq volume ended slightly lower than Tuesday's level.
At the market close, the Dow slipped 45 points, or 0.4%, to 10,811, the S&P 500 lost 6 points, 0.5%, to 1257 and the Nasdaq gave up nearly 9 points, or 0.4%, to 2252. The S&P SmallCap 600 surrendered 0.8%. Nasdaq volume fell 5% to just under 1.8 billion shares. NYSE volume eased 1% to around 1.6 billion shares.
In earnings news, DSW (DSW) eased 15 cents to 25.94 in slightly heavier volume. Late Tuesday, the shoe retailer reported third-quarter profit of 25 cents a share, a 19% increase from a year ago. Sales rose 19% to $302.2 million. Last week, the company reported a 12.8% increase in November same-store sales. DSW's Fundamental Rating of 97 from IBD Stock Checkup ranks it No. 4 out of 61 stocks in the Retail-Clothing/Shoe industry group. It came public in late June at $19.
Meanwhile, IBD 100 firm Hurco Companies (HURC) soared 4.50 to 27.33 in huge trade volume after the industrial technology firm blew away fourth-quarter profit estimates. It made 77 cents a share, a 114% increase from a year ago and 22 cents over views. Revenue climbed 20% to $34.7 million. Its Overall Rating of 92 from IBD Stock Checkup ranks it No. 2 behind Cascade Corp. (CAE) in the Machinery-Metal Handling/Automation group. Cascade fell 1.37 to 49.66 ahead of its third-quarter report tomorrow.
Heavy-volume gainers in Stocks On The Move included IBD 100 firm Lufkin Industries (LUFK) and Fidelity Bankshares (FFFL). Both firms are being added to the S&P SmallCap 600 index. Lufkin Industries passed its buy point of $50.40 and surged 3.42 to 51.90. Fidelity Bankshares rose 91 cents to 32.67.
Meanwhile, USA Truck (USAK) closed in on all-time high and added 1.21 to 29.16 in rapid trade. It's featured in today's The New America. The trucking firm is one of many leaders in the Transportation-Truck industry group. Its Fundamental Rating of 92 is partly fueled by a three-year EPS growth rate of 89%.
ViroPharma (VPHM) picked up 1.35 to 18.80 in above-average volume. The drug developer priced a public offering of 9 million shares at $16.75 each.
Recent new issue Adams Respiratory Therapeutics (ARXT) gained 1.61 to 46.40 in nearly double its normal volume. The specialty pharmaceutical firm has been a strong performer since its July IPO at $17. It sports a three-year EPS growth rate of 150% and a three-year sales growth rate of 176%.
Angiodynamics (ANGO), meanwhile, continued work on a base-on-base pattern and rose 75 cents to 23.81 in slightly heavier trade.
Panera Bread (PNRA) tried to clear a high handle and added 1.49 to 69.26 in barely above-average turnover. Its potential buy point is 70.32. Before the open, the cafe/bakery chain reported a 7.7% rise in November same-store sales and lifted its full-year profit forecast.
On the downside, IBD 100 firm Comtech Telecom (CMTL) notched its third straight heavy-volume decline. Shares fell 1.47 to 33.25.Yesterday, the telecom-equipment maker reported a 68% jump in fiscal first-quarter profit and 90% surge in sales, but it guided second-quarter results below expectations.
ITT Industries (ITT) gapped down 8.34 to 98.65 in brisk volume. Prudential downgraded the industrial conglomerate from Overweight to Neutral.
At the New York Mercantile Exchange, January crude oil settled at $59.21 a barrel, up 73 cents. It traded as high as $60.55 a barrel before the Energy Department's release of weekly supply data. Crude supplies rose unexpectedly last week by 2.7 million barrels. Forecasts were for a decline of 1.9 million barrels.
Distillate and gasoline stocks also increased by 2.7 million barrels, higher than forecasts.

 

[robo]

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Nice market action at the close..... The Big Boys will take another shot at the 1270's soon and squeeze some more shorts out..... This is not the type ofmarket to be shorting in my opinion...... The rally will continue after this consolidation ends.....

 

[mlk_man]

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The Technician wrote:

could be MM's dip is showing though.....

:dude:

Now you tell me!! Howembarassing, went all day with my dip showing............:shock:

 

[mlk_man]

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Spaf wrote:

Well! I guess this kind of closes out bear chasing season!

Not so fast Spaf, I'm sure you've heard of "bear and grin it"........

 

[Spaf]

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Mlk,

Someone else can "bear and grin it"!

Don't you need a new handle or a aka "Master Tracker"?

Oh! I got a presant for ya. But, ya got to keep him in a safe box, ya can't ever let him out. [kind of like "Nim" on Surface]. What ya say?

 

[Birchtree]

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Robo,

You cut the trail on point, I'll follow. We are in a nice bull market - a slice Tuesday when the market Dow was up 83 points intraday is a sample of what is coming. There were many new all time highs being set in several important indices (indexs) and once this small selling is complete off we go to over 11,940 and then more money will start to enter - I suggest hang on for dear life. This could be really fun.

Dennis-perma bull #2

 

[Spaf]

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Dennis,
We're like a couple of racoons crawling out on different limbs! :l Spaf

BTW what was our grade in rocket science 101?

 

[robo]

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Birchtree wrote:

I suggest hang on for dear life. This could be really fun.

I almost went long again today , but decided to wait one more day.... Sometimes that's not a good idea! Good trading.....

 

[Birchtree]

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I traded my Flash Gordon rocket in for a second hand, but solidly built Ark. I simply made a few alterations and now it will float - I think. When the market decides to lift all boats mine should participate. Nikkei got the hammer overnight - but that is dandy here - my wife has her dollar cost money due Friday so pricing should be just about right to buy more shares. Every day all the way.

 

[The_Technician]

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I think we're in for a rough ride till eoy.....seems to happen this time of year to get fair short term profits

:dude:

 

[mlk_man]

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Spaf wrote:

Mlk,

Oh! I got a presant for ya. But, ya got to keep him in a safe box, ya can't ever let him out. [kind of like "Nim" on Surface]. What ya say?

Hmmmmm, is it a box of air? :%

Or did you blow me a kiss and wrap in a box...........