Market Talk / April 2 - 8

[Rod]

Re: Duck - here comes some bull manure

I stopped listening a while back.

Another "disciple" of my signature...

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
April 6, 2006 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Market Yak..............................Socks mixed! Bearish AM / Bullish PM.
Other Yak................................Lube up! Infaltion worries triggered.

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1309.04, dn -2.52
Volume (CMF) (money flow).........+0.014, increasing.
Averages (MACD) (trend)............+5.382, increasing.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal).........83.35, increasing.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold....[70] 59.15 [30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at..................67.94, up +0.87
Oil Markers................................<64= ok, 64-69= worry, >69= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Charts & Stuff............................Green.

Tin Box:
Position....................................60% Socks
Stops [$SPX].............................Alert: 1306, Trail: 1294

 

[Wheels]

Since I jumped into the G fund last week, the S fund is up over 1 1/2%. The I is up over 3 1/2% The I is ahead of me now by around 4 1/2%. Please Tom or somebody, capitulate and jump in so this thing will settle down a bit.

Dave
<><

 

[Rod]

Since I jumped into the G fund last week, the S fund is up over 1 1/2%. The I is up over 3 1/2% The I is ahead of me now by around 4 1/2%. Please Tom or somebody, capitulate and jump in so this thing will settle down a bit.

Dave
<><

How much will you pay me???

 

[Birchtree]

What you think is expensive today will look cheap thirty days from now - go ahead and bite the bullit - try some gentle dollar cost averaging to the upside, that way if you get caught in a correction you still have powder to even up on the down side. Skip is right - some big ones coming to make people even more nervous - and mostly to the upside.

 

[Spaf]

Wheels,
Jumping in on increments is kind of like Birch and the dollar cost averaging i.e., 20%, and another 20% and, so on. This kind of takes the bite out of the 1-2 day trading time. April give or take a month is generally the last of the best 6-months. However, each fund need it's seperate evaluation.
Right now the economy is doing good and the Fed interest rates may be leveling.:nuts: .... Energy is a problem, but it's been a problem since 2004. ....2006 is suppose to be a good year, and the April indicators are in the buy position. The future is the real problem with investing, but then again that's the name of the game.:cheesy:
Rgds, and be careful!................ ...................Spaf

 

[tsptalk]

The market sure liked the jobs report numbers early on (211,000 vs 190,000 est.) but the sell off that usually comes a day or more later came right away. This may mean we get a buying opportunity in a couple of days. Did I say that out loud?

www.tsptalk.com/blog.

 

[Gilligan]

What you think is expensive today will look cheap thirty days from now

I don’t believe it, I actually agree with Birchtree on this one.

 

[Birchtree]

My wife gets her defined contribution money on the close today - there is always a small blessing somewhere if one looks hard enough. However, in a bullish uptrend, price patterns will tend to open lower and gain through out the day. Three hours to go - these intraday movements can be opportunities but I'm passing on this one. In already up to my eyeballs.

 

[Birchtree]

Snort - no shakeout here. This was all about partisanship and the failure to pass tax relief extension. Bull manure has always been good at covering up the smell of a politician skunk.

 

[JOVARN]

Go Birch and take the I fund with you along for the ride

 

[Dave M]

Good Ol' I-fund

Right on -- the I-fund gives me a net plus for the week. D

 

[Spaf]

Last week was pretty good, till Friday, that is..........

........Woops!

 

[JOVARN]

Manila Times:
Stock prices also suffered because of revived interest-rate worries stemming from steady job growth. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 96.46 points to end at 11,120.04 while the Nasdaq composite index shed 22.15 points and closed at 2,339.02.

"So no reason to panic for the Fed, but certainly more reason for them to take rates a little higher," Denison added.

Not every sector recorded job growth in March

Manufacturing employment declined 5,000 after shrinking 10,000 in February and transportation industries shed 7,600 jobs last month. But overall hiring in service businesses grew 202,000 last month after increasing 194,000 in February. Goods-producing industries increased payrolls overall by 9,000 in March, fewer than the 31,000 new hires in February.

I am wondering if they are playing with the numbers. Is the jobs report counting outsourcing mainly to India as a means of creating 202K business jobs. Or does that even matter ?

 

[learning]

The market sure liked the jobs report numbers early on (211,000 vs 190,000 est.) but the sell off that usually comes a day or more later came right away. This may mean we get a buying opportunity in a couple of days. Did I say that out loud?

www.tsptalk.com/blog.

Well Tom, You called it so far. I'm game on this one. I have too much money in G. Another bad one or two days of bleeding and I am in. More to the I and C fund. However, the contrarian theory may hold and the bottom will really drop. No, Please NO!

 

[JOVARN]

A little bit for everyone
Full story can be found at
http://money.aol.com/news/articles?id=n20060407145809990001

it's clear that big U.S. stocks face much more competition for investor dollars than ever before. With nearly everything else working, why should investors bother with blue chips?
Strategists citing the cyclical argument have been predicting a blue chip comeback for 18 months. It hasn't happened yet.

"The time to make money," said Lord Rothschild, "is when there is blood on the streets." Big stocks are clearly wounded. "It actually hurts to say this again," wrote ISI's Trennert in a Feb. 27 research note to clients, "but we believe large caps are due."

Meanwhile, another Fidelity fund, $50 billion Magellan, recently dumped blue chips Pfizer, Intel, and Procter & Gamble and boosted its foreign holdings to 25%, up from 4% just a few months ago.

Bank on this: The blue chips will see another bull market, and perhaps soon. But with so many choices at investors' fingertips, the easy money may have already been made. Diversification is back. And that's not a bad thing.

Since 2003, net flows to international-stock mutual funds have more than tripled, to $150 billion, while flows into U.S. funds have plunged from $154 billion to $64 billion. In January, foreign equity funds' inflows almost doubled those of December.

 

[JOVARN]

Well Tom, You called it so far. I'm game on this one. I have too much money in G. Another bad one or two days of bleeding and I am in. More to the I and C fund. However, the contrarian theory may hold and the bottom will really drop. No, Please NO!

Can we tone down rhetoric regarding bleeding for another day or so please
Thank You

Good luck to all

 

[Birchtree]

Excellent article

Jovarn,

Thanks for sharing the article - that's what is nice about this board, we try to share information to help each other.

"But betting against fund flows, prevailing sentiment, and trend lines has made contrarian investors rich over the years."

My problem is I'm usually early. I was early on the small caps and early on the internationals and now I'm early on the high cappers. But that doesn't really matter - I'll just keep dollar cost averaging while prices are cheap - all I have is time to accumulate more shares in the venerable and unappreciated C fund. My wife has the other two positions and is also dollar cost averaging. So as a family unit we are squared up. I just finished my tax preparations - you know exactly where your money is when you labor for hours. My wife will be opening a deferred comp plan with the State of Florida that allows individual stock selections with automatic dividend reinvestments. It's run by Sharebuilders.

 

[Spaf]

Will be closing this week's thread. See U on the thread for next week...

...Rgds and be Careful!...Spaf