Market on Edge

It's becoming more clear that the rioting in Egypt is going to have some measure of effect on the global market. But how much? Friday was pivotal in this regard as the Egyptian army was brought to bear to help quell the developing anarchy. If they were successful, then maybe things would settle down. But that's not what's happening. Quite the opposite actually. And this is going to make traders and some companies nervous as the market does not like uncertainty. The situation is fluid and fears that it could spread (which is what happened as a result of Tunisia) are very real.

It would be easy to get bearish here, especially after Friday's market rout, but there's really no telling exactly how these events will play out and what effect they will have on the markets as they do. It will be very interesting to see if Monday follows Friday's lead.

The Seven Sentinels remain in a sell condition for now, and that may be a good thing.

Here's how we're allocated going into the new week:

2011 Fund Allocation ~ Top 50 Chart 3.jpg
2011 Cash-Stock Exp ~ Top 50 Chart 1.jpg

Not surprisingly, many of the folks holding a high stock allocation fell out of the Top 50 Friday, while many who were in cash rose. That now leaves the Top 50 with an almost 70% cash position.

Total Fund Allocation Chart 3.jpg
2011 Cash-Stock Total Exp Chart 1.jpg

Interestingly, the Total Tracker had only a very modest change in the total cash/stock ratio given Friday's sell-off. If we continue the slide next week I'd expect to see cash levels rise. That's a big "if", but as I mentioned earlier there's lots of uncertainty in the air.
 
CH,

Thanks for these weekly reviews of TSP traders. With 600 folks I think we can get a feel for market sentiment - even though by just being involved they are 'abby normal'.

I think the Seven Sentinals may save me some losses. More importantly, the 1/3 of assets sitting in the G can give me a chance for a single market time move. Next week could be ugly - but that is an opportunity as well.

Happy hunting...
 
Yes, an opportunity. I suppose my biggest concern is whether what's going on Egypt spreads. If it does, that potential opportunity may take more time to find a bottom than many anticipate. But that's all speculation at this point. Futures are down moderately right now, but that's not often a good measure of the next day's trading environment.

Boghie;bt2759 said:
CH,

Thanks for these weekly reviews of TSP traders. With 600 folks I think we can get a feel for market sentiment - even though by just being involved they are 'abby normal'.

I think the Seven Sentinals may save me some losses. More importantly, the 1/3 of assets sitting in the G can give me a chance for a single market time move. Next week could be ugly - but that is an opportunity as well.

Happy hunting...
 
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