Market Talk / April 2 - 8

[Spaf]

Hello there Dennis!

Here's da plan: Ain't gonna buy high. If the advance holds, I'll be back in at the first lower high. I wanna make sure I get a bite of the dounut and not the hole.

Regards........................:cheesy: .........................Spaf

 

[JOVARN]

Senior China official urges cut in US debt holding By Kevin Yao and Benjamin Kang Lim
Tue Apr 4, 5:26 AM ET



BEIJING (Reuters) - China should trim its holdings of U.S. debt, a senior Chinese official said, rattling markets on Tuesday in the run-up to a visit by President Hu Jintao to Washington this month. This cannot be good!!

I am with SPAF the next drop I am back in. I am going to take the advice Dennis gave someone about 6 months ago. He said something like if he wasnt holding C fund he would buy and hold 50%I 50S I keep kicking myself in the asX for not following that logic.
Oh well tomorrow is another day.

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
April 4, 2006 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Market Yak..............................Stocks higher! Steady daily advance on good corporate news. Nasdaq on 5 yr high.
Other Yak................................The good 1st quarter brought some life back to the market. Lube dipped under $68

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1305.93, up +8.12
Volume (CMF) (money flow).........-0.055, increasing.
Averages (MACD) (trend)............+4.498, increasing.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal).........49.49, increasing.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold....[70] 58.16 [30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at..................66.23, dn -0.51
Oil Markers................................<64= ok, 64-69= worry, >69= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Charts & Stuff............................Mixed yellow & green.

Tin Box:
Position....................................20% Socks
Stops [$SPX].............................Alert: NA, Trail: 1294

 

[Birchtree]

More SPX please

I would like another 28.9 points on the SPX to end the week up 40 points. Do you think that is too much to ask for in a sweet bull market? Time has come.

 

[The_Technician]

Extreme highs

Haven't seen such extreme highs on the funds (except F,G) in a long time.... I understand the I fund is a good move if the dollar weakens, but the C and S funds I shake my head at.....:worried:

99% of the time its a poor move to buy in at an extreme high...I just can't see taken that position with out a close floor safely underneath....

Anything could be a reason to drop this party like a bad dream....be careful and protect what is hard to replace....

I still don't like the fact that the M3 has doubled in 9 years.....its the only way the Feds/corporations can drop your income without you taken a pay deduction....:embarrest:

Another day another dollar, now its another 2 dollar....

 

[FundSurfer]

Re: Extreme highs

I still don't like the fact that the M3 has doubled in 9 years.....its the only way the Feds/corporations can drop your income without you taken a pay deduction....:embarrest:

Actually it is a tax on the rest of the world. More US dollars are held by foriegners than by US citizens.

As to China selling dollars, they are in too deep. When they sell they devalue their own investment. The only way out for them is very long term slow paring down of their dollar holdings. They may sell some dollars here and there but if the dollar slips too much they may buy back dollars to protect their own investment.

If you had a pay deduction of half in the last 9 years then has your standard of living suffered?

 

[vectorman]

"Energy Dept showed a larger than expected draw down in distillates and gasoline inventories." May be a delayed reaction, but probably will be some big selling this afternoon in the DJTA index. I wonder how much the other markets will be effected? Is this a good short term buying opportunity? What's the herd going to do? Just an observation with the up coming Eployment number for friday. I notice a similar picture with the SPX where from the end of Nov 05 to the end of Dec 05, it was in a range. Thttp://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=SP500

Then prior to the Employment report released on Jan 6th, the market was down for a couple of days, then on the day of the report there was a big rally. What's amazing is the consensus was for 215,000, but the actual was 108,000. Should be interesting friday.

 

[mlk_man]

I advise you to go straight to G, do not pass Go. More money for me!!!

I'm starting to sound like Birchtree..........

Seriously, I don't know what to do. We are in that little "grey" area. I suspect Friday we'll break out, but which way........hmmmmmmm

 

[The_Technician]

Re: Extreme highs

Actually it is a tax on the rest of the world. More US dollars are held by foriegners than by US citizens.

As to China selling dollars, they are in too deep. When they sell they devalue their own investment. The only way out for them is very long term slow paring down of their dollar holdings. They may sell some dollars here and there but if the dollar slips too much they may buy back dollars to protect their own investment.

If you had a pay deduction of half in the last 9 years then has your standard of living suffered?

Yea, everything you buy will cost twice as much as it did 9 years ago....even stocks.....so this promotes a question, is the market going to go up because of economics of business, or because their $ value has increased due to $ being reduced in value.....I hadn't seen that doubling factor yet in the market, so the business economics must S^&%$!!!

 

[Soldat]

TradingMarkets.com
Why This Market May Just Keep On Going Up
Wednesday April 5, 10:47 am ET
By Gary Kaltbaum


Of course, there are chinks in the armor.
I could tell you that many important SEMICONDUCTOR stocks are rolling over. Have you looked at (NasdaqNM:KLAC - News), (NasdaqNM:LRCX - News), (NYSE:AMD - News), (NasdaqNM:NVLS - News), (NasdaqNM:AMAT - News), (NYSE:TER - News), (NasdaqNM:GNSS - News), (NasdaqNM:XLNX - News) and (NasdaqNM:INTC - News) which may be going to single digits in the next bear market?


I could tell you that the BOND MARKET continues to puke and in unison, so do the UTILITIES.

I could tell you that a bunch of RETAILERS have broken down. Have you looked at (NYSE:CHS - News), (NYSE:JWN - News), (NasdaqNM:URBN - News), (NasdaqNMSUN - News), (NYSE:TGT - News), (NYSE:COH - News), (NYSE:ARO - News) and (NYSE:ANF - News)?

