Market News

[Braveheart]

Many of our industries that export product are benefiting from our weak dollar. The euro zone folks are complaining their currency is too strong and impedes their competitiveness. But they are coming here using that strength to buy land and other investments.

They are buying Resorts and Homes now with cash. Million Dollar waterfront property is $500,000. I remember the days when people would come from other countries to make money during the summer and return to Ireland or England etc. well now the money is across the sea with all our jobs.

 

[robo]

Stocks Sharply Lower into Final Hour on Financial Sector Worries, Economic Concerns

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is lower into the final hour on losses in my Software longs, Medical longs and Computer longs. I added (IWM)/(QQQQ) hedges and added to my (EEM) short this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long.

The overall tone of the market is very negative as the advance/decline line is substantially lower, every sector is declining and volume is about average. Investor anxiety is high again. Today’s overall market action is very bearish. The VIX is rising 10.5% today to a high 26.0. The ISE Sentiment Index is a very low 77.0 and the total put/call is a high 1.23 again today.

Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running high all day and is currently 1.71. Today’s losses are mainly the result of ongoing worries over the financial sector and concerns that the bubble in commodities will prevent the Fed from acting in a more aggressive way if necessary. Considering how much US manufacturing is outsourced to emerging market countries, I suspect we will begin to see further signs of slowing in the growth rates of those countries over the coming weeks, which should provide the catalyst for a reversal lower in most commodity prices, thus giving the Fed more leeway.

Google(GOOG) is trading relatively well today after comScore clarified its recent data that had pressured GOOG shares. They said that a careful analysis of the data doesn’t support inventors’ concerns that the economy is hurting Google’s biz. They also said, as I pointed out right after the release of the data, that Google’s quality initiatives drove down clicks. I suspect another surge in Google shares is in the offing on any signs of broad market stabilization.

The Baltic Dry Index surged 3.8% today, the biggest gain this month. The JPMorgan Emerging Market Bond Index and Bear Stearns High Yield Index are .7% higher for the week. The Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is 1.3% lower for the week, which is also a positive.

The Fed’s Evans said this afternoon that “fast moving events call for fast moving policy,” which could be an indication of another surprise rate cut before the March 18th meeting. Nikkei futures indicate a -285 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate a -17 open in Germany on Monday. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on short covering, lower long-term rates, Fed rate cut speculation and bargain hunting.

http://hedgefundmgr.blogspot.com/

 

[weatherweenie]

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.5. The current indication suggests a modestly lower start. There is continued speculation regarding the state of the Ambac (ABK) bailout. A CNBC commentator said talks are ongoing, but a deal has not been reached.

 

[weatherweenie]

Troubled bond insurer Ambac Financial Group (ABK) said late Friday it will cut its quarterly dividend to a penny a share and suspend its structured finance business to free up capital.

 

[nnuut]

say "NAFTA"

Say "GATT"!
http://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/gatt_e/gatt_e.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_Free_Trade_Agreement

 

[Silverbird]

Say "GATT"!
http://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/gatt_e/gatt_e.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_Free_Trade_Agreement

Yes, say GATT, U.S. has some of the lowest tariffs in the world. In other words, trading partners already have access to most of our market (big exception Agriculture, which is a maze of fun in access to any world market) *without* use of a free trade agreement.

 

[weatherweenie]

Bond insurer Ambac (ABK 10.13, -1.01) is down 9% after the company announced plans to strengthen the company and support its ratings. Ambac is cutting its quarterly dividend to $0.01 from $0.07, suspending all new structured financial business for the next six months and will be discontinuing business in a number of sectors in the global structured finance market.
Continued concerns over additional write-downs due to the subprime fallout are weighing on the financial sector (-0.7%), which is the main laggard in today's trade, although it is well off its lows. Warren Buffett said it is a "certainty" that the insurance industry will see a decrease in profit margins in 2008, which is also weighing on sentiment.

 

[weatherweenie]

AP
Intel Lowers Gross Profit Margin Outlook
Monday March 3, 10:18 pm ET
By Jordan Robertson, AP Technology Writer Intel Lowers Gross Profit Margin Outlook on Weak Memory-Chip Prices
SAN JOSE, Calif. (AP) -- Intel Corp. lowered its profit forecast for its fiscal first quarter Monday, blaming the shortfall on a steeper-than-expected drop in prices for memory chips.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080303/intel_profit_warning.html

 

[weatherweenie]

[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -8.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -10.2. Futures remain below fair value, indicating a down open, but off their lows. A head member of Dubai International Capital believes Citigroup (C) will need more capital than it has already received.

