Market News

[James48843]

Rebound about out of energy. Opening gain slacking off a bit now.

Can we PLEASE have things settle down a bit?

Those 1,000 point swings make me seasick.

 

[weatherweenie]

08:32 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -25.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -29.80. Stock futures fall to fresh session lows and then extend their losses as retail sales and an inflation readings hits the wires. September retail sales fell 1.2% month-over-month (consensus -0.7%), marking the third consecutive decline as consumers curtail spending in the face of economic headwinds. Excluding autos, retail sales fell 0.6% (consensus -0.2%). The September Producer Price Index fell 0.4% month-over-month (consensus -0.4%), benefiting from easing commodity prices. Excluding food and energy, PPI rose 0.4% month-over-month (consensus +0.2%). Compared to last year, PPI is up 8.7% (consensus +8.6%) and PPI excluding food and energy is up 4.0% (consensus +3.8%). Crude Prices are down 4.4% to $75.17 per barrel, with prices hitting their lowest level since August 2007. Dollar Libor -- the rate which banks charge each other for short-term dollar loans -- fell modestly across all terms for the second straight day, indicating that credit markets are slowly improving.

 

[James48843]

Gosh it's an ugly day.

Here is the S&P500.

I saw it at lunchtime today.


This is what the S&P500 said to me.....

​

 

[weatherweenie]

08:01 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -18.80. Futures currently indicate a downward start to the trading session. Nokia (NOK) posted in-line earnings per share results for its fiscal third quarter. The global leader in handsets sees a sequential volume increase in the fourth quarter and expects its market share will be flat to slightly up. Merrill Lynch (MER) posted a loss of $5.56 per share in the third quarter. The firm incurred $5.7 billion in net write-downs. Citigroup (C) reported a loss of $0.60 per share. Revenue was down a sharp 23% year-over-year and the bank was hit with $4.4 billion in pretax write-downs. The Swiss government and central bank will inject the equivalent of $5.3 billion of capital into UBS (UBS) and assume $60 billion of risky assets from the financial giant, according to The Wall Street Journal.

 

[weatherweenie]

09:02 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +15.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.50. The tone in premarket trading has improved. Stock futures in both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 have a lead over fair value. Overnight U.S. dollar LIBOR rates fell more than 20 basis points to a bit below 1.94%. The one-month rate fell 8 basis points to 4.28%. Net long-term Treasury International Capital (TIC) flows for August totaled $14.0 billion, which is below the $30.0 billion that was widely expected.

 

[weatherweenie]

Philly Fed Oct factory activity crashes
Thursday October 16, 10:42 am ET NEW YORK (Reuters) - Mid-Atlantic regional factory activity crashed to an 18-year low in October, a survey showed on Thursday, adding to the grim toll the last month of credit turmoil has taken on the economy.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/081016/business_us_usa_economy_phillyfed.html

 

[weatherweenie]

08:32 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -20.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -25.50. Stocks continue to move toward a lower open despite encouraging comments from revered investor Warren Buffett. He stated in a New York Times article he is buying U.S. stocks for his personal portfolio. His rule for buying is to be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. Honeywell's (HON) latest earnings results bested the consensus estimate, but the company's earnings outlook was a bit short of the consensus forecast. In the latest batch of economic data, housing starts for September totaled 817,000. The consensus called for 872,000 starts, which is also the amount from the prior month. Building permts totaled 786,000, which is down from the 857,000 in the prior month and below the 840,000 that was anticipated.

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

From stocktiming.com

This morning we will address two issues: Warren Buffett, and "Is the market trying to establish a short term bottom?
The first is the media hype on what Warren Buffett said about "buying stocks now".
Here are the excerpts of what the media is saying and posting:
"Warren Buffett said he's buying U.S. stocks and, if prices stay attractive, his personal investments, as distinct from his stake in Berkshire Hathaway Inc., will soon be wholly in American equities." ... "Exaggerated concern about the long-term prosperity of the many sound U.S. companies is foolish, and most will probably be setting profit records in years to come, Buffett said."
What very few media outlets are including in his statements is the following:
"Most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now." He also stated that he had little idea about the short term market direction.
#1: Don't get all excited by the media hype surrounding Buffett's comments. His time frame for being right is extremely long ... 5, 10, or 20 years from now. That is not a time frame that most investors can deal with. Twenty years from now, Buffett and I will most likely not be alive ... maybe I will, but I'd be 81 years old then.
#2: The Bear Market is not over ... we are in the beginning stages of a recession that will go on for months, if not for a year or more. The stock market typically starts its early turn around 3 to 4 months before the market finally bottoms out ... we are not there yet.

 

[Silverbird]

Short-Term Libors Collapse as Money Markets Thaw
By Reuters | 17 Oct 2008 | 09:07 AM ET
http://www.cnbc.com/id/27236827#
http://www.cnbc.com/id/27236827#Interbank lending rates for dollars, euros and sterling fell on Friday, with notably sharp declines in short-term rates suggesting central banks' liquidity provisions are beginning to thaw frozen money markets.
Overnight London interbank offered rates for euro funds fell below the European Central Bank's target, overnight sterling Libor plunged almost half a percentage point and overnight dollar rates was fixed close to the Federal Reserve's target.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/27236827
[woot!?]

