Mapper's Account Talk

[Handballer]

Can I come out from hiding now? :worried:

Has the storm passed? After taking a hammering on my long positions maybe the sun is coming out...I continue to hold C,S,I AND a bunch of underwater TNA. On top of that the timing of my FB purchase was a mistake. I still think it has mid/long term value but obviously could have got a better price.

To add to my recent financial malfeasance I took in a new rescue/foster Husky, surrendered following a seizure and needing a good deal of deferred vet work (vaccinations, neutering, general checkups); sweet 4yr old boy but definitely an unexpected expense. AND, I'm buying a car . Definitely not the best couple of weeks for my accounts!

On the other side, I still have a good stock of cash that I raised at higher prices so I'm now thinking about ways to deploy that cash. I finally got a chance to make a big AFL purchase yesterday, that is intended to be a long-term holding.

You bought the Oakland Raiders?

 

[Sensei]

You bought the Oakland Raiders?

Back in the day, you could actually buy stock in the Packers, though, couldn't you? Has that changed? (I haven't followed football since Steve Young retired. :embarrest

 

[Mapper]

Well I've been spending more time here recently so time to drag my own thread back up from the dead.

Of the stocks I watch I'm seeing the best in breed are getting bought but only modestly. If that continues and trickles down to the less desirable issues then I'll take it more seriously. These are mostly dividend paying stocks, and as coolhand has been noting, with the recent price drops folks are seeing an opportunity to get into some of those stocks...that people are buying them at all is certainly bullish for the longer time frame. I'm also seeing the transports are struggling which is a red flag for me right now, and the more immediate term, as they have been leading well recently.

I'm currently in G and going to stay there for today. I will say that if I was in equities I would not be jumping out. We could easily be at a point for a significant bounce as many have noted. I would like to take a chance on this market but for personal reasons I'm in cautious mode with my finances for a bit. If a have to choose a side I feel the edge is slightly in favor of the bears right now.

I also have a large tza position that I'm holding at the moment so that is definitely influencing my bearishness a bit.

 

[Mapper]

I initiated a short ETF position (tza) in early July. The markets did not move in my favor but knowing that things rarely move in a straight line I continue to add to that position to reduce my cost basis. For a long time I was just digging myself deeper into the hole but now...incredibly, I'm $0.10 away from breaking even on that position!!!

Yep that was 3 ! for simply breaking even. I will continue to let, the now very sizeable basket of shares, ride until a see the market start to turn around.

I'm mentioning this because in the last few years I've slowly learned the importance of not acting rashly and dollar cost averaging (DCA) or laddering into positions. Lots of folks will say...you could be deeper in the hole if the markets kept going up, and, think of the gains you missed to upside...and they are right, I did miss out on some sweet bullish action. However the fact remains that the markets move up and down and learning to be patient and having some conviction with your positions can be good. Take it for what it's worth.

 

[Mapper]

Don't know what it is but I have a suspicion today is going to be solid to the plus side, nothing but my gut to back up that feeling. We're coiled for something and the most likely scenario in my mind is at least a one day bullish blindsider. Whether or not that sticks, who knows? I'm not selling my shorts, maybe a few, but at the open I think I'm going to start to add longs in small increments to take advantage of any bullish action.

 

[Frixxxx]

Don't know what it is but I have a suspicion today is going to be solid to the plus side, nothing but my gut to back up that feeling. We're coiled for something and the most likely scenario in my mind is at least a one day bullish blindsider. Whether or not that sticks, who knows? I'm not selling my shorts, maybe a few, but at the open I think I'm going to start to add longs in small increments to take advantage of any bullish action.

I'm not sure there is enough in today's market to give it enough steam to stay to the up side....This is the week of home sales and CPI.....As I've come to recognize, a Tigger market~~Bouncy, bouncy, bouncy!

 

[Frixxxx]

I'm not sure there is enough in today's market to give it enough steam to stay to the up side....This is the week of home sales and CPI.....As I've come to recognize, a Tigger market~~Bouncy, bouncy, bouncy!

And of course, as soon as I say something, the market makes me a liar.

 

[Mapper]

And of course, as soon as I say something, the market makes me a liar.

If there is one guarantee, it's that the market will continuously make fools of us. I didn't follow through on my plan because I saw the same weakness and now my account has suffered. Is this the real deal or a fakeout? My watchlist is still showing a fair number of red issues so I'm not going to capitulate just yet.

 

[Mapper]

Ooops meant to make a comment pre-deadline but missed the deadline. In any case I'm holding in G and holding onto all my shorts using the seeming inability of the Transports to have a follow-trough positive day as my primary deciding factor. Advance/Decline is favoring decliners 3 to 1 as of this writing. Of the stocks I like to keep an eye right now only MSFT and JCI are putting in positive numbers right now. If a person was interested in owning McDonalds (MCD) I think your getting pretty close to a decent entry opportunity, I might buy more soon...then again I'm no analyst and I'm primarily looking at movements over the last year and I consider it a "safe" stock for long term holding.

Overall continued gloomy short term outlook in my opinion. Unless something changes I'm looking at S&P 1630 or even 1600 as marks to watch for. Real curious what Sentiment Survey will return this week....we seem to be an interesting juncture.

