Market Talk / Aug. 24 - 30

[Spaf]

Market Talk
Sunday Edition
August 24, 2008​

General Commentary:

It should be called the "sock market!" Energy socks, financial socks, storm socks, and just plain (pain) doom & gloom socks. The rally on Friday couldn't get us past the losses of Monday and Tuesday. According to my calandar (Mike's Hardware & Pblg) Wednesday and Thursday may be good fishing days.

Last Monday and Tuesday did some real technical damage to the charts. You can almost draw what you want! A lot of folks are just sitting on the sidelines.

A look at the chart(s)
The S&P500 [$SPX] Daily
Large Caps

Charts courtesy of www.StockCharts.com​

The 50d E-moving average is now within the pricing candle.

The P-SAR turned bearish in it's trend, after the steep Monday decline.

Volume has been low for the past several weeks.

The S-STO was at 50.49 and could go either way.

And, the MACD has returned to about neutral.

Well, that's it for the weekend!​

Be careful out there!​

 

[luv2read]

http://aheadofthenews.com/

QQQQ update
Sunday, August 24, 2008
The most potent analytical tool traders have at their disposal is confluence and correlation of two or more events at or near the same price. In the case of QQQQ (and NDX/NQ), the image is striking. When a very large gap such as the June 25 gap is closed (46.70/47.57), it often pays to keep it on your charts just in case it is revisited. This is precisely what happened last week. After the option expiration week short squeeze, we settled back down into that old gap and were unable to close the week above (Friday's close is at 47.49). Where the numbers start lining up is at the 10 day moving average (blue line). Notice the rejection the past few trading days and the fact that it now sits right at 47.57, the June 25 gap ex-gap close and the kind of confluence we look for. The third correlation is even more dangerous: 50% of the July high/low projection. To sum it up, QQQQ 47.57 is the old June gap close, the 10 dma and 50%. Quite a lineup that could make 47.57 one of the most important price points of the year. The task for bulls is pretty straightforward: close back up above 47.57 and hold it. Bears will want to defend it at all costs.

We are entering the week prior to a major holiday when we often see run-ups into the weekend. However, this is not the kind of environment where one can rely on such easy setups. What we did last year has so far been reversed almost to the day on a calendar basis.

For futures traders, NQ 1933 represents the approximate equivalent of QQQQ 47.57. Friday's close was 1929.50.

 

[James48843]

From CNBC this morning:



The U.S. economy expanded at a stronger-than-first-reported 3.3 percent annual rate in the second quarter, as consumer spending and net exports were more robust than initially estimated and inventories fell less sharply, a government report showed on Thursday.

Should be good for the markets today.

 

[James48843]

But do not overlook this:

View attachment 4549
​

Starting to look pretty nasty.​

 

[Guest2]

From CNBC this morning:
The U.S. economy expanded at a stronger-than-first-reported 3.3 percent annual rate in the second quarter, as consumer spending and net exports were more robust than initially estimated and inventories fell less sharply, a government report showed on Thursday. Should be good for the markets today.

Exports are carrying us for now, without them, growth was only about
0.2 percent. But the economy is NOT as bad as some analyst have, in
the past, reported. Then again, the Market still questions the validity of
the data. As they said on CNBC, each and every report accompanies a
surprise. That might have lead to the markets inability to break through
previous highs. (S&P500,,,1314?) Close enough ! I feel the same as
Leasman does; traders are looking to get off the train of doom and
gloom. Maybe September will surprise us all. That is, until retail sales
starts to dictate direction in late September, early October. Oil prices
will certainly dictate what I'm capable of spending for Christmas. And
lets not forget Natural Gas which is overdue for a bull run.

 

[Spaf]

Sunday!​

Will be closing this weekly thread out and starting anew, thanks for the comments and views!​

Spaf​