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BULLonPARADE said:
Bottom? Uh....no. Not by a long shot. I was just wondering the setiment of this short term rally stretching into the rest of the week. I made up quite a bit of loss, decided not to get greedy and sold waiting to see what happens with the big three next month.
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IMHO, it may already be over. But if we're lucky, tomorrow may bring us
a little cheer before Turkey Day. ;) Wednesday is anyones guess ! :confused:
 
BULLonPARADE said:
Bottom? Uh....no. Not by a long shot. I was just wondering the setiment of this short term rally stretching into the rest of the week. I made up quite a bit of loss, decided not to get greedy and sold waiting to see what happens with the big three next month.
Click to expand...

hmmmm - - - if your IFT is COB tomorrow, you may be in luck; as Asia is rallying very strongly as we speak, so it could carry over - but not for long is my guess. Could be looking at 900 tomorrow, eh?

As for what happens to the big 3 - I honestly think its questionable there will be 3 in a month; and that will follow another poor initial claims report and retail sales of black friday which I think will be very flat - low single digits over last year if anything at all, and possibly negative yr-yr.

If any of the big 3 fails, and that is a distinct possibility with the lame duck congress out of session, there will be significant consequences the likes of which it will be difficult to contemplate the outcome. I'm not advocating (any) bailouts - but from an investment point of view - be prepared to hunker down and be patient.
 
amoeba said:
As for what happens to the big 3 - I honestly think its questionable there will be 3 in a month; and that will follow another poor initial claims report and retail sales of black friday which I think will be very flat - low single digits over last year if anything at all, and possibly negative yr-yr.

If any of the big 3 fails, and that is a distinct possibility with the lame duck congress out of session, there will be significant consequences the likes of which it will be difficult to contemplate the outcome. I'm not advocating (any) bailouts - but from an investment point of view - be prepared to hunker down and be patient.
Click to expand...

I do not think it would be a bad thing if the big 3 filed for bankruptcy. Remember, the CEOs went to congress looking for an unspecified amount-bailout that would allow them to continue to operate under the business as usual paradym. Only one of the CEOs when pressed said that they would have to file for bankruptcy if they didn't get the bailout. That was a clear sign that at least two are not hurting so as to need a bailout.
Now, lets talk about bankruptcy. If they do file for protection from their creditators, three things happen to the company; 1)They are bought out by another car company (this has happened before); 2) They must restructure and get rid of the drain on their finances (Delta and other airlines have been through this, put CEO saleries and jobs are at risk - less of a risk than #1 though); and 3) They go under like Trans World Airlines. The airline industry and the country didn't suffer that much from losing TWA and it allowed smaller leaner companies to find their place and grow.
Here is where bankruptcy will hurt - The small creditors will not get paid and there will be job losses and losses in some small businesses. Most will be protected though as they are subbusiness of the big three. Auto worker may have to restructure their contracts just like Delta pilots did to help the companies meet their goals and some factories will be closed (Ford has already closed their two plants in Atlanta), but this will lead the way to a leaner more efficient industry down the road. Yes, some one industry towns in Democratic districts will be devastated, but, most of those cities will quickly bounce back (One of the towns that was almost destroyed when they lost their auto plant is now the leader in internet wifi and telecommuting consulting - I need to find this town name).

So why is everyone afraid to allow these companies to go into bankruptcy protection? Why do we feel we must throw money at this problem? Citibank may have been to big to fail, but the BIG 3 (tiny 3 - IMO) are not too big to fail just as Delta and TWA(in it's time) was not too big to fail. Even if all 3 go away, there are still cars out there for sale. If we tried to protect USA made TV's like we are doing with the car industry, we would still have 26" color TVs that need TV repairmen to come out regularly (Does anyone still use a TV repairman? Do they even exist?) to fix the made in the USA poc. Just as the electronics industry moved on, the car industry must also to make way for new innovation and job creation.

