Market Talk / Dec. 2 - 8

[Spaf]

Market Talk
Monday Edition
December 03, 2007​

General Commentary:

The S&P is trading above the 13d MA, however it is still in a downward trend. The Bollinger Bands are showing somewhat of a volatile market condition. Somewhat a reflection of detriorations in the credit market and housing. The 50d MA will act as resistance as the market slowly loses traction with the slow stochastics closing near 78.10 (close to overbought).

The Market is going through a somewhat instability crisis (volatility) even though the seasonality should be positive??


Economics / Fundamentals:

Economic indicators are turning weak and market activity is very choppy.

Economic News - CNNMoney

NYMEX crude - wtrg


Technical Analysis:

The S&P was up 40.44 points for the week.

We don't have any stops set because of the lows. The up trend is based on a V-ish bounce, something that says caution!

A look at the chart(s)
[$SPX]
Large Caps

Charts courtesy of www.StockCharts.com​

TSP / TSPTalk / and me

My allocations can be found in my signature and the Tally / Tracker. The real theme is you own risk tolerance and skills. We need to actively manage our accounts. Not that we want to be glued to the Lilly Pad (G-Fund) but neither do we want to be swimming in a pool of sharks!


TSP Share Prices:
Week Ending........G=12.23..F=11.90..C=16.67..S=19.87..I=25.33
End of 2006.........G=11.71..F=11.14..C=15.69..S=18.76..I=22.22


Have a good week! And, be careful out there!

 

[hessian]

Hello Spaf,
This may be my 1st post with you.
There's been a surprising lack of folks posting/talking today - almost strange silence.

Personally, concerns you've expressed in your analysis may be part of the reason, and by the way, I have many same concerns. 12% posted an article, expressing similar concerns (rare for 12%!). I also finally caught on to what "Slow Sto" indicates from your discussion, so, MUCH thanks for that!!

I'm currently in all G. Hate to sit on sidelines, but I suppose I gotta learn patience - seems little choice now. Think it may be reasonable to jump into some stocks if S&P500 retraces to 1430?

I agree retest is likely - even for possible further drops.
Any advice where to start buying in, would be appreciated, should scenario described occur!!
BIG Thanks!
VR

 

[ContrarianJeff]

I think we may see some relatively mild weakness for the next day or two, but it looks like we're going up big time over the next few weeks. Small-money sentiment is really bearish, financial magazines are bearish, while insiders' sentiment is very bullish. That is what we usually see before a big rise in the indexes.

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

Hello Spaf,
This may be my 1st post with you.
There's been a surprising lack of folks posting/talking today - almost strange silence.

Personally, concerns you've expressed in your analysis may be part of the reason, and by the way, I have many same concerns. 12% posted an article, expressing similar concerns (rare for 12%!). I also finally caught on to what "Slow Sto" indicates from your discussion, so, MUCH thanks for that!!

I'm currently in all G. Hate to sit on sidelines, but I suppose I gotta learn patience - seems little choice now. Think it may be reasonable to jump into some stocks if S&P500 retraces to 1430?

I agree retest is likely - even for possible further drops.
Any advice where to start buying in, would be appreciated, should scenario described occur!!
BIG Thanks!
VR

nice n cozy on the sidelines today, hessian...good call

 

[Spaf]

Concerns​

Generally, in trading you want to buy low and sell high! With investing you want to play risk vs reward i.e., the L-Funds.
The Slow Stochastics gives a indication of oversold/overbought conditions.
However!
This needs to be evaluated with market fundamentals. RE: Reverend Shark.
If R.S. is saying capital preservation! I'm retired. and not going 100%.
So it's a matter of managing your own account and what you feel comfortable with.
But, it's also a matter of understanding two market concepts; fundamentals and technical analysis.
Remember, you are swimming with the sharks!.......:blink:

Be careful out there!
Spaf

Hello Spaf,
This may be my 1st post with you.
There's been a surprising lack of folks posting/talking today - almost strange silence.

Personally, concerns you've expressed in your analysis may be part of the reason, and by the way, I have many same concerns. 12% posted an article, expressing similar concerns (rare for 12%!). I also finally caught on to what "Slow Sto" indicates from your discussion, so, MUCH thanks for that!!

I'm currently in all G. Hate to sit on sidelines, but I suppose I gotta learn patience - seems little choice now. Think it may be reasonable to jump into some stocks if S&P500 retraces to 1430?

I agree retest is likely - even for possible further drops.
Any advice where to start buying in, would be appreciated, should scenario described occur!!
BIG Thanks!
VR

 

[hessian]

Concerns
Generally, in trading you want to buy low and sell high! With investing you want to play risk vs reward i.e., the L-Funds.
The Slow Stochastics gives a indication of oversold/overbought conditions.
However!
This needs to be evaluated with market fundamentals. RE: Reverend Shark. If R.S. is saying capital preservation! I'm retired. and not going 100%. So it's a matter of managing your own account and what you feel comfortable with.
But, it's also a matter of understanding two market concepts; fundamentals and technical analysis.
Remember, you are swimming with the sharks!.......:blink:
Be careful out there!
Spaf

Hello again Spaf, I'm enjoying your advice. I recall that someone said you had a good knowledge of investing and trading, but forget who had said that - might have been Nnuut or maybe Griffin, but anyway, I respect what you're saying.
I have about 5 yrs until I can retire, had some successes, some burns, both mostly minor, and I consider it all part of learning. But I'm certainly now wanting some success!! I'll play what will make me money - meaning, I'm just as comfortable as investor, as trader - depending on situation at hand.

Right now, I'm wanting to get set for this next FOMC annoucement on Tuesday. I'm looking at this as a short-term position trade - so I'm going to plan to sell the news either Tues./Wed. - unless things really take off, but its just so volatile & risky right now to hold much longer after this! Anyway, today I moved a moderate 8% into each C, S, I (24% total). - Next I'm looking for a 2nd opportunity to DCA another 8% if we go lower - expecting this either tommorow or Thurs (hoping to catch that 1430 gap before the FOMC).

Either way, I missed 1st big FOMC rise, so this time I at least have something in play. Hoping that this one is as big, but I'm not going "all in" (like many will be) - and I will be ready to leap out if needed. I do think there's more shoes to drop, so I won't be staying long - certainly not into Jan.'08! Expect that's when the BIG shoes will drop, if they do drop.
VR, Sir Spaf!