Market Talk / Dec. 4 - 10

[Spaf]

The Kingdom of TSP

Sunday-Weekly

Early Edition

Kingdom News, Doodles, Tea Leaves, & Yak Date: Dec. 4, 2005


Kingdom News.

Kingdom Talk:. Market stuck at station, good coal, but missed water tower to cool off over bought conditions.

It must be a daisy range: a bull, a bear, a bull .......

Elsewhere:...... The Jestor spoke: A week around the hangman ran.


Doodles, and Tea Leaves - Weekly, and ending.

Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
Closed at................... 1265.08, dn -3.17 for the week.
CMF (money flow) at...... +0.203, dn -0.163 for the week.
RSI (strength) at............ 66.1, dn -8.56 for the week; [O.B.=70, O.S.=30].
MACD (trend)....... -------
S-STO (signal)..... bullish
P-SAR (signal)..... bearish
ROC (change)...... bullish

Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at............ 59.32, up +0.61 for the week.

Attachment:. S&P (3mo) chart ending 12/02. Added: 20dMA, P-SAR, RSI, MACD, STO, and ROC.

Tea leaves:....................Yellow


Yak.

Remarks:..................... Holding 100/0 (100-0 / 0-0-0).
Stops (C:S&P):............. Alert: 1256, Trailing: 1244.

Lube Markers:.............. <64 = ok, 64-69 = worry, >69 = critical.

Weekly TSP Returns:...1 Wk : G=+.01, F=-.05, C=-.03, S=+.09, I=+.24
2 Wks: G=+.02, F=+.00, C=+.19, S=+.39, I=+.27

 

[Birchtree]

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There is the risk that a negative divergence could occur if the DJ Industrials were to reach a new high (10,997) but the DJ Utilities, which are nearly 8% below their October peak, fail to hit a new high (440).

One historical point perhaps worth noting is that large gains in the market in November have, on average, been followed by more subdued performances during December. In fact, since 1950, there have been 10 Novembers in which the S&P 500 has registered a gain of 5% or more. The average net change during the Decembers that followed was only plus 0.8%, and four of those 10 Decembers actually produced net losses. With the S&P 500 recently up about 5.1% for November, there is a risk that December could be a much more difficult month for the market than November was. I'll take my chances - riding this bull should not be easy anyway - staying 100% C fund all the way.

The Fed will raise policy rates by 25 basis points at the December 13 FOMC meeting. The only real question is how the press statement will change. If the word "measured" shows up again, it would mean that "we are likely to go again January 31". If the statement retains the phrasew "policy accommodation", it would mean that "we are nowhere near where we want to be." The Fed has never stopped tightening while policy was "accommodative", let alone "neutral" An overshoot this cycle would take the funds rate to at least 5%. That, in turn, would put the rally that financial stocks have been enjoying since mid-October at risk. I bet the wording will change and they will pause after 12/13.

 

[Show-me]

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Bloomberg is reporting that the major retailer have been aggressively promoting deep discounts. They have been doing this since “black Friday”. Apparently retail sales are not as good as the thought or wanted. Gift cards are expected to make up 20% of sales and they are not shown on the “books” until they are redeemed. Uhmp couldn't tell sales are down by what we spent.

Over night lows have reached the single digits here. Wonder how that will start to effect energy.

Silver is finally following Gold up the ladder!

I'm still 100% I fund. Missed the 1.5% like adoof!

 

[The_Technician]

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Disturbing fact....if you invested in and out on a daily basis in the C or S funds you would have returned 15+ and 17+ percent respectively for the last year....starting in on Dec 6....

(nearest I can tell if all the data is correct on a daily basis....) can anybody else confirm this???:%

Of course we had a positive year this year and these resultswould not be achieved on a down year....

:dude:

 

[grandma]

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The Technician wrote:

Disturbing fact....if you invested in and out on a daily basis in the C or S funds

Boy - wouldn't that drive our faithful trackers crzy?? ...a daily ift ! Is there room on the spreadsheets to keep adding lines to 260?? Heaven Forbid !!!

I can see them now:

 

[mlk_man]

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The Technician wrote:

Disturbing fact....if you invested in and out on a daily basis in the C or S funds you would have returned 15+ and 17+ percent respectively for the last year....starting in on Dec 6....

(nearest I can tell if all the data is correct on a daily basis....) can anybody else confirm this???:%

Of course we had a positive year this year and these resultswould not be achieved on a down year....

:dude:

Don't you read my account talk? :shock:

Look at Nov. 2nd.

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum1/278-24.html

 

[The_Technician]

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Musta missed it MM....interesting fact though....I wasn't even considering the returns from the G either........

:^

 

[The_Technician]

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Imagine what you could do with a little intuitive thought.........

:dude:

 

[Soldat]

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And what would have happened if you were a day off the whole time? -15 -17?

 

[The_Technician]

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Interesting....7.7 and 10.64 or so.....for C and S fund....never would have figgggerd that.....wonder what so daily thats key here....

 

[Soldat]

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hah, I clicked on technician and it gave him 3 "mana." I think Tom has been playing Magic cards too much. HAHAHAHA

 

[Spaf]

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The Kingdom of TSP

Daily Edition

Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves & Yak Date: Dec. 05, Closing


Market News.

Kingdom Talk:. Stoxs are off the S&P high of 1270 for several days, including a lower high. Trend indicating a short position.

Oil gave a brief advance above $60 with colder weather.

Elsewhere:.......Todays candle was a hammer - hanging man.


