Market News

[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +11.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +14.00. Stock futures continue to trade in front of fair value. Nonfarm payrolls fell 159,000 in September, marking the ninth consecutive month of declines. Economists, on average, were looking for a loss of 105,000 jobs. The unemployment rate continues to stand at 6.1%. The change in nonfarm payrolls for August was revised upward to reflect a loss of 73,000 jobs. The unemployment rate of 6.1% remains the highest since 2003. Though the data are rather disappointing, traders are keeping a watchful eye on the House of Representatives vote for the the asset purchase plan.
 
One guest on CNBC said they expect 200k job losses in the next two reporting periods. It will get worse, the Fed will cut, ECB will cut, BOE will cut.
 
Traders Just Plain Confused
Oct 3 9:30 AM
CNBC

Want graphic evidence of how confused traders are? Stock futures rallied for a couple minutes on the Wells Fargo/Wachovia deal,then quickly dropped. Futures dropped again as non-farm payrolls came out below expectations, then rallied back a few minutes later.

As poor as the jobs report was, traders were fearing worse. Plus, bulls are arguing that the Wells/Wachovia deal is a positive; add it to likely House passage and you have the makings of a modestly positive opening.
But there are so many cross-currents it is difficult to discern any pattern other than confusion.....
http://www.cnbc.com/id/27007387
[do NOT feel bad if are confused too!]
 
2:00 pm : A knee-jerk selling effort has followed the announcement that the House of Representatives approved the ammended asset purchase plan. That reaction erased more than 300 points from the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The Dow actually fell all the way into the red, though only for a moment. It quickly pulled back into positive ground.
The concerted selling effort follows the build up that led up to the House vote. That build up had each of the major indices sporting gains of at least 3.0%.
Advancing issues in the S&P 500 are now relatively in balance with declining stocks. There had been an overwhelmingly bullish tone early on.DJ30 +89.04 NASDAQ +20.94 SP500 +13.15 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1382/1.50 bln/1334 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1919/795 mln/1179
 
Traders Just Plain Confused
Oct 3 9:30 AM
CNBC
Want graphic evidence of how confused traders are? Stock futures rallied for a couple minutes on the Wells Fargo/Wachovia deal,then quickly dropped. Futures dropped again as non-farm payrolls came out below expectations, then rallied back a few minutes later.

As poor as the jobs report was, traders were fearing worse. Plus, bulls are arguing that the Wells/Wachovia deal is a positive; add it to likely House passage and you have the makings of a modestly positive opening.
But there are so many cross-currents it is difficult to discern any pattern other than confusion..... http://www.cnbc.com/id/27007387
[do NOT feel bad if are confused too!]

I'm ALWAYS confused, but I don't think I'll waste any time worrying about the Wells Fargo/Wachovia deal. Mr. Buffett owns a big piece of Wells Fargo and I heard him say today that it was the most stable and best managed bank among all the rest.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/27011627
 
07:59 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.50. Futures are modestly higher. Credit markets remain tight, with dollar Libor climbing across shorter terms, including the overnight rate rising 157 basis points to 3.94%. Bank of America (BAC) preannounced third quarter earnings of $0.15, which fell short of the consensus estimate of $0.66 due to increases in provision expense. To shore up its capital position due to the "uncertain environment", BofA is cutting its quarterly dividend by 50% to $0.32 and plans to sell $10 billion in common stock. In overseas news, Australia cut its benchmark interest rate by 100 basis points, which was twice as large as expected, Reuters reports. Another European financial institution needed to be bailed out, with Iceland taking over its second largest bank, the Wall Street Journal reports.
 
08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -7.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -12.80. Futures go on a sharp retreat, and now suggest a negative start, due to disappointment that a Fed announcement on its Term Auction Facility did not include more measures. Crude oil prices are rallying, up 3.5% to $90.90 per barrel as the dollar falls 0.8%. Looking ahead, Minneapolis Fed President Stern will speak on financial shock at 11:00 AM ET and Fed Chairman Bernanke will speak about the economy at 1:15 PM ET. European Central Bank President Trichet will give the keynote address at the World Policy Conference at 11:20 ET. The minutes from the Sept. 16 FOMC meeting will be released at 2:00 PM ET, followed by consumer credit for August at 2:00 PM ET. After the close, Dow component Alcoa (AA) kicks off third quarter reporting season.
 
