Market Talk / April 2 - 8

[Spaf]

The Kingdom of TSP
Sunday-Weekly
Early Edition
April 2, 2006​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Market Yak..............................Last week the S&P couldn't break the resistance barrier of 1310, try as it might, five times. We had broken out of the trading range of 1297, but couldn't get the advances we needed. Since late December we have had four highs and four lows, resulting in an advancing but very choppy market. Short term trading caution is now in order since we appear to be coming down from another high.
Other Yak...............................Why is it so choppy? Is it the rising interest rates? Higher bond yields? Or, worry over / high oil prices?
Jester Yak..............................The 1st quarter ended good, the S&P was up 3.7%, and the 50dMA is still rising.

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at.............1,294.83, dn -8.12, for the week.
Volume (CMF) (money flow)........-0.010, decreasing.
Averages (MACD) (trend)...........+4.557, decreasing.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal)........62.21, decreasing.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold...[70] 51.09 [30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at................66.63, up +2.37, for the week.
Oil Markers..............................<64= ok, 64-69= worry, >69= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Charts & Stuff..........................Mix of Yellow and Red.

Tin Box:
Position...................................75G, 05F, 10C, 05S, and 05I
Stops [$SPX]............................Alert: NA, Trail: 1,294

TSP (week ending)......G=11.28..F=10.61..C=14.12..S=17.85..I=19.24
....(1 week past)........G=11.27..F=10.68..C=14.20..S=17.60..I=19.12
....(2 week past)........G=11.26..F=10.68..C=14.25..S=17.48..I=19.15
....(3 week past)........G=11.25..F=10.62..C=13.96..S=17.07..I=18.50
....(4 week past)........G=11.24..F=10.65..C=14.02..S=17.36..I=18.56

 

[Wheels]

Re: Market Talk / April 2 - April 8

Not what I wanted to see. As I go to bed Sunday night, Japan and Australia are off to the races.

Dave
<><

 

[tsptalk]

Re: Market Talk / April 2 - April 8

Futures up big as well, but I don't really see any riveting news-wise.

 

[LA_Guy]

Precious metals strike multi-year highs

SINGAPORE – Gold matched a 25-year high above $588 an ounce and platinum hit another record peak of $1,093 on Friday, as fund managers poured money into precious metals in the hope of reaping better returns.

http://www.biz-day.com/read/industrial/02_apr_06/hd3qa-3/precious_metals_strike_multi_year_highs.htm

 

[Spaf]

Re: Market Talk / April 2 - April 8

C is turning into a sell. F could have some buy potential. I is still a hold, and so is S. Stocks can follow the US market, so caution is needed.

 

[TiCKed]

Re: Market Talk / April 2 - April 8

Futures up big as well, but I don't really see anything riveting news-wise.

I know what's going on.....

On Saturday, I submitted an order to deposit another $1000 into my Roth IRA. I'm doomed to NEVER buy low.

 

[Spaf]

Re: Market Talk / April 2 - April 8

TiCKed,
Don't you have a money market account or some sort of cash account that you clould let it rest in till the market has a low ebb?.....:worried: ......Spaf

 

[TiCKed]

Re: Market Talk / April 2 - April 8

TiCKed,
Don't you have a money market account or some sort of cash account that you clould let it rest in till the market has a low ebb?.....:worried: ......Spaf

Define "Low".

Guess I'm more bullish than I let on.....

And my IRA mutual fund is a balanced fund. 35% Bonds, so it's at a relative low.

 

[Spaf]

Re: Market Talk / April 2 - April 8

TiCKed,............... .............Spaf

 

[Rod]

Re: Market Talk / April 2 - April 8

Not what I wanted to see. As I go to bed Sunday night, Japan and Australia are off to the races.

Dave
<><

It'll probably reverse come Tuesday.

 

[Birchtree]

Could this be a 40 point week on the SPX - similar to the first week 1/06?

I wouldn't sell the C fund - S fund is certainly overextended but I wouldn't sell it either at this time.