Doodles and Tea Leaves - Daily.

Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
Closed at..................1262.09, dn -2.99
CMF (money flow) at.....+0.192, dn
RSI (strength) at...........63.8, dn
MACD (trend).....-------
S-STO (signal)...bullish
P-SAR (signal)...bearish
ROC (change)....bullish

Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at..............59.91 up +0.59

Tea Leaves:......................Red.


Yak.

Remarks:.......Holding 100/0
S&P Stops:.....Alert: 1256. Trail: 1244.

Oil Markers:...<64= ok, 64-69= worry, >69= panic.

 

[Skip]

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Looks like the market not going the bears way anytime soon.. Unless 1260 is broken.
Skip

[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]S&P drops at Open, holds above key lower trend line and support.[/font] [font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]
The commentary on this page is based on the S&P 100 (OEX) Index. Equivalent numbers for the S&P 500 (SPX) are in ( ) within the commentary. - SW Team [/font] [font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]From Yesterday's commentary, "...Keep an eye on the clear upper trend line at 581 (1,267) for signs of continued strength Monday. Otherwise, a break below 578 (1,260) will indicate weakness..." [/font]
[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]The S&P opened the session with a steady sell-off this morning, but managed to keep the decline light as it struggled with the major lower trend line from the 60 Minute Chart. The index remains very bullish within the current uptrend and continues to hold above two key near-term support levels, which have fended off prolonged declines. [/font]
[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]Looking at the 60 Minute Chart shows the first level of support happens to be the major lower trend line at 577 (1,258). If the index continues to hold above this line, we should look for the S&P to rally once again toward new highs some time soon. [/font]
[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]However, should this line be crossed with force at 577 (1,258), we could see the next level of support tested at 574 (1,248). This level represents the last time the S&P halted an extended decline, which in turn resulted in a huge, one-day advance. However, should this level be broken to the downside, look for an even steeper sell-off to occur. [/font]
[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]We will keep a close eye on the near-term upper trend line at 580 (1,265). This line has formed across the highs of the relatively minor 7-day pull-back. An upside break through this line could spark another mega-rally toward new highs. [/font]
[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]Short Term S&P [/font]
[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]Short term, the S&P ended the day above intraday support at 577 (1,258), seen in the 5 Minute Chart. Watch for strength above this zone tomorrow morning, unless a break occurs. [/font]
[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]Medium Term S&P [/font]
[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]In the medium term, we are still out of the market and will look for Longs above 581 (1,268), and Shorts below 576 (1,255); using 2 (3) point stops. [/font]
[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]Summary [/font]
[font="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"]The S&P ended the day with a minor pull-back, but continues to honor two key supporting patterns. Watch 580 (1,265) for early signs of strength tomorrow. Otherwise, a break below 576 (1,255) could extend the current decline[/font]

 

[Birchtree]

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Once we get Dow 10,940.55 and an in the clear, if the bull market is continuing, as such a move would confirm, then this market completed its' third year on Oct.9 and the odds are 87% that it will continue to its fourth anniversary. Over the past 100 plus years, there have only been eight times that bull markets lasted three years, and then seven of them went on to last four years or longer with an average gain of 20% in that fourth year. Simply marvelous. Don't talk it - bring it.

 

[vectorman]

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Interesting observation: In article from London newspaper...

LONDON, Dec 6 (Reuters) - The yen plunged to a record low against the euro on Tuesday, battered by the widening interest rate differentials between Japan and other countries, while inflation concerns pushed gold to a near-25-year high.

http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh71792_2005-12-06_13-48-18_l06730213_newsml

The last time gold peaked like this was Apr 1981. May be no connection but you can see what the S&P did later that year.

 

[The_Technician]

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I'm gettingearly on posistive impulses this morning.....markets should be going up ......guess they will go ahead and take off some...

:^

 

[mlk_man]

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Early? They've been going up all morning! :l

 

[Spaf]

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The Kingdom of TSP

Daily Edition

Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves & Yak Date: Dec. 06, Closing


Market News.

Kingdom Talk:. Stox lose momentum as daily advance fades in the closing hour.

Oil slices thru the $60 marker.

Elsewhere:.......The Jestor spoke: As a dog chases a bone the candle was a gravestone.


Doodles and Tea Leaves - Daily.

Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
Closed at..................1263.70, up +1.61
CMF (money flow) at.....+0.122, dn
RSI (strength) at...........64.5, up
MACD (trend).....-------
S-STO (signal)....-------
P-SAR (signal)....bullish
ROC (change).....bullish

Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at................59.94 up +0.03

Tea Leaves:......................Yellow.


Yak.

Remarks:.......Holding 100/0
S&P Stops:.....Alert: 1256. Trail: 1244.

Oil Markers:...<64= ok, 64-69= worry, >69= panic.

 

[learning]

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I saw what the stock market was doing and was kicking myself for going all G. I was going to change that tommorow. Now, I see the market clossed about neutral. Smart money sold. So I will just try and not get to upset if I see the market go up. I want to end this year on a Hign note. Perhaps, that is the problem. So many people want the same that the market brought a lot of people into it. The Smart money can make quick trades and is killing the person trying to time the market. I shall wait and see what happens. Pray for a big fall to get in on and ride back up.:?

 

[The_Technician]

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I'm expecting a jump over the next week or so Learning...so I hope it comes and you don't miss it....

Out of all the fund gains today...F fund gained the most....thought that I fund had a good day too....

:^