All the doom and gloom about how the stock market and the US economy will be destroyed if we allow these auto companies to follow the normal course of a failing business and file for bankruptcy is so over played. Those CEOs are just unhappy that they were not Bear Stearns which benefited from being the first (anyone think BS would have been bailed out after AIG?) to ask for a bailout. The market will recover and I beleive the hit will be small in comparison to the financial companies meltdown. Lets pick our battles - the auto industry is a losing one for the US tax payer.
 
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[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -25.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -27.50. Stock futures suggest a sharply lower open. Crude oil prices are down 5.1% to $51.67 per barrel after OPEC decided to take no action during its meeting over the weekend. Black Friday sales rose 3.0% according to ShopperTrak RCT, which was better than some had feared. In deal news, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) has entered a definitive agreement to acquire Mentor Corp (MNT) for $31.00 per share, or $1.07 billion in cash.
 
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -23.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -26.80. Stock futures suggest a lower open. Looking ahead, October construction spending and the November ISM Index are both set for release at 10:00 AM ET. Fed Chairman Bernanke and Dallas Fed President Fisher are set to speak about the economy at 1:45 PM ET. Treasury Secretary Paulson is scheduled to speak about the economy at 3:00 PM ET.
 
Briefing.com: United States Manufacturing in November contracted the most since 1982, according to a national survey. Specifically, the November ISM Index declined to 36.2 from the October reading of 38.9. This was worse than the consensus estimate of 37.0 and represents contraction in U.S. manufacturing due to being below 50. The survey shows continued signs of dropping prices, with the ISM Prices Paid Index declining to 25.5 from October's reading of 37.0.
 
Briefing.com: The National Bureau of Economic Research announced that December 2007 marks the end of a 73 month expansion in the U.S. economy and the beginning of a recession.

Assuming the U.S. is still in a recession, the current decline from peak to trough will surpass the recessions of 2001 (8 months) and 1990/1991 (8 months), marking the longest duration since at least 1981/1982 (16 months).
The U.S. has yet to hit the textbook definition of recession -- two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth -- although it is widely expected that fourth quarter GDP will be negative, as the third quarter was.
 
08:34 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +14.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +19.00. A higher start is expected. General Electric said its sees fourth quarter earnings per share of between $0.50 and $0.52, which is on the low end of its previous range of between $0.50 and $0.65. The consensus estimate is $0.51 per share. GE reaffirmed its plans to maintain a dividend of $1.24 in 2009, which equates to a 8.00% yield at current prices. Shares of GE are up about 1% in premarket trading.
 
08:01 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -11.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -22.80. Stock futures indicate a lower open, with the Nasdaq 100 recently falling to session lows and set to underperform after Research In Motion (RIMM) cut its third quarter revenue and earnings outlook. RIM cited the weaker dollar and lower than estimated unit shipments of existing products. The ADP private nonfarm employment report is due in about 15 minutes. Other releases today include the revised third quarter productivity (8:30 AM ET), ISM Services (10:00 AM ET), weekly energy inventory data (10:35 AM ET) and the the Beige Book (2:00 PM ET)
 
08:32 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -16.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -27.00. Futures fall to session lows following the ADP report that showed a larger-than-expected loss in nonfarm private employment. Just reported, third quarter nonfarm productivity was revised higher to an increase of 1.3% from 1.1%. Economists expected a reading of 0.9%. Unit labor costs were revised downward to 2.8% from 3.6%.
 
08:31 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -15.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -29.30. Stock futures continue to lag fair value. Initial jobless claims for the week ended November 29 totaled 509,000, which was less than the 540,000 claims that were expected. Initial claims for the prior week were revised higher to 530,000. Continuing claims totaled 4.09 million, which exceeded the consensus estimate of 4.03 million claims. Continuing claims were up from 4.00 million in the prior week. The jobless data continue to indicate a weak labor market. Jobless claims are expected to remain elevated as companies battle economic headwinds and work to cut costs. Dow component AT&T (T) announced it plans to cut some 12,000 jobs, or about 4%, from its workforce. AT&T also plans to reduce 2009 capital expenditures from 2008 levels; AT&T spent more than $14 billion in capital expenditures through the first three quarters of 2008. Fellow Dow component DuPont (DD) also indicated this morning it will reduce capital spending by 10% to 20% in 2009. The company is forecasting a fourth quarter loss between $0.20 and $0.30 per share, but expects fiscal 2009 earnings to range from $2.25 to $2.75 per share. The consensus 2009 estimate calls for $2.80 per share.
 
