Market Talk / Dec. 18 - 24

[Spaf]

The Kingdom of TSP

Sunday-Weekly

Early Edition

Kingdom News, Doodles, Tea Leaves, & Yak Date: Dec. 18, 2005


Kingdom News.

Kingdom Talk:. Market train still at station! Vestors getting on? or off?

Bear chasing season suppose to reopen! Where's Santa?

Elsewhere:...... Temperature up - Lube down.


Doodles, and Tea Leaves - Weekly, and ending.

Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
Closed at................... 1267.32, up +7.95 for the week.
CMF (money flow) at....... -0.023, dn -0.097 for the week.
RSI (strength) at............ 62.0, up +1.80 for the week; [O.B.=70, O.S.=30].
MACD (trend)....... bearish
S-STO (signal)...... _______
P-SAR (signal)...... bullish
ROC (change)....... bullish

Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at.............. 59.05, dn -0.34 for the week.

Attachment:. S&P (3mo) chart ending 12/16 Added: 20dMA, P-SAR, RSI, MACD, STO, and ROC.

Tea leaves:......................Yellow


Yak.

Remarks:..................... Holding 100/0 (100-0 / 0-0-0).
Stops (C:S&P):............. Alert: 1261, Trailing: 1249.

Lube Markers:.............. <60 = ok, 60-64 = worry, >64 = critical.

Weekly TSP Returns:...1 Wk : G=+.01, F=+.06, C=+.09, S=-.06, I=+.33
2 Wks: G=+.02, F=+.07, C=+.03, S=-.09, I=+.50

 

[Dave M]

imported post

Is today the day? Futures look good. D

 

[Wheels]

imported post

Dave M wrote:

Is today the day? Futures look good. D

Apparently not. Especially for the S fund. Getting throttled again.

Dave

<><

 

[JOVARN]

imported post

And with 20 min left It doesn't look like a bail out is coming from the I fund .

 

[Soldat]

imported post

The last hour breaks, things will get better, not worse.

 

[The_Technician]

imported post

Reviewing current market data, there is a possibility that the market may have had its last song for the year.....I believe though we will not really know this until at least Tuesday or Wednesday.....if she won't go up by then, then I believe the curtain has closed for the final performanceof the year.....:?

:dude:

 

[Soldat]

imported post

Tech, do you honestly think the market is out of steam? I think we will hit new highs around 28-30 Dec. We are collecting the momentum we need to finish the year with a bang.
-----------------------------------------------------------
On another note, what do you think about the trend of AGG? It appears to me that this is the place to be as of 06'. Looks like the overall trend is bullish and I think we are sitting in what appears to be a low.

 

[Dave M]

imported post

Nope, fizzled. D

 

[The_Technician]

imported post

Well to tell you the truth I have speculated by some new dataanalysis that the markets have reached their approximate pinnacle ....there could be room for 3-4% advancement but its a shot in the dark to me....even though I believe we're good till EOY, we may not get much out of the last two weeks....its a chance but its getting slimmer by the day.....I was sort of expecting that today would be a down day, but to say that now is after the fact.....but then again, I was sort of expecting it last week and I think I mentioned it.....

I had been in the S fund till last week and then I got out.....I went to theI fund for the very reasons most did......higher interest rates, I figured the I fund would be rather "protected" from speculation on this point....it was a good point one of you made about the small caps would suffer the most by the interest rate increase....beside that the I fund should benefit anything from a Dollar collapse...so, I figured it to be a safe place to stash till EOY.....little did I know how much the C and S fund would drop today.....it kind of surprised me....but there is still room in my book for them to make a short term comeback, its happened before ......

F fund is low.....I've been in and out of it some of late.....but then again I would have thought by now it would have made more progress....I still think it will outperform the G fund over time for the near term,I move to the G fund though when its dueif everything else is zippo, especially soafter the EOY.....I can't miss that auto penny.....with my"mysterical guess" as "Carnac the Magnificient" (thanks NNuut) , we don't miss it much, its almost a sure bet.....

Needless to say, I haven't posted my moves of late....I haven't been pleased with the analysis I had been getting up until of late,I made some new data analysis since mid Nov and I like what I see...up over 4% since mid Nov.....but then again, I have nothing to prove it other than paperwork from TSP...dang thing about it is I could have seen the Nov and June/July market push coming on if I had this analysis earlier.......

I should hope to be posting my moves sometime sooner or later.....but I have been posting lately what I have seen as my data analysis makes it apparent......and I do believe I said last week that Tuesday of this week would probably be a good day to be in the market for that last rush before EOY....tomorrow we will see.....sure has set up for it today.......

Keepyour eyes wide open, we're treading the fine edge of a drop off.....I honestly believe in Jan, things will turn for the worse.....as they stand at this time.......I'm just wondering how the I fund will really react to the US markets direction.....

