Market Talk / April 1st - 7th

[Spaf]

The Kingdom of TSP
Sunday Weekly
Early Edition
April, 01, 2007​

Yak, Le Charts, Doodles, Tea Leaves, The Tin Box & The Tally Can

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak.....................................Fundamentals appear dented! A toss up!

Con-Yak....................................Be careful that Krude doesn't panic the bulls.

Jester-Yak.................................I heard the S&P was only up 0.2% YTD??

Le Charts

Charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com​

Doodles:
Stops......................................Alert (-1%).....Trail (-2%)
.....SPX...................................X1423............1409

Dollar.......................................82.92 -0.38 for the week ending...$USD

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at..............65.87 +3.59 for the week ending...NYMEX
Oil Markers................................<60= ok, 60-65= worry, >65= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Yellow.

Tin Box.
TSP (week ending)......G=11.85..F=11.31..C=15.78..S=19.51..I=23.13
....(1 week past)........G=11.84..F=11.32..C=15.96..S=19.67..I=23.24
....(2 week past)........G=11.83..F=11.34..C=15.41..S=18.95..I=22.30
....(3 week past)........G=11.82..F=11.31..C=15.58..S=19.14..I=22.50
....(4 week past)........G=11.81..F=11.33..C=15.40..S=18.94..I=22.06

....(end of 2006)........G=11.71..F=11.14..C=15.69..S=18.76..I=22.22

Tally Can.
Top 10 last 12 mo........................View attachment 1540
................................................Courtesy of Fundsurfer's Leader Tally Chart

 

[Spaf]

Behind high oil and gas prices​

Gas prices will go up -- but American drivers are as much to blame as Iran, says Fortune's Nelson Schwartz.​

By Nelson D. Schwartz, Fortune senior writer
March 30 2007: 9:49 AM EDT

http://money.cnn.com/2007/03/30/news/international/pluggedin_schwartz_iran.fortune/index.htm

 

[vectorman]

Looking at the Account talk thread, there's alot of member going into the G. Maybe too many. Looking back at the Apr charts for the last four years, the second trading day in Apr is usually up. Maybe tomorrow will be different and everyone in the G will be right.

 

[SkiUtah]

The ebb tracker shows all red, and trader Fred's submodels are starting to squeeeeekkkk...

 

[James48843]

Hey, you know that "Trader Fred sees a big move today.."? ?


APRIL FOOLS........

 

[Wolverine]

Well, I did this flip the coin 3 times thingie today that I seen posted sometime back and it came up 3-Tails and that equals G Fund for tomorrow so it said. LOL I have no idea who gave this flip the coin thing out now.

 

[Birchtree]

The Dow Jones Utility Average is now at a new all-time high with a value of 509.36. That's a good omen. Makes me feel fortunate that I was fortuitous enough to own a handful of'em.

 

[nnuut]

Well, I did this flip the coin 3 times thingie today that I seen posted sometime back and it came up 3-Tails and that equals G Fund for tomorrow so it said. LOL I have no idea who gave this flip the coin thing out now.

Guess who? Works for me!!

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=78486&postcount=1099

 

[Wolverine]

Guess who? Works for me!!

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=78486&postcount=1099

HaHa......I was trying to think who it was and wondered if it was a nnuut who might have done it. LOL

A back-up plan can always be useful ya know.

 

[nnuut]

Surely! How about that "C" and "S" up in unison! Not much, but I'll take it!!!!

 

[Spaf]

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
April 02, 2007 Closing​

Yak, Le Charts, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tally Can

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................Bumpy with small gains?

Con-Yak...................................Lube on Iran watch!

Jester-Yak................................No catalysts!

Le Charts

Charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com​

Doodles:
Stops.......................................Alert (-1%)....Trail (-2%)
.....SPX........1424.55 +3.69.........1423.............1409

Dollar........................................82.86 +0.06 for the day.

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at...............65.94 +0.07 for the day.
Oil Markers.................................<60= ok, 60-65= worry, >65= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Yellow.

Tally Can
TSP Funds..................................G-fund, F-fund, C-fund, S-fund, I-fund.
Top 10 last 12 mo........................4.6 ......3.0 ......0.3 .....0.8 ......1.4
Today........................................3 made IFT(s), 76% bearish, 24% bullish.
Friday........................................4 made IFT(s), 70% bearish, 30% bullish.

 

[robo]

Monday, April 02, 2007
Something going to break tomorrow
I can not explain it here but I am positive about a huge range expansion in the general market tomorrow. Direction of it will depend on who will win this round. It could be upside as well as downside but the move should be powerful.

There has been a constant bidder(s) under the market for the last 4-6 trading days. I am not sure how long they can sustain it but we are near the end, I am convinced today.

After 2:15 ET , mysterious bidder showed up to rescue the impending breakdown once again but this time additionally he or they also pushed the crude lower to get extra ammunition from weak shorts.

Tomorrow will be huge.

http://xtrends.blogspot.com/

 

[Show-me]

Concur! S&P is resting up against the 50 dma and feels like it is going to pop. Question is which way? I'm waiting for the next drive down.

 

[airlift]

Robo,
Just in case this last post comes to fruition, I am in the G fund as per Tom and also the ebbtracker. Seems we are in a very high risk area, and we are in a longer time frame to grow our accounts anyway. So, a little risk avoidance is wise.

Monday, April 02, 2007
Something going to break tomorrow
I can not explain it here but I am positive about a huge range expansion in the general market tomorrow. Direction of it will depend on who will win this round. It could be upside as well as downside but the move should be powerful.

There has been a constant bidder(s) under the market for the last 4-6 trading days. I am not sure how long they can sustain it but we are near the end, I am convinced today.

After 2:15 ET , mysterious bidder showed up to rescue the impending breakdown once again but this time additionally he or they also pushed the crude lower to get extra ammunition from weak shorts.

Tomorrow will be huge.

http://xtrends.blogspot.com/

 

[The_Technician]

Robo,
Just in case this last post comes to fruition, I am in the G fund as per Tom and also the ebbtracker. Seems we are in a very high risk area, and we are in a longer time frame to grow our accounts anyway. So, a little risk avoidance is wise.

Add this to the mix....

NEW YORK - In yet another sign that U.S. economic growth may be slowing, manufacturing companies reported Monday that business expanded at a lower-than-expected pace in March even as prices surged for raw materials.
The Institute for Supply Management, a trade group of corporate purchasing executives, said its manufacturing index registered 50.9 in March, below the February reading of 52.3 and Wall Street's expectation of 51.
A reading above 50 indicates growth for the sector, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
Despite the sluggish growth, prices appeared to be surging for certain commodities, including aluminum, cobalt, copper, corn, corrugated containers, diesel fuel, natural gas and steel, as demand increased around the world. The ISM's price index shot up to 65.5 in March from 59 in February, causing unease among analysts and investors.

I really like the title of the article, it made it sound like it was a positive thing....seems we are in the mists of slight of hand practices....

It was given by Britain in recent news this morning that there is a time table that we all may want to keep in mind.....48 hours and counting to I RAN....the little pricks keep up their loser propaganda.....wish we would just give them want they want .... a final episode for their dream trip to see Allah....except, Allah won't take them in for killing innocent humans and what ever.....their families will suffer for centuries....nothing but a bunch of mafia related cousins.....

So how is your morning.....???:nuts:

 

[airlift]

Tech,
I concur. Moreover, Factory orders and ISM services come out tomorrow (4/4), and initial claims, nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, hourly earnings, average workweek, and whole inventories are coming on 4/6 (although 4/6 is Good Friday and the markets are closed). However, traders or market makers could force either a positive or negative market before the long weekend.

Add this to the mix....

NEW YORK - In yet another sign that U.S. economic growth may be slowing, manufacturing companies reported Monday that business expanded at a lower-than-expected pace in March even as prices surged for raw materials.
The Institute for Supply Management, a trade group of corporate purchasing executives, said its manufacturing index registered 50.9 in March, below the February reading of 52.3 and Wall Street's expectation of 51.
A reading above 50 indicates growth for the sector, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
Despite the sluggish growth, prices appeared to be surging for certain commodities, including aluminum, cobalt, copper, corn, corrugated containers, diesel fuel, natural gas and steel, as demand increased around the world. The ISM's price index shot up to 65.5 in March from 59 in February, causing unease among analysts and investors.

I really like the title of the article, it made it sound like it was a positive thing....seems we are in the mists of slight of hand practices....

It was given by Britain in recent news this morning that there is a time table that we all may want to keep in mind.....48 hours and counting to I RAN....the little pricks keep up their loser propaganda.....wish we would just give them want they want .... a final episode for their dream trip to see Allah....except, Allah won't take them in for killing innocent humans and what ever.....their families will suffer for centuries....nothing but a bunch of mafia related cousins.....

So how is your morning.....???:nuts:

 

[weatherweenie]

Briefing.com:
08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.2. Still shaping up for stocks to open on an upbeat note as futures indications continue to trade above fair value. Aside from falling oil prices acting as a positive catalyst, investors are also taking a bullish cue from rallies in overseas markets. The Nikkei Index and Hang Seng Index closed up 1.3% and 1.0%, respectively, while the major European bourses are up 0.7% on average.

 

[airlift]

The market could break either way. I prefer to play this conservatively because it is harder to make a comeback from a big drop, than to preserve capital and wait for economic imponderables to clear up. Remember the rule of thumb (which I myself forgot exactly how it works --- something like if you lose 50%, you have to make up 100% just to get back to even). Anyway, I am sure you good people understand what I mean. Good luck to all.

 

[vectorman]

I remember the last time Trader Fred gave a buy signal, it didn't last that long.:blink:

Since for now it is free, I think we should add Trader Fred to the Members' Account (no chat) and Members' Account Talk. We can watch his moves and in the Talk Account give reviews.

I see the VIX gapped down to fill the gap from Mar 27-28. So now there is a gap to the up side that may get filled soon, negative for stocks.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=VIX

 

[vectorman]

Looking at the Account talk thread, there's alot of member going into the G. Maybe too many. Looking back at the Apr charts for the last four years, the second trading day in Apr is usually up. Maybe tomorrow will be different and everyone in the G will be right.

So where will the herd ( includes me) run next?