 

[JOVARN]

I wrote this and sent it to fedsmith.com and they posted it.

TSP holders get the shaft again. The buy low and sell high practice in a bear market has all but been taken away by the TSP board; RESULTING in thousands of federal employees loosing much of their retirement savings. With the limited trades now in place, TSP participants must now wait years to regain some of the losses they have experienced in this market crash, while others in the financial world get rich using the buy low and sell the bear market rally’s investing principle. The only way to make money in a bear market is to buy low and sell high, but the TSP board in their knee jerk response to the frequent traders have now made it impossible for all tsp participants to make money in this bear market. TSP frequent traders found it difficult to make money in the good times; but regularly beat the averages by wide margins. Savvy investors wait a life time for opportunities like this, but the TSP board has taken that option away from its participants. Now because of the TSP board decision to limit trades all TSP participants are getting the shaft and many have locked in losses at the worst possible time by moving into the G fund very late in this crash. Many have lost upward of 50% of their retirement holdings. The frequent traders of the TSP community have lost considerably less then the average TSP participants because they continue to trade with in the trading parameters set up by the TSP board. Those that lost money in this bear market will have to wait years to salvage a small portion of their funds. The new trading limits IMPOSED and set up by the TSP board makes it almost impossible to buy low and sell the rally’s, yet that is the only way you can hope to make up your losses in a bear market. The TSP board not only screwed the frequent traders but the rest of the TSP participants as well, with their knee jerk response to the frequent traders and by imposing trading limits across the board. I think there should be a congressional investigation into the TSP board’s decision to limit trades based on the timing of the boards’ actions and the market crash. I bet my TSP account that TSP board members have not imposed trading limits on their accounts. TSP BOARD SHAME ON YOU

 

[Gumby]

I wrote this and sent it to fedsmith.com and they posted it.

TSP holders get the shaft again. The buy low and sell high practice in a bear market has all but been taken away by the TSP board; RESULTING in thousands of federal employees loosing much of their retirement savings. With the limited trades now in place, TSP participants must now wait years to regain some of the losses they have experienced in this market crash, while others in the financial world get rich using the buy low and sell the bear market rally’s investing principle. The only way to make money in a bear market is to buy low and sell high, but the TSP board in their knee jerk response to the frequent traders have now made it impossible for all tsp participants to make money in this bear market. TSP frequent traders found it difficult to make money in the good times; but regularly beat the averages by wide margins. Savvy investors wait a life time for opportunities like this, but the TSP board has taken that option away from its participants. Now because of the TSP board decision to limit trades all TSP participants are getting the shaft and many have locked in losses at the worst possible time by moving into the G fund very late in this crash. Many have lost upward of 50% of their retirement holdings. The frequent traders of the TSP community have lost considerably less then the average TSP participants because they continue to trade with in the trading parameters set up by the TSP board. Those that lost money in this bear market will have to wait years to salvage a small portion of their funds. The new trading limits IMPOSED and set up by the TSP board makes it almost impossible to buy low and sell the rally’s, yet that is the only way you can hope to make up your losses in a bear market. The TSP board not only screwed the frequent traders but the rest of the TSP participants as well, with their knee jerk response to the frequent traders and by imposing trading limits across the board. I think there should be a congressional investigation into the TSP board’s decision to limit trades based on the timing of the boards’ actions and the market crash. I bet my TSP account that TSP board members have not imposed trading limits on their accounts. TSP BOARD SHAME ON YOU

Good Article. I hope you get a reply from Greg Long.:nuts:

 

[CountryBoy]

I wrote this and sent it to fedsmith.com and they posted it.

TSP holders get the shaft again. The buy low and sell high practice in a bear market has all but been taken away by the TSP board; RESULTING in thousands of federal employees loosing much of their retirement savings. With the limited trades now in place, TSP participants must now wait years to regain some of the losses they have experienced in this market crash, while others in the financial world get rich using the buy low and sell the bear market rally’s investing principle. The only way to make money in a bear market is to buy low and sell high, but the TSP board in their knee jerk response to the frequent traders have now made it impossible for all tsp participants to make money in this bear market. TSP frequent traders found it difficult to make money in the good times; but regularly beat the averages by wide margins. Savvy investors wait a life time for opportunities like this, but the TSP board has taken that option away from its participants. Now because of the TSP board decision to limit trades all TSP participants are getting the shaft and many have locked in losses at the worst possible time by moving into the G fund very late in this crash. Many have lost upward of 50% of their retirement holdings. The frequent traders of the TSP community have lost considerably less then the average TSP participants because they continue to trade with in the trading parameters set up by the TSP board. Those that lost money in this bear market will have to wait years to salvage a small portion of their funds. The new trading limits IMPOSED and set up by the TSP board makes it almost impossible to buy low and sell the rally’s, yet that is the only way you can hope to make up your losses in a bear market. The TSP board not only screwed the frequent traders but the rest of the TSP participants as well, with their knee jerk response to the frequent traders and by imposing trading limits across the board. I think there should be a congressional investigation into the TSP board’s decision to limit trades based on the timing of the boards’ actions and the market crash. I bet my TSP account that TSP board members have not imposed trading limits on their accounts. TSP BOARD SHAME ON YOU