Good luck and remember we often feel like were drowning even though it's a half inch of water. I say this because I have a good friend going through some rather trying times right now and he's being very hard on himself...it's turning to a viscous cycle to live and to watch.

 

[Mapper]

Boy, character sure changed in the time I spent writing that post...this is why I don't like to open my mouth :blink:

 

[Birchtree]

JCI (Johnson Controls) is one of my stocks making up my sacrificial lamb chop account - here are my DCA purchases: $26.97, $23.77, $31.69, $30.83, $32.97, $37.41. I think we are at around $40 and I'll be buying more soon. If the folks keep buying new cars JCI will continue to do well.

 

[Mapper]

I bought JCI in the low 20's rode it up to $40, sold it and repurchased again (more shares) in my Roth at $32 and set it up on a DRIP. Not sure when I'll make another bulk purchase but have decided it's one of those stocks I'll hang on to. I spent my college years delivering pizza to board meetings there in Milwaukee...I grew up in WI. JCI is a global company but it grew up there too. They make many great products, are very forward looking and garner tremendous support and respect within the local community....that's all I really need to know to make me want to be a long term owner. The business extends far beyond cars now too. I feel their efforts in building efficiency will reap tremendous reward going forward.

 

[remark]

"I spent my college years delivering pizza to board meetings there in Milwaukee...I grew up in WI."


Mapper,

Are you a graduate from UWM? UWL is my Alma Mater. I know I need not to ask if you are a die hard Packer Backer/Cheesehead - right? Haven't met many through the years after departing the midwest. Good luck investing!!!

 

[Mapper]

"I spent my college years delivering pizza to board meetings there in Milwaukee...I grew up in WI."


Mapper,

Are you a graduate from UWM? UWL is my Alma Mater. I know I need not to ask if you are a die hard Packer Backer/Cheesehead - right? Haven't met many through the years after departing the midwest. Good luck investing!!!

You nailed it. Been out west since 2005 though, grad school in Oregon. I'm not a huge football fan overall but I'm with The Pack all the way. Thanks, and good luck to you too.

 

[Mapper]

Let the rollercoaster ride begin...up she goes, where she stops no one knows!

 

[Mapper]

Extremely tempted to jump in but my gut is telling me to sit on my hands...following my gut, for now

 

[Mapper]

still sticking with my gut and sitting G fund for now. I guess I missed a little rally but timing that little blip would have been futile. With the follow though today tomorrow will be real interesting. I will not be surprised if we move down further.

 

[Mapper]

Heading out of town for a few days. Keeping everything nice and stowed in the G arage

 

[Mapper]

News doesn't drive markets but does affect people's attitudes and willingness to take risks. I'm in the airport and I'll I hear blaring around me is Assad, Syria and some blah blah BS about needing to make a statement. It's clear all the politicians are posturing positions more than anything.

Anywho... with the situation as it sits, lousy September seasonality and the charts bordering on "broken" I see no reason to stick my neck out. I'll keep one eye open for surprises since the market is good humored in that regard, but for the remainder of my week off I plan to stay comfortably ensconced in the Garage.

 

[Mapper]

Since I logged in and made a comment today I thought I'd update the sig and throw a little update here. I've been silently reformulating my moves to reflect what I've learned over the years...and the fact that I used a partial TSP loan for part of a down payment on a home in 2013. Owning a home at this point has made me rethink my investment strategies a bit.

TSP:
At any rate, with TSP I'm currently 30% in C,S and I (mostly C & S). 70% in G. I was 60% in as of last week but pulled back my exposure end of month.
We are in a bull market so I'm maintaining exposure but I'm keeping powder dry for a bigger pullback that I keep "expecting"...we'll see.

Taxable brokerage:
In my trading account I'm way overweight on TZA. I held a position too long and I have turned it into a "hedge" by adding to the position here and there as TZA continues to lose value. I don't think I'll ever do this again, holding ETFs is a bad idea, I really do think, and thus I contemplate selling the whole position at a substantial loss almost every day. However, Dollar Cost Averaging into bullish positions has been very successful for me over the last few years and in the back of my head I know this TZA position will really generate some cash to buy "wall flowers" if/when the large correction comes.

IRAs:
IRAs I'm roughly 90% in the market, mostly in dividend paying large cap equities. Every so often I re-evaluate positions and sell 1 or 2 for something that is seemingly more "undervalued". I'm reinvesting ALL of the dividend returns. I plan to do this perpetually until the day comes when I retire (many, many years in the future). I currently plan to hold any remaining cash (~10%) in those accounts until we see a significant correction.

Home:
I bought my house in one of those markets that is fairly dynamic and "desirable" doing so required some serious sacrifice and my influx into investment accounts has thus dropped off substantially as I put money into a simple savings account for unforeseen household reparis. I see the home/property as a substantial "investment" as well as a home. Since I did not have this asset before I've had to do a lot of rethinking my other investment/savings strategies. Thankfully my mortgage is actually cheaper than rent given my ability to make a good down payment...I bought the same house I was renting.

Thanks to everyone at TSP talk. I WOULD NOT have been able to make that kind of down payment without much of what I have learned by visiting this site. You guys rock!!!!