09:02 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +7.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: flat. Futures rebound on news that the Federal Reserve created a commercial paper funding facility, where it will buy three-month commercial paper. It is meant to provide a liquidity backstop, as the commercial paper market has been strained.
 
Down we go some more. S&P now showing down 0.68%.

Now the Fed is spending some of that money. More money down the tubes.

When will Paulson figure it out?

Two things Mr. Paulson- to fix the mess. No new legislation needed, and nothing more than rules you can have the SEC issue:

First- #1 . No more naked shorting on anything. If you want to short, you have to actually borrow the stocks FIRST- before placing the short order.

If you are caught "selling short" without being in possesion of the stocks you are shorting, first offense- you are banned from trading for 90 days and fined lightly (Say, five times the profit or loss you made on the change in value of the stocks you didn't have to sell short).

Second offense. You are banned from trading for a year and fined heavily. (Say the underlying value of those stocks.)

Third offense- banned for life and accounts siezed.

If you are going to "short" the market, then do it legitimately, with shares in hand, PRIOR to making the short order.

And then #2: Reinstate the Uptick Rule.

No short selling until you get an uptick in the price.


Do those two things, Mr, Paulson, and the markets will calm down. It doesn't cost you a dime. Both of those rules were in place at some time in the recent past. Both of those rules were removed as part of the "W" deregulation of the markets. Both should be put back in place for the good of stability.

Do those two things- and markets will be much better.

Please Mr. Paulson and Mr. Cox:

Treasury and SEC:

Before you do anything else, spend any more billions, just do those two little things. Please???
 
Have a question for foks here in the know. When someone "shorts" and borrows stocks. Just who exactly is he borrowing them from. I can't see anyone "Loaning" out there stocks just so they can loose money????
 
Have a question for foks here in the know. When someone "shorts" and borrows stocks. Just who exactly is he borrowing them from. I can't see anyone "Loaning" out there stocks just so they can loose money????

Generally the broker holds the stock certificates "In-House" for investors....so a person that wants to short just borrows the stock from the broker (Scottrade, Wachovia, etc.).
 
Are they stocks the broker truly owns, or are they ones he is holding for his customers. I just can't see someone loaning out stocks that they own, and not selling them knowing that prices are falling. It just seems like a scam all round.
 
Are they stocks the broker truly owns, or are they ones he is holding for his customers. I just can't see someone loaning out stocks that they own, and not selling them knowing that prices are falling. It just seems like a scam all round.


NO- they don't have to be stocks that the broker owns.

If YOU hold any stocks- say, you own 100 shares of IBM, then the broker holds YOUR actual stock certificates.

And, anytime he likes, he can "lend" your share certificates to someone else.

Now, should the price go up, the person whom he lent them too is on the hook. If the price goes down, the person whom he lent them to makes money, because he sells YOUR shares at a profit, then is supposed to rebuy shares at a lower cost, and give you your certificates back.

How do you prevent the broker from offering up YOUR shares to someone else in a short-situation? Place a "SELL" order at a higher price --like, if it's a $10 stock, place a sell order, good till cancelled, for $25, and you'll lock up your shares . He can't borrow them if there is a valid sell order on them.

Of course, if you hit $25, then they are sold.

But if there is not sell order in place, then the broker is free to loan them out to someone else.

the problem is when someone does a "short" order, and doesn't actually own the stock, or have the stock in their possesion at the time. Naked short selling, that's called. And if they fail to deliver the short shares they are supposed to - then the price of the stock can get hammered.

There are even stories now floating around of fake stock certificates-conterfieting- short shares being more than 100% of the entire outstanding stock.

I'll see if I can track one of those stories down -= and post it here.
 
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