08:31 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -18.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -21.00. Stock futures continue to suggest the stock market will open with a loss. Pessimism has been underpinned by the latest jobless data. November nonfarm payrolls fell 533,000, which was a steeper decline than the drop of 335,000 that was widely expected. October nonfarm payrolls were revised higher to reflect a drop of 320,000. November manufacturing payrolls declined 85,000, coming short of the 100,000 decline that was widely expected. October manufacturing payrolls were revised higher to reflect a drop of 104,000. The November unemployment rate now stands at 6.7%. Economists expected the unemployment rate to come in at 6.8%. The unemployment rate for October stands at 6.5%.
 
08:36 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.80. Stocks continue pointing toward a lower open after McDonald's (MCD) reported it generated $0.87 per share in fourth quarter earnings, topping the consensus forecast of $0.83 per share. The quick service restaurant's stock is trading more than 1% lower at $57.30 per share ahead of the opening bell. In overseas action, the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index closed a modest 0.1% higher. Most markets throughout the region were closed for holidays, including China will reopen next Monday (Feb. 2). In Japan, the Nikkei closed 0.8% lower. Exporters remained under pressure as the yen strengthened and reports said Toyota (TM) 2009 sales are likely to be 7% lower and global production will be down 20%. A separate report said that Nissan (NSANY) is likely to post its first operating loss in 14 years. Toyota shares fell 2.0% and Nissan shares dropped 3.2%. Komatsu, which competes with world Caterpillar (CAT), was under pressure after slashing its forecast Friday. The company was mentioned positively by Barron's, however. Financial stocks are among some of the strongest performers in European trading. France's BNP Paribas and Societe Generale are driving the CAC 1.1% higher. HSBC (HSB) and Barclays (BCS) are helping drive Britain's FTSE 1.3% higher. Barclays stated it will report its latest quarterly results early to help calm investor concern regarding the bank's financial health. In Germany, Allianz and Muenchener Rue are pushing the DAX up 0.5%.
 
09:02 am : S&P futures vs fair value: flat. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.00. The major U.S. indices are on track to open near the unchanged mark, according to stock futures. Rohm & Haas (ROH) has been advised that Dow Chemical (DOW) does not intend to close the pending acquisition of ROH on or before tomorrow. Rohm & Haas has responded by saying it will pursue alternatives to protect its shareholders' interests. Standard & Poor's indicated that General Electric's (GE) AAA credit rating is unaffected by the company's fourth quarter earnings. S&P already assigned the company a negative outlook.
 
09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: flat. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.50. Stocks are on track for a for a flat-to-upward start. Early weakness in gold and oil prices are weighing on the CRB Commodity Index. Oil is currently 1% lower at $45.30 per barrel in late electronic trading. Gold is also down 1%. It recently traded at $899.20 per ounce. In turn, the CRB Commoditiy Index is off by 0.3%. The November S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index came in at 154.6, which is lower than the downwardly revised prior reading of 158.1. The S&P/CaseShiller Composite 20 City Index fell 18.2% year-over-year, which is close to the expected decline of 18.4%. It declined 18.1% in the prior reading.
 
08:01 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -12.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -20.80. Earnings announcements and overall news flow are relatively light ahead of the opening bell, but stock futures are pointing decidedly toward a lower start. Humana (HUM) earned $1.03 per share during the fourth quarter. The earnings results were helped by gains in other-than-temporary investments, but were down from the $1.43 per share earned in the prior year. Revenue increased some $18% year-over-year to $7.49 billion. Humana expects to earn between $1.10 and $1.20 per share for the first quarter. The outlook exceeds the $0.95 per share consensus first quarter estimate. Humana reaffirmed its full-year outlook, stating it expects earnings to range from $5.90 to $6.10 per share. The current consensus full-year estimate calls for earnings of $5.92 per share. Shares of HUM are down less than 1% to $37.79 per share in premarket trading.
 
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