Market Talk / August 27 - September 2

[Spaf]

The Kingdom of TSP
Sunday-Weekly
Early Edition
August 27, 2006​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak..................................Waiting for the Thursday and Friday economic reports!

Con-Yak.................................Lube's over 72, storms headed our way, and Iran starts up a reactor!

Jester-Yak..............................Applebee's down, McDonald's up! A burger's a burger?!

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at.............1,295.09, dn -7.31 for the week.
Volume (CMF) (money flow)........+0.095, decreasing.
Averages (MACD) (trend)...........+8.875, decreasing.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal)........81.12, decreasing.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold...[70]....59.73....[30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at................72.51, up +1.37, for the week.
Oil Markers..............................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Charts & Stuff..........................Green / Yellow [Doodles +1-4 / Lube > 70].

Tin Box:
Position...................................100% socks.
Stops [$SPX]............................Alert (-1%): 1289. Trail (-2%): 1276.

TSP (week ending)......G=11.52..F=10.87..C=14.23..S=16.71..I=19.84
....(1 week past)........G=11.51..F=10.85..C=14.31..S=16.95..I=20.05
....(2 week past)........G=11.50..F=10.77..C=13.91..S=16.34..I=19.49
....(3 week past)........G=11.49..F=10.79..C=14.04..S=16.74..I=19.70
....(4 week past)........G=11.47..F=10.74..C=14.02..S=16.69..I=19.59

 

[robo]

Stocks: August Doldrums Setting Up September Fireworks

Stock markets have been trading sideways for months now and this has turned the average investor quite bearish -- exactly what you want to see if you're a contrarian investor. Since the May high (April in NASDAQ), stocks have seen a sharp correction and a rebound to near old highs. At the same time, sentiment has gone from overly-bullish to persistently overly-bearish on our short term option trader gauges. Longer term investors are now growling bears who point to everything from a "tapped-out" consumer to terrorism fears as reasons to avoid the stock market.

This is exactly what a contrarian investor should be taking as a good sign that the market is forming a long term low and buying opportunity. Historically, this is the pattern of sentiment that is seen at bottoms. And, typically, this kind of sentiment backdrop is followed by gains of 50% and more in the broad market. Examination of the following chart should be instructive -- see if you can spot the buying opportunities:

http://marketclues.blogspot.com/

 

[JOVARN]

I YOU LIKE TO BUY BAD NEWS he is some more to stimulate your appetite This article is brought to you by the masters of spin FOX NEWS
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,210648,00.html
Looming over the market is a mounting debate among strategists and economists over whether the United States is heading for a gradual economic slowdown, or a full-fledged recession, especially after weaker home sales this week.

 

[JOVARN]

Ill wait for the NASDAQ to drop another 2% and then I am back in. With the trading delay, I am just not fast enought to swim with the big fish

 

[Dave M]

Find a place where the water is just right, just deep enough to provide the lift you need. Beware of falls! D

Edit: Back on topic, it looks like a difficult week. Lot's of statistics are updated this week so mood could shift day to day. I'm staying in my 40% so let's hope the news is good!

 

[tsptalk]

The Dow's up 60 pts but I'm not trusting this rally. The volume is very light and it is Monday morning. It could turn on a dime.

 

[vectorman]

The Dow's up 60 pts but I'm not trusting this rally. The volume is very light and it is Monday morning. It could turn on a dime.

Looking at todays IFT list, alot of money coming out of the G and F fund for tomorrows play. Alot of bets on the I fund. This could be interesting to see if this is a contrarian indicator for a head fake or the real deal. .

 

[Birchtree]

If the market holds - we currently have a new all-time high on the DJUA at 441.97. That bodes well for the intermediate future. Snort.

 

[tsptalk]

I suspect the market will move too quickly this week to try to time our TSP moves. One thing for sure: The market will always keep us off balance. The last week of August, normally very weak, starts off with a bang.

Reminds of the week between Xmas and New Years last year. Historically one of the strongest weeks of the year. In 2005 it was pretty bad. You never know.

Again with the low volume trading, any hint of bad news will turn this ship around pretty quickly. Remember, there is a new jobs report coming out this week (Friday).

 

[vectorman]

NASDAQ has some more room to move up before hitting some major resistance. Sure would be nice to see a repeat of the first week of Nov 2005, while no one is suspecting it.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=NASDAQ

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
August 28, 2006 Closing

​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................Socks rally as storm turns north and lube pulls back!

Con-Yak...................................Still the season!

Jester-Yak................................Whew!!