 

[JOVARN]

The key business survey was released late on Friday and that's whats driving the Asian Market. I believe this may be a short lived boost with a better opportunity to buy back in at a later date. ONE CAN ONLY HOPE. Oil is back over $67/B The council last week gave Iran 30 days to halt enrichment, but Tehran rejected the call and analysts remain concerned that it could resort to using oil for leverage. Its a crap shoot, timers will just have to get very lucky over the next few weeks if they want to make money.
AP
Nearly All Asian Markets Rise
Monday April 3, 7:12 am ET
Nearly All Asian Markets Rise, With Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore Hitting Multiyear Highs
HONG KONG (AP) -- Stock markets across nearly all of Asia rose Monday, with shares in Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore hitting multiyear highs, and Chinese stocks climbing to a 16-month high.
Markets in Australia and New Zealand, meanwhile, reached fresh records

Japanese stocks surged to their highest level in more than 5 1/2 years, boosted by upbeat results in a key business survey. The benchmark Nikkei 225 index rose 273.65 points, or 1.60 percent, to 17,333.31 points -- its highest close since July 12, 2000.

Advancers included machinery maker Fanuc Ltd., which rose 3.09 percent. Real estate developer Mitsui Fudosan Co. rose 1.48 percent, while Matsushita Electric Industrial Co. picked up 1.13 percent.

In currency trading, the U.S. dollar bought 118.53 yen on the Tokyo foreign exchange market late Monday, up 0.82 yen from late Friday in New York. The euro slipped to US$1.2048 from US$1.2115

It sounds really great, looks like a perfect opportunity for profit taking.

 

[The_Technician]

Hello all,

I'm back in the saddle....what a quarter.....wonder what is going to happen next Lazerus coming.......

The Technician

 

[The_Technician]

Current market strategies...

Of course you guys know I'm quite the conservative....if we can just get through the next month unscathed......here is an article that has a similar view as I....

http://money.cnn.com/2006/03/28/markets/markets_bearbull/index.htm

 

[JOVARN]

What was I thinking? My last thread looked good when I was writing it.
Got caught 80G 20 I

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
April 3, 2006 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Market Yak..............................Rally to Wane! Sell-off leaves socks mixed. Major cart mfg looses sales.
Other Yak................................High energy bills could be an invitation for Horseman Inflate.

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1297.81, up +2.98
Volume (CMF) (money flow).........-0.070, decreasing.
Averages (MACD) (trend)............+4.199, decreasing.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal).........46.02, decreasing.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold....[70] 53.10 [30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at..................66.74, up +0.11
Oil Markers................................<64= ok, 64-69= worry, >69= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Charts & Stuff............................Mixed yellow & red

Tin Box:
Position....................................20% Socks
Stops [$SPX].............................Alert: NA, Trail: 1294

 

[Birchtree]

I noticed that the Dow Transports at 4622.04 held their gains for another new all-time high. A Primary Dow Theory confirmation set up may be in the works - watch for some surprise upside this week. Dow over 11,722.98 is all that's needed -then we start to catch up to the Nikkei. The market seems to feel the Fed will pause - who cares at this point. This activity is bigger than the Fed and this expansion on a global basis has much room to run.

 

[The_Technician]

Hey did you hear the one about the Nutresweeet weight loss program ads…

There were these three people advertising the program and you know how it goes….the first one who looked to be a prominent business woman said…”I lost 25 lbs over three weeks and I feel great!”.

The second was a average man who said “I lost over 55 lbs in two months and I can now keep up with my son on the basketball court!”

The third person who looks like a regular couch potato, sort of like Pauley in the movie Rocky, said “Dat was a real good program, remember it well, I lost my wife wid that program, yeaper my wife …..She lost 45 lbs, left me thank God and found herself another feller!”

 

[Spaf]

The Kingdom of TSP
Start of the 2nd Quarter
April 2006​

April is still the best DOW month (average 1.8%) since 1950. April is rarely a dangerous month except in big bear markets, like 2002.

TSP funds had a great 1st quarter, except for the F-fund (bonds). It's not a fund problem but rather a reaction to increasing interest rates.

After April and the following 6 months, to October could be the cautious period. Attached is the current chart for TSP funds with a look back over the past year.

 

[Birchtree]

Gimme strength after 1500

I'm pushing for a solid buy run after 1500 to make up for yesterday. The market board looks good today - growth area seems to currently be leading the value area and this may confirm longevity to the current advance. The trend is up. Both price wise, breadth wise, and volume wise. And I think there are still considerable bear paws around eating humble pie.

Spaf,

I want that Dow of 11,722.98 - how long will I have to wait. It's already been six years. C'mon start spending some of that G cash.

Dennis