:^

 

[learning]

imported post

Gas prices for 2006. I believe this is a little overstated. However, I also believe there is some truth to this. May not be good for the market.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/10533856/

 

[Spaf]

imported post

The Kingdom of TSP

Daily Edition

Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves & Yak Date: Dec. 19, Closing


Market News.

Kingdom Talk:..Stox end lower. NASD had a hangover.

Whoops, train going the wrong way?

Elsewhere:.......Santa lost gate key to bear chasing pasture!


Doodles and Tea Leaves - Daily.

Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
Closed at..................1259.92, dn -7.40
CMF (money flow) at.....-0.119, dn
RSI (strength) at...........55.4, dn
MACD (trend).....bearish
S-STO (signal)....bearish
P-SAR (signal)....bullish
ROC (change).....bearish

Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at..............58.05 dn -1.00

Tea Leaves:.....................Red.


Yak.

Remarks:.......Holding 100/0
S&P Stops:.....Alert: 1261 [broken]. Trail: 1249.

Oil Markers:...<64= ok, 64-69= worry, >69= panic.

 

[robo]

imported post

Analogyabout the current market from a Tech:

Ever wake up on a beautiful sunny day without a cloud in the sky, only to find a few large clouds accumulating just a few hours later? Then as the day wears on the sun disappears, the temperature drops and the sky turns totally gray. It still hasn't rained, but it sure looks like it's about to.

That's where we are today in the stock market. The long-term indicators such as the Trend Indicator, the Smart Money Indicator, the Program Trading Indicator and the NYSE public short sales are the clouds. Some may develop into rain clouds while others merely blow by. The Summary Index sell signal has turned the sky to gray but the short-term indicators have not yet turned on the raindrops. And, just like a prospective storm, ominous signs can sometimes clear without much more than a sprinkle -- but one is wise to carry an umbrella just in case.

Rain Storm or just gray skies???

Stay cautious, we could see more selling before the next rally.... Could be worth a short term play, but I'm still not buying...If the selling continues I'll add some longs. All the Tech's I follow have sells in place, 3 are shorting 2in cash.. The Bulls are running out of time they need to squeeze the shorts soon... The exits will get crowed next week... Do you think you are the only one planning on selling next week?? Some are beating you out the door and betting/shorting you will sell next week and are selling NOW!!!! They have made their money and are locking in profits.As the market goes down they will make more money shorting....I'm hoping for 1300 also, but we might have to wait till next year.... The 1280's have been tough to break!!! Keep yourstops short!!! Currently 75% cash 25% equities.. I'm always conservative...

Good Trading!!!!

 

[oldschool]

imported post

Down day on low volume. Snooze.

Show me a down day on high volume and maybe I'll take some C off the table...

The "S" though - a bit different story. Many of the big institutions that act as a steadying force on many of the stocks that make up the "C" fund probably don't/can't take positions in the majority of the stocks in the S fund. Ok, ok, that's why S gives a premium on the upside.....to lure us in despite having a somewhat different universe of investors in the underlying stocks....

S will need to slip again before I'm lured back...



oldschool

 

[Birchtree]

imported post

Staying the course - waiting on S&P 500 of 1527.46. How long must I wait?

 

[robo]

imported post

Birchtree wrote:

How long must I wait?

The C Fund shall rise again!!!! Maybe next year My Friend..... The numbers look good for the economyin 2006!!!! Might try some 100% longs in 06 given buying op's.... Bob called it again this year under 1180 add new money....I'll be watching for next year's buying op's....

 

[robo]

imported post

Oldschool wrote:

Down day on low volume. Snooze.

Low volume, Yes!!! But more than one day... I'd say a couple of days...

Nov 22 C Fund 13.66 Dec 19 Today 13.66

Nov 22 S Fund 16.34 Dec 19 Today 16.21

Nov 22 I Fund 16.92 Dec 19 Today 17.59

Maybe the santa rally starts tomorrow, I hope so, but we are running out of time.. The exits could get crowed soon and stocks will go on sale....

 

[oldschool]

imported post

call me simple but...

it may be that the closer we get to the end of the month and year, the more incentive the big mangers/institutions have to move towards C fund type investments to lock in whatever differential they've managed to establish over the trading year...

their performance fee income is calculated at year/month end, generally?

just one perspective....

 

[robo]

imported post

Oldschool wrote:

their performance fee income is calculated at year/month end, generally?

I agree, but the Boys might try one more push down to shake out the weak bulls before the final rally... 1250 has good support and 1280's will not be easy to clear...

 

[Show-me]

imported post

Well are we going to hang in there? I fund is going take a little smack down with the USD gaining all most 1%. The market giveth and the market taketh away. Next week should be the week to buy bargains. Investors typically dump their losers the last two weeks of the year.

 

[Soldat]

imported post

The I fund should suffer a 3-4 cent loss/share if no adjustments are made by the TS-Political police.