 

[weatherweenie]

Briefing.com
Fed Governor Mishkin stated he sees significant downside risk to the economy. However, rate cuts and the fiscal stimulus package should improve the odds of avoiding more adverse outcomes. Mishkin also expects unemployment to rise further.

 

[Weather_n_Leather]

I apologize if I do not have all of the correct facts. But I heard (secondhand) that Bernanke said banks should simply decrease the amount of money owned on loans that people have. Did anyone else hear this?

It does not make any sense that a bank (a for-profit company) would decrease the amount owed on a loan and "eat" the difference.

It is beginning to seem that everytime (at least lately) that Bernanke speaks, the markey takes a dive.

 

[weatherweenie]

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +8.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +12.5. Futures indicate a higher start. Costco (COST), BJ Wholesale (BJ), and Big Lots (BIG) all reported earnings results that either met or beat earnings expectations. Continued talk regarding a bailout for Ambac (ABK) flutters across the wires. CNBC reports a deal could be finished today. Additionally, Fannie Mae (FNM) was upgraded by Morgan Stanley to Equal Weight from Underweight. Due at 8:15 AM ET is the February ADP Employment report.

 

[weatherweenie]

[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +5.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.5. Futures slipped on the latest ADP jobs report, but still point to a positive start. The February ADP Employment Report indicated 23,000 jobs were lost, below the expected 18,000 increase. January's revised reading indicated 119,000 jobs were added. Notably, the report measures only nonfarm private payrolls, whereas Friday's jobs report measures public and private nonfarm payrolls.

 

[weatherweenie]

[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -6.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.0. Futures indicate a down open. Several retailers are posting upbeat same-store sales results for February. Swiss banking giant UBS has reportedly sold a portfolio of Alt.-A holdings at distressed prices, which may lead to future write-downs, according to The Wall Street Journal. Additionally, the Bank of England and European Central Bank left benchmark interest rates unchanged.

 

[weatherweenie]

[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -10.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -8.0. A lower start continues to look more likely as futures remain below fair value. Monthly same-store sales continue to flutter across the wires; Wal-Mart (WMT) and Target (TGT) both posted better sales results than expected. Weekly jobless claims came in at 351,000, which is below the consensus forecast that called for 360,000 initial jobless claims. Oil prices continue to rise as crude recorded a new high of $105.97 per barrel.

 

[weatherweenie]

The Federal Reserve says Americans' percentage of equity in their homes has fallen below 50 percent for the first time since 1945.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080306/home_equity.html

 

[James48843]

So here we are:

Oil at a new all time high.

Equity at a new, all time low.

Nothing but bad news on the horizon for the future.

The only "bright spot ", if you can call it that, is that unemployment claims were quite as bad as they thought it was going to be.

More downside ahead. S&P 500 at `1310, and headed lower ahead.

 

[DoughBoy]

Look at the bright side(or the way Birchtree would look at it), now is your chance to buy C fund at Sept. 2006 prices.:worried: I just don't have the guts.

Mar 06, 200816.66 16.09 15.60 14.94 13.25 12.36 12.00 14.77 17.66 22.19

Sep 28, 200615.90 15.32 14.78 13.97 12.45 11.57 11.01 14.74 17.32 20.15

 

[weatherweenie]

Look at the bright side(or the way Birchtree would look at it), now is your chance to buy C fund at Sept. 2006 prices.:worried: I just don't have the guts.

Mar 06, 200816.66 16.09 15.60 14.94 13.25 12.36 12.00 14.77 17.66 22.19

Sep 28, 200615.90 15.32 14.78 13.97 12.45 11.57 11.01 14.74 17.32 20.15

another way to look at it, the G and F funds have outperformed the C and S in that period.

 

[weatherweenie]

TOKYO, March 7 (Reuters) - Japan's Nikkei average fell 2.9 percent to a six-week low on Friday as investors sold exporters such as Sony Corp (6758.T: Quote, Profile, Research) on a stronger yen and fears of a U.S. recession, while silicon wafer maker Sumco Corp (3436.T: Quote, Profile, Research) tumbled after predicting weaker profits.
Banks such as Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (8306.T: Quote, Profile, Research) also took a beating after U.S. mortgage lender Thornburg Mortgage Inc (TMA.N: Quote, Profile, Research) said it failed to meet a $28 million margin call, the latest victim of the global credit crisis.

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCAT14168920080307?rpc=44