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I am looking at stocks today, and thinking that there is weakness I have not been expecting here. Looking now for signals that would tell me it's time to bail out. My antenna is up, and I'm am "leaning forward" - especially after seeing how weak today's market seems to be.

What is the driver today? Anybody hearing anything? Surely something other than that 3.2% economic data...
 
The market has a fear of contagion if radical Islamists from the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood are getting involved to take opportunity of the situation. The Egyptian Army is now being deployed and a few students may pay the ultimate price and then calm will return. Not a propitious time to cut and run in my opinion.
 
The concern is for the Suez Canal. If it is closed, oil may have some issues. Oil's up over $2 on the news.
 
i'd tell you, but you'd censor me again :) j/k

Technical trading, imho. look at the 30 min stick in FAS, big boys selling the news on GDP report hype above the upper BB. Also, we were above the upper BB on the monthly sticks for S&P. So, it was a good place to sell leveraged longs. Also, I kinda think POMO is going to accumulate on the fear/sale price this AM.
 
fedgolfer said:
i'd tell you, but you'd censor me again :) j/k

Technical trading, imho. look at the 30 min stick in FAS, big boys selling the news on GDP report hype above the upper BB. Also, we were above the upper BB on the monthly sticks for S&P. So, it was a good place to sell leveraged longs. Also, I kinda think POMO is going to accumulate on the fear/sale price this AM.
Click to expand...

Also, looking at the MONTHLY S&P sticks, a bullish conitinuation is more likely if we DON'T close above the upper BB. Most closes above the BB lead to the larger reversals.... but, when price closes at or below, the following sticks bounce around but go higher. If bulls can get $tran to close above 5100, what appears to be a bear hammer, will look like a bull hammer. Those monthly closes above the upper BB are obvious signs of euphoria. Bulls don't want euphoria going into Feb... we want sentiment to be on the fence to bearish.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TRAN&p=W&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p61783691523

Oh, also be on your toes because VIX on the weekly is waffling back and forth on the Sstoch on coming out of bearish embedded:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=W&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p71047525475
 
Nonfarm payrolls for January increased by 36,000, which is a far cry from the increase of 148,000 that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com. Private payrolls increased just 50,000, when 163,000 additions had been widely expected. Despite the smaller-than-expected increases, the headline unemployment rate fell sharply to 9.0% from 9.4% in December. The consensus among economists polled by Briefing.com had called for an unemployment rate of 9.5%. It should be noted, though, that the drop in the unemployment rate is mostly due to discouraged workers leaving the labor force.
 
weatherweenie said:
Nonfarm payrolls for January increased by 36,000, which is a far cry from the increase of 148,000 that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com. Private payrolls increased just 50,000, when 163,000 additions had been widely expected. Despite the smaller-than-expected increases, the headline unemployment rate fell sharply to 9.0% from 9.4% in December. The consensus among economists polled by Briefing.com had called for an unemployment rate of 9.5%. It should be noted, though, that the drop in the unemployment rate is mostly due to discouraged workers leaving the labor force.
Click to expand...

And so folks, its not rally "good" news.

but will the market "rally" anyway :confused:
 
This news seems to be diconnected and appears flakey. If thats the case the revisions next week will move mountains.
 
New claims for unemployment benefits fell as expected last week, with the four-week moving average dropping to its lowest level in more than 2-1/2 years, while consumer prices rose in line with expectations.
 
Well,

The Bond Vigilantes are next in line...
Anyone out there think they will accept miniscule rates for downgraded bonds.

And, yes, I know the bonds have not been downgraded - only the forward leaning outlook is negative. We will probably not fall under AAA. But, now there is more risk in the US Treasury bond market.


By the way,

I have been trying to sleuth a hiding spot for May/June as we deal with the debt ceiling. After watching all the equities funds dump - to include the 'I Fund' - it is obvious that I don't want to be there.


So,

Do I want to be in the 'G Fund' - which can be borrowed by the Treasury?

Or, do I want to be in the 'F Fund' - which is undergoing a correction and has significant US Treasury Bond holdings?


Geeze,

Sure wish I had a money market fund.
 
Yes Boghie, wish we had a better hiding place. One reason I'm glad I have outside accounts that do have better hideouts.
 
Initial jobless claims for the week ended April 16 totaled 403,000, which is greater than the 390,000 claims that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com. Week over week, initial claims came down by 13,000.
 
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