04/04/13
Day #10 of the alternating up / down chop for the market came in the form of a 1% loss for the S&P and Nasdaq, with stiffer losses for the small caps, and the Dow gave up 112-points.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 150"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.0043%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.21%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-1.04%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-1.54%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.61%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The S&P 500 fell below the 20-day EMA intraday, but closed just above it. The small rising wedge broke and the next level of support to be tested would be the bottom of the rising trading channel near 1545.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The small caps continue to lag and their recent weakness was a good clue that something was amiss.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Russell 2000 fell below the 50-day EMA for the first time in several months. sentimenTrader.com is using the 50-day Simple Average in this data, but the meaning is the same...
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
"None of the occurrences saw the Russell rebound right away; the fastest that it was able to score a new high was 14 trading days, which happened to be the last instance two years ago."
The Transportation Index, which has also lagged in April and fell below the rising support line on Tuesday, found support at the 50-day EMA on its first test. The high volume over the last two days could be telling us that this is not just small investors getting worried, but possibly big money managers are selling heavily. We could see a snap back rally after the three day drubbing in the Transports, and we'll want to see if volume is low telling us that the big money will likely sell that rally. If a snap back rally comes on high volume, that would be more bullish.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
I am posting this semiconductor chart because it too has suffered pretty significant losses this week. It actually closed at its lowest point since early February, and it is now testing the intraday low from February 21.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
We saw the commodities lead the way down well before the S&P 500 peaked and after a break down from a bear flag - and a test of the bottom of the flag - commodities are now threatening to make new lows, which of course would be a bad sign for the S&P