Very well written. I've seen several comments written on various Fedsmith artilces, that I know have come from folks here. Tom's name has even been mentioned alonfg with TSPTalk. And I'm curious if Ralph Smith is an CSRS fed retiree, because he sure has drunk the Long/barclay's B&H Kool-aid and from his POV, I don't think he's ever had any skin in the TSP Plan.

CB

 

[weatherweenie]

Foreclosure filings surge 71 percent in third quarter as mortgage crisis worsens WASHINGTON (AP) -- The number of homeowners ensnared in the foreclosure crisis grew by more than 70 percent in the third quarter of this year compared with the same period in 2007, according to data released Thursday.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081023/foreclosure_rates.html

 

[weatherweenie]

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -12.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -14.00. Stock futures take a dip and indicate a downward start for the session. Amazon.com (AMZN) posts better-than-expected earnings per share results for its third quarter, but disappoints investors with a tepid fourth quarter revenue forecast. Meanwhile, biotech major Amgen (AMGN) topped the consensus earnings estimate, and issued upside guidance for 2008. Materials company Potash (POT) and drug maker and marketer Eli Lilly (LLY) both announced positive earnings per share surprises and guided in-line with expectations. Dow Chemical (DOW) also topped earnings expectations for the third quarter, but did not offer an outlook. In economic news, Bloomberg.com reports Sweden cut its key interest rate by a half point for the second time in as many weeks. The move comes as global central banks continue working to restore credit and financial markets, and takes the bank's repo rate to 3.75%.

 

[weatherweenie]

08:31 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -6.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -11.30. Several widely held companies continue to post better-than-expected third quarter earnings results, including Altria Group (MO), Bristol-Myers (BMY), and UPS (UPS), but fear of a recession has market participants focusing on the latest unemployment data for clues regarding the health of the economy. Initial jobless claims for the week ending October 18 totaled 478,000, which exceeded the consensus estimate of 468,000 claims. Initial claims were up 15,000 from the prior week. The initial claims data follows word from The Wall Street Journal that Goldman Sachs (GS) will be cutting 10% of its workforce and word from Dow Jones that General Motors (GM) will also be making layoffs. Futures have held steady as traders react to the data, but continue to indicate stocks will open the session to the downside.

 

[weatherweenie]

Microsoft profits up, but forecast is cut

Puget Sound Business Journal (Seattle)


http://seattle.bizjournals.com/seattle/stories/2008/10/20/daily28.html?ana=yfcpc

 

[weatherweenie]

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -52.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -75.50. The tone in premarket action is decidedly negative. Dow and S&P futures are currently limit down, which is a mechanism to prevent stock futures from falling any further until the market opens. London's FTSE has shed more than 7% Friday, while France's CAC and Germany's DAX have dropped in excess of 8%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is also down more than 8%, and Japan's Nikkei is down more than 9%. The dollar index is currently up nearly 1.4% to a two year high, reflecting the greenback's appreciation against a basket of major currencies. Oil futures are currently down 7% to roughly $63 per barrel. In corporate news, Microsoft (MSFT) posted upbeat revenue and earnings per share results, but issued downsided guidance. Fortune Brands (FO) announced better-than-expected earnings per share results despite a drop in revenue.

 

[weatherweenie]

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -52.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -75.50. Stock futures are limit down. Reuters has reported General Electric (GE) plans to use the Fed's commercial paper lending facility. The Wall Street Journal indicated AIG (AIG) has tapped the Fed for additional funds. According to the article, as of this last Wednesday AIG has borrowed $90.3 billion, which exceeds the original $85 billion rescue plan.

 

[Silverbird]

PNC has puchased National City, says CNBC, sorry I don't have more.

 

[weatherweenie]

08:06 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -34.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -41.00. Stock futures suggest a sharply lower open as overseas markets tumble. Japan's Nikkei fell 6.4% to its lowest closing level since 1982 as traders worried about the strengthening yen (). The recent sharp rally in the yen prompted the G-7 to issue a statement warning about the "excessive gains" in the currency. Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped 12.7%. South Korea cut its benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points to 4.25%. In Europe, the Eurostoxx 600 is down 4.3%, hitting a fresh multi-year low this session. In corporate news, the Financial Times reports Goldman Sachs (GS) called Citigroup (C) last month to discuss a merger, which was quickly rejected by Citigroup. Humana (HUM) reported a drop in quarterly earnings, although it topped expectations. Verizon (VZ) reported in-line earnings.