I could tell you that HOUSING remains gross, though the selling seems to have abated.

But that's about it. Here are the positives.

WORLD MARKETS continue to roll. JAPAN is never going to have a down day again.

Major indices remain above all moving averages and have shown no ability to correct. Even a couple of ugly negative reversal days have been erased.

NEW LOWS...what new lows?

I know. The S&P has not had a 10% correction in...how many months? Yes, the market is due. Yes, around here would be a perfect time to start one. But until we even begin to see distribution that causes the market to break support levels, the market continues to get the benefit of the doubt. This remains one of the most disrespected markets we have seen in a long time. In fact, every time we get a down day, I get a slew of emails telling me the market has topped. Until that stops, maybe we just keep going and going.

Some sector notes:

OILS have turned up again. I will be looking for any light volume pullbacks for entry. Go figure. OIL back at $67 and the market doesn't care.

FINANCIALS are coming on again. Even lowly Citigroup NYSE:C broke above resistance on Tuesday. Another go figure. Rates are going higher and FINANCIALS are not only not getting smacked, they are going higher.

 

[The_Technician]

A/D line

The last time(s) the Advance/Decline ratio was in the same position chartwise..... March 2005 and Aug 2005....both times the market corrected....

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
April 5, 2006 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Market Yak..............................Socks higher, again! Earnings optimism. Plus>>Cartel prez gives hope of leveling rates.
Other Yak................................Lube up! gasoline supplies down.

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1311.56, up +5.63
Volume (CMF) (money flow).........-0.053, level.
Averages (MACD) (trend)............+5.139, increasing.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal).........66.47, increasing.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold....[70] 61.28 [30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at..................67.07, up +0.84
Oil Markers................................<64= ok, 64-69= worry, >69= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Charts & Stuff............................Green.

Tin Box:
Position....................................60% Socks
Stops [$SPX].............................Alert: 1306, Trail: 1294

 

[Birchtree]

It's OK - repeat after me - BULL MARKET!!!!!

Lots of new all-time highs again today under the slower DJIA:

DTA new all-time high at 4726.59
NYSE Composite new all-time high at 8369.17
AMEX Composite new all-time high at 1955.99
Wilshire 5000 new all-time high at 13,292.30
Russell 2000 new all-time high at 766.26
S&P Mid Cap 400 new all-time high at 799.51
S&P Small Cap 600 new all-time high at 396.21
NASDAQ Composite new recovery high at 2359.75

NDX is getting stronger and the DJU are next for new highs.

It's your money.

 

[Skip]

Something is getting ready to blow ! up or down its comming... This might be the correction. Alot of my stronger stocks are showing some weakness . That usually happens before we see the indexes follow...
Only time will tell..
Skip
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The Dow opened the session with another reversal from the upper boundary of the large range today, but later rallied from the day's lows back to the key 11,250 level, as seen in the 15 and 60 Minute Charts. The index continues to bang against this level and continues to walk the line beneath the major upper boundary of the range. The Dow gained 36 points on the day, but must break the 11,250 level with force before a significant rally can be seen. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The upper boundary of the sloping range continues to be poked and prodded, but hasn't broken yet. Since the index has tested this level three times in the last three days, you can be sure that a big break or reversal is on the horizon. Look for the Dow to get a decisive move away from this level tomorrow. An upside break through 11,250 could spark a very nice triple digit gain, while a downside reversal could make for a steady sell-off back toward the week's lows. Watch 11,200 for early signs of weakness. [/FONT]

Ed Downs
Updated Wednesday, 4/5 for Thursday's market.
See: http://www.signalwatch.com/markets/markets-dow.asp

 

[The_Technician]

Mor talk of the next 2 quarters

Check out the outlook expectations...

http://money.cnn.com/2006/04/06/markets/markets_2Qroadmap/index.htm

 

[Spaf]

The Kingdom of TSP​

From the Stock Trader's Almanac 2006​

Best Six Months Still an Eye-Popping Strategy​

Our Best Six Months Switching Strategy consistently delivers. Investing in th Dow Jones Industrial Average between November 1st and April 30th each year and then switching into fixed income for the other six months has produced reliable returns with reduced risk.

November, December, January, March and April have been the top months since 1950. Ok add February. These six months gained points in 55 years, while the remaining May through October months lost points.

 

[Birchtree]

I'm not so fast to run - this has been a very boring bull - but that's alright I'll stay with this bull all year. Dow above 11,279 means there is no more overhead resistance. Let'er rip even if slowly.

 

[FundSurfer]

Big investors may pull back from US stocks - study
Wed Apr 5, 2006 3:55 PM ET
NEW YORK, April 5 (Reuters) - U.S. institutional investors funded part of their growing appetite for international equities, real estate and alternative asset classes by shifting out of domestic bonds in recent months, a new study shows.
The next to suffer in that allocation shift may be U.S. stocks, according to the study from financial research firm Greenwich Associates.
...
http://yahoo.reuters.com/stocks/QuoteCompanyNewsArticle.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060405:MTFH82223_2006-04-05_19-56-30_N05364823&symbol=.SPX&rpc=44

 

[Birchtree]

Duck - here comes some bull manure

Investors were reassured after Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker said he isn't concerned about inflation. Dalla Fed President Richard Fisher said he doesn't see signs of recession, either. Their comments stimulated hope that, though the Fed may raise its target interest rate at its next meeting, May 10, it may stop soon after.

At this point in time does anybody really care what they do? I certainly don't. I stopped listening a while back.

 

[Spaf]

Ducking!!!!................