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1301.73, up +6.69
Volume (CMF) (money flow).........+0.108, increasing.
Averages (MACD) (trend)............+9.148, increasing.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal).........86.34, increasing.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold....[70] 63.10 [30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at..................70.61, dn -1.90
Oil Markers................................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Charts & Stuff............................Green / Yellow [doodles +5-0 / Lube > 70]

Tin Box:
Position....................................100% socks.
Stops [$SPX].............................Alert: 1289. Trail: 1276.

 

[robo]

S&P SPDRS (AMEX: SPY) Pull Back From Resistance

August 28, 2006

The exchange-traded fund S&P Depositary Receipts SPDRs (AMEX: SPY) briefly touched a critical resistance level at $130.43 last week and then pulled back.

While the SPDRs have been stronger than the rest of the market, this resistance level is crucial to the continuation of the current advance. The SPDRs must make a decisive close above this level in coming days. If they do traders can expect a rally to challenge the prior May 2006 highs. If not, we are likely to correct at least to the $127.00 level in coming days.

 

[robo]

LowRisk.com

Investor Sentiment Report

8 / 28 / 2006


------------------------------------------------

Below are the results of our weekly "Guess the Dow"
sentiment survey. The survey was taken from Monday 8/21
through Sunday 8/27 on the LowRisk.com web site.

30 day outlook:

16% bullish, 26% previous week
67% bearish, 59% previous week
18% neutral, 15% previous week

(percentages may not sum to 100 due to rounding)

The median guess for the Dow closing value on Friday, 9/8:
11081 (it was 11003 last week).

More complete sentiment data is available at:
http://www.lowrisk.com/sentiment.htm

Please put in your opinion on the market for next week. It
really helps our data. It only takes a minute at:

http://www.lowrisk.com/guess.htm


best regards,
Jeff Walker


Disclaimer:

The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky. The
foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or
sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.

Copyright (c) 2006 by Jeff Walker, Bayfield, CO.

 

[robo]

8-28-06

Stocks: Short-Covering Sends Market Soaring

It was too hot for some of the bears Monday as they became buyers and closed out their short positions on an otherwise slow semi-holiday Monday. London was closed and volume in New York was only about 2¼ billion shares, down from a typical day of close to 3 billion shares. That makes the sharp rally a bit suspect in terms of validity, but the rise was apparently enough to convince a few of the weak hands to cover their losing positions and help the bulls out a bit.

The markets will be looking forward to Friday morning when the Labor Department will release the August Employment Report. The bond market has been rallying on the idea of a slowing economy and, considering how low interest rates have gone based upon that assumption, a strong report would undoubtedly send bonds into a profit-taking tailspin. So, the stakes are incredibly high for bonds. And, since stocks tend to follow bonds (with a variable lag time), the report will be a key component in setting the trend for stocks in coming months.

 

[James48843]

Oil is falling -

I paid $2.76 a gallon for gas today- and I think that's good.

Snort.

Falling gas prices.....

A bullish sign.

 

[James48843]

Note:

Tom, somehow I have not gotten the sentiment survey last week or this past week. Don't know how I fell off the mailing list, but I can't even find how to get back on.

I've found it very useful.

Any ideas?

 

[Show-me]

"With markets now pricing less than 25 percent odds of further Fed tightening, and assigning a high probability of an easing in 2007, there is some risk that an upside surprise in the U.S. numbers prompts some rethinking," said UBS strategist Mansoor Mohi-uddin.

 

[vectorman]

Just for info.....GDP comes out tomorrow at 8:30am est.

http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/econodayframe.asp?page=http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/index.html

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
August 29, 2006 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................Late hour advance and lube below 70, Wow!

Con-Yak...................................I think the Cartel Creature ate my lunch!

Jester-Yak................................Neat a hammer!

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1304.28, up +2.50
Volume (CMF) (money flow).........+0.148, increasing.
Averages (MACD) (trend)............+9.456, increasing.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal).........90.98, increasing.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold....[70] 64.30 [30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at..................69.71, dn -0.90
Oil Markers................................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Charts & Stuff............................Green / Green [doodles +5-0 / Lube < 70]

Tin Box:
Position....................................100% socks.
Stops [$SPX].............................Alert: 1291. Trail: 1278.

 

[tsptalk]

James -
I'm guessing maybe your ISP is blocking it. I saw a big drop off in response the past two weeks on the sentiment surveys (from ~300 responses to < 200). Perhaps it is the time of year, or maybe they are being blocked more often.

You can go here http://www.tsptalk.com/email_alerts.html and enter your email address again. If it is already there, it will ask if you want to change which email list you are on.

Hope that helps,
Tom

Note:

Tom, somehow I have not gotten the sentiment survey last week or this past week. Don't know how I fell off the mailing list, but I can't even find how to get back on.

I've found it very useful.

Any ideas?