03/22/13
Stocks lost ground yesterday as the Dow gave up 90-points after more concerns over the financial troubles in Cyprus were circulating.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 161"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.0043%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.02%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.82%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.81%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.15%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The S&P 500 rebounded this week, after a 3 day pullback, but the rally stalled after one positive day. It looks similar to the action we saw in February. If things work out the same way this time, the rally would resume today (Friday). If it doesn't we'll have to be on alert for a less bullish outcome, and possibly another test of the 50-day EMA, which is 3% below the current levels..
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The PMO indicator has now officially given a sell signal after it crossed below its 10-day EMA on Thursday. We've been monitoring this closely over the last week or two because the last couple of times we saw this kind of sell / buy / sell pattern while the PMO indicator was above the neutral zone, we saw a 150 and a 125 point decline in the S&P during the following couple of months.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
This chart from sentimenTrader.com shows more evidence of the smart money getting bearish while the dumb money is getting bullish, and the numbers are getting extreme. Not a great combination.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk
I have to admit I was watching more basketball on Thursday than I was watching the market, but at the end of the day the charts tell the story. That story is, the market is dipping now and we will just have to wait and see if the S&P can find support at the 20-day EMA, or if it's going to be different this time and the dip buyers stand aside rather than buy again. It's the perfect set up for the dip buyers, but I hope they are prepared to go back to defense if the outcome is different than we've seen in the past.
Thanks for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks lost ground yesterday as the Dow gave up 90-points after more concerns over the financial troubles in Cyprus were circulating.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 161"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.0043%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.02%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.82%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.81%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.15%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The S&P 500 rebounded this week, after a 3 day pullback, but the rally stalled after one positive day. It looks similar to the action we saw in February. If things work out the same way this time, the rally would resume today (Friday). If it doesn't we'll have to be on alert for a less bullish outcome, and possibly another test of the 50-day EMA, which is 3% below the current levels..
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The PMO indicator has now officially given a sell signal after it crossed below its 10-day EMA on Thursday. We've been monitoring this closely over the last week or two because the last couple of times we saw this kind of sell / buy / sell pattern while the PMO indicator was above the neutral zone, we saw a 150 and a 125 point decline in the S&P during the following couple of months.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
This chart from sentimenTrader.com shows more evidence of the smart money getting bearish while the dumb money is getting bullish, and the numbers are getting extreme. Not a great combination.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk
I have to admit I was watching more basketball on Thursday than I was watching the market, but at the end of the day the charts tell the story. That story is, the market is dipping now and we will just have to wait and see if the S&P can find support at the 20-day EMA, or if it's going to be different this time and the dip buyers stand aside rather than buy again. It's the perfect set up for the dip buyers, but I hope they are prepared to go back to defense if the outcome is different than we've seen in the past.
Thanks for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
