Market Talk / August 3 - 9

[Spaf]

Market Talk
Sunday Edition
August 3, 2008​

General Commentary:

Last week we went no-where fast! The S&P (in volatility) gained a mere 2.61 points. There doesn't seem to be any stocks to lead us out of a trading range which appears to be forming.

Energy-oil has been holding the $120 range, closing Friday at $125 a barrel.

A look at the chart(s)
The S&P500 [$SPX] Daily
Large Caps

Charts courtesy of www.StockCharts.com​

A trading range appears to be forming: Resistance at about 1291. Support at about 1234.

The P-SAR is at a bullish point that could turn bearish.

The S-Sto is just barely under oversold indications.

The MACD appears to be losing momentum.

Well, have a good day!​

And, be careful out there!​

 

[Miss_Piggy]

Hey Spaf, looks like you're back on the job

 

[nnuut]

Hey Spaf, looks like you're back on the job

Yes he is, and with a Vengeance!! Nice to hear from you MP!!!

 

[JTH]

Great post Spaf

As of now I don't have much confidence we will close above 1290. I'd like to see us break back down to the downside and test July's lows. Anyone besides me think this will happen this week?

 

[Miss_Piggy]

Yes he is, and with a Vengeance!! Nice to hear from you MP!!!

With a vengeance, huh? Well than here Spaf, a pic just for your use:

nnuut, signature and all?? Well, thank you!

PS Spaf, I'll stop hogging your thread now.

 

[Spaf]

Thanks Miss Piggy!
I copied it!
Will reserve it for the next spammer or unauthorized salesman....

 

[Spaf]

Aug. 7, 08...09:30...Oh Wow!

Oil was up about $1.00 but under $120.00. Major indicies were all down.

We seem to be having problems with the resistance level at about 1291 (on the S&P)...:suspicious:

 

[luv2read]

Equity strategists with JPMorgan have begun the tricky task of preparing for a recovery in Asia-Pacific markets sometime in the second half. They have advised clients to bet on markets where inflation is trending lower, such as China, Taiwan and Singapore, by switching to the financial and consumer discretionary sectors from the energy and materials sectors.

Oil's $25 decline in the last month has enhanced this view, they said.

"Although the rotation argument does not require lower commodity prices, declining prices add to the story through both lower inflation expectations encouraging the switch into domestic stocks and obviously lower commodity prices forcing investors out of commodity stocks," said Adrian Mowat, emerging Asia equity strategist with JPMorgan, in a note to clients.

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINSP22876920080808?rpc=44&sp=true

Banks were mixed after Royal Bank of Scotland kept the sector's woes firmly in the spotlight, but its own results were not as bad as expected. A 5.9 billion pound writedown on risky assets sent Britain's second-biggest bank to a first-half loss of 691 million pounds, -- less than feared, but still one of the biggest losses in British corporate history.

"It's all a matter of expectations," LBBW's Koehler said. "At the moment, markets reward results that meet or only slightly miss estimates with rising share prices," he added.

Barclays also had a huge multi-billion writedown.

 

[Spaf]

Financials are like a too big anchor!......:suspicious:

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINSP22876920080808?rpc=44&sp=true

Barclays also had a huge multi-billion writedown.

 

[Spaf]

Friday Aug 8 09:20 Crude oil dropping, Stocks going up!.....:nuts:

 

[luv2read]

Friday, August 08, 2008
Noon update:

COMP pushes up to 2401, closing its June gap. It's interesting to note that in that respect, NDX is lagging. If 2401 holds at the close, we should get 2425 next week.
I am repeating the various gap closes on futures: NQ 1931.25, ES 1322.25 and YM 11800. That does not mean we will get there, just a heads up. Use the COMP and bonds as guidelines. Also oil getting back up above 117 would be a negative. So far, it's holding as reisistance.
We are very close to a cycle high for the summer, so stick to day trades on your longs. My guess is that we are done by next Thurdsay, but it can happen sooner, maybe even today.
Note the 200 dma's coming up for NDX/QQQQ and NQ.

Open:

Bears fail to push for an NDX lower low and we get a rally off crude losing 117 support. We are now looking straight at the June 25 gaps (QQQQ 46.70/47.56). NQ has resistance at 1918 on a break above 1907.75. Support is 1995. Watch COMP 2401, its gap close as well.

http://aheadofthenews.com/

 

[Spaf]

Well, Friday on the S&P resistance was about 1291, see post No. 1 at:

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=174138&postcount=1

The Friday advance for the S&P stopped at 1296, a 5 point break through of the trading range resistance.

Oil had closed out at $115.20 a drop of 4.82 points.

The question now is, will the advance hold, or will it fall back into the trading range.

I think we should wait awhile - At least one day, maybe two or three, to confirm the trading range breakout. Running into a wave of selling after a breakout is not uncommon.

 

[FogSailing]

The Russia/Geogia thing is either going to be resolved quickly, or it's going to have a negative impact on oil. Oil uses any excuse to drive up it's price. IMHO Beware..

FS

 

[Birchtree]

Let the possum butt Russians invade Georgia and end up trapped. We will supply them (Georgia) with armament that is fairly sophisticated and may even deploy some boots from Iraq to further complicate the issues - do the Russians want to fight the 101st Airborne? Not if they are smart. Do they want to deal with the 7th Armored Calvary - not if they are smart. The Russian population may even rise up in protest. It'll be darn interesting because world support will be with Georgia. They will realize real soon just exactly how weak they really are. I mean US advisers have been training the Georgian military and are still in country. Putin should pull back from all that sumptuous possum butt.

 

[Spaf]

Well thats all foe this week, see ya next week!​

Spaf​