Market Talk / April 15th - April 21st

[Spaf]

The Kingdom of TSP
Sunday Weekly
Early Edition
April, 15, 2007​

Yak, Le Charts, Doodles, Tea Leaves, The Tin Box, The Tally Can and The Barn Yard

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak.....................................SPX continues to trade above 13d MA and near top of bands.

Con-Yak....................................SPX is also at area of resistance. Could go either way!

Jester-Yak.................................Caution high risk area ahead!

Le Charts

Charts courtesy of bigcharts.marketwatch.com​

Doodles:
Stops.........................................................Alert (-1%)....Trail (-2%)
SPX Closed at 1,452.85 up +9.09 for the week....1438.............1424

Dollar.......................................82.17 -0.54 for the week ending...$USD

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at..............63.63 -0.65 for the week ending...NYMEX
Oil Markers................................<60= ok, 60-65= worry, >65= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Yellow.

Tin Box.
TSP (week ending)......G=11.87..F=11.28..C=16.16..S=20.00..I=23.93
....(1 week past)........G=11.86..F=11.31..C=16.06..S=19.82..I=23.61
....(2 week past)........G=11.85..F=11.31..C=15.78..S=19.51..I=23.13
....(3 week past)........G=11.84..F=11.32..C=15.96..S=19.67..I=23.24
....(4 week past)........G=11.83..F=11.34..C=15.41..S=18.95..I=22.30

....(end of 2006)........G=11.71..F=11.14..C=15.69..S=18.76..I=22.22

Tally Can.
Top 10 last 12 mo.......................View attachment 1568
...............................................Courtesy of Fundsurfer's Leader Tally Chart

The Barn Yard
Location....................................On a lilly pad. (100% G-Fund). Capital Preservation.

 

[Spaf]

Earnings, economic data to flood Wall Street
Housing, consumer prices reports due along with variety of financial reports.​

Market update: 2:55 p.m. CT April 15, 2007​

NEW YORK - As anxiety intensifies over rising inflation and the pace of economic growth, Wall Street is hungry for more information. This week, it’ll have a lot to chew on.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18098129/​

 

[weatherweenie]

Briefing.com:
08:33 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.0. Futures trade gets a boost since the last update, now suggesting an even stronger open for stocks. March retail sales rose 0.7% (consensus 0.4%) while more closely-watched sales, ex-autos, rose 0.8% (consensus 0.7%). An upward revision to February sales further suggests consumer spending remains relatively solid. The April NY Empire State Index checked in at 3.8, rebounding from its lowest level since May 2005 but checking in below an expected reading of 10.0.

 

[Birchtree]

We have a 7 year high on the SPX - on our way to 1527.46. Excellent pin action so far today - that'll be new all-time highs on the advance/decline lines. This could end up a triple digit bounce and up day 12 out of 13.

 

[Birchtree]

We need a buy program to come in this afternoon and squeez our friends that are in short positions - pushing the SPX up to 1470.

 

[Spaf]

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
April 16, 2007 Closing​

Yak, Le Charts, Doodles, Tea Leaves, The Tally Can and The Barn Yard

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................Rally, bullish trading above 13d and 50d MA.

Con-Yak...................................Rally overextended; should pause or pullback.

Jester-Yak................................Slow Sto: too far, too fast.

Le Charts

Charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com​

Doodles:
Stops.......................................Alert (-1%)....Trail (-2%)
.....SPX........1468.47 +15.62........1454.............1440

Dollar........................................82.08 -0.09 for the day.

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at...............63.61 -0.02 for the day.
Oil Markers.................................<60= ok, 60-65= worry, >65= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Yellow.

Tally Can
TSP Funds..................................G-fund, F-fund, C-fund, S-fund, I-fund.
Top 10 last 12 mo........................4.0 ......2.0 ......0.0 .....1.0 ......3.0
Today........................................3 made IFT(s), 60% bearish, 40% bullish.
Friday........................................3 made IFT(s), 60% bearish, 40% bullish.

The Barn Yard
Location.....................................100% G

 

[Birchtree]

That 50 point SPX drop on 2/27 is a mere memory - looking for 1527 real soon. You gotta be in to win.

 

[Spaf]

That 50 point SPX drop on 2/27 is a mere memory - looking for 1527 real soon. You gotta be in to win.

On 2/27 I had on my favorite underware, right!....it is a mere memory....:embarrest:

$GOLD is clicking right along...converting to B&H.

TSP has won!...My goal is to keep it in COLA territory! I'll trade with ST, only a mouse click to get in and out!

May through October are generally bad months for the market. But, they sure are great fishing months!.....:nuts:

Gotta get the "Lilly Pad" ready!

Have a good one Mr. Permi-bull!.....

 

[Show-me]

Cpi

If inflation rises the expected amount isn't it still inflationary? :blink: We are just a few points away from the COLA threshold to get a increase.

 

[SkyPilot]

I think anything beyond the "acceptable" level of inflation would be considered inflationary... evidently, some inflation is good? Deflation of any kind is almost always bad, and then there's stagflation...

 

[weatherweenie]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aPpplsTYlRpo&refer=economy

U.S. Consumer Prices Rise 0.6% in March; Core Rate Up 0.1%

By Joe Richter
April 17 (Bloomberg) - A measure of prices paid by U.S. consumers rose less than forecast last month, supporting the Federal Reserve's call that inflation will subside as the economy slows.
The 0.1 percent increase in core consumer prices, which exclude food and energy costs, was the smallest this year and follows a 0.2 percent February gain, the Labor Department said today in Washington. Prices overall rose 0.6 percent in March, led by a jump in fuel costs.
Less inflation may give Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and his colleagues more latitude to lower interest rates to reinvigorate the economy in coming months, economists said. Cheaper clothing and hotel stays and a smaller gain in medical care costs restrained price gains last month, suggesting a slowing economy is starting to help alleviate price pressures.

 

[weatherweenie]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=a692NsfohmCo&refer=news

U.S. March Housing Starts Rise 0.8% to 1.518 Million Rate

By Bob Willis
April 17 (Bloomberg) -- Housing starts in the U.S. unexpectedly rose for a second month in March, bolstering expectations the worst housing slump in 15 years may be easing.
Builders broke ground on new homes at an annual rate of 1.518 million last month, an increase of 0.8 percent from February, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Building permits, a sign of future construction, also rose 0.8 percent.

 

[weatherweenie]

Briefing.com:
08:33 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.3. Futures trade spikes higher following encouraging economic data, now suggesting a slightly higher start for stocks. Total CPI rose 0.6% (consensus 0.6%) in March, the most since April 2006; but the more closely-watched core rate rose just 0.1% (consensus 0.2%). That lowers the year/year rate to 2.5%, easing recently heightened inflation concerns. Housing starts unexpectedly rose 0.8% to 1.518 mln (consensus 1.50 mln), the highest level this year, while building permits also rose 0.8% to 1.544 mln (consensus 1.515 mln). Bonds have strengthened in response to the tame inflation read; the 10-year note is now up 7 ticks to yield 4.70%.

 

[sugarandspice]

Calif. Mortgage Defaults Reach Decade High.

http://cbs5.com/local/local_story_106212816.html

Something Wicked This Way Comes.

 

[Birchtree]

Good - keep them out of the market. We don't want too many participants.

 

[weatherweenie]

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070417/20070417006302.html?.v=1

Intel First-Quarter Revenue $8.9 Billion
Tuesday April 17, 4:15 pm ET

Operating Income $1.7 Billion, EPS 27 Cents

SANTA CLARA, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Intel Corporation today announced first-quarter revenue of $8.9 billion, operating income of $1.7 billion, net income of $1.6 billion and earnings per share (EPS) of 27 cents. The results included the effect of a $300-million reversal of previously accrued taxes that increased EPS by approximately 5 cents.

 

[The_Technician]

They'r watching.....:blink: SO if you don't want them watching yer moves.....don't post'm....

 

[weatherweenie]

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070417/earns_ibm.html?.v=6

IBM Meets 1Q Earnings Forecast Despite Moderate Sales Growth

BOSTON (AP) -- First-quarter earnings at International Business Machines Corp. rose 8 percent and matched Wall Street expectations Tuesday, as a boost from software acquisitions helped overcome only moderate growth overall.

 

[Spaf]

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
April 17, 2007 Closing​

Yak, Le Charts, Doodles, Tea Leaves, The Tally Can and The Barn Yard

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................SPX remains bullish, trading above the 13d and 50d MA.

Con-Yak...................................SPX is still overextended and should pause or pullback. The Stochastic is bullish, overbought, and advances cannot be sustained.

Jester-Yak................................Where's my oxygen mask?

Le Charts

Charts courtesy of www.stockcharts.com​

Doodles:
Stops.......................................Alert (-1%)....Trail (-2%)
.....SPX........1471.48 +3.01.........1457.............1443

Dollar........................................81.80 -0.28 for the day.

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at...............63.10 -0.51 for the day.
Oil Markers.................................<60= ok, 60-65= worry, >65= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Yellow.

Tally Can
TSP Funds..................................G-fund, F-fund, C-fund, S-fund, I-fund.
Top 10 last 12 mo........................3.0 ......1.0 ......0.0 .....2.5 ......3.5
Today........................................2 made IFT(s), 40% bearish, 60% bullish.
Yesterday...................................3 made IFT(s), 60% bearish, 40% bullish.

The Barn Yard
Location.....................................100% G

 

[Birchtree]

Any bets on a 23 point banger for the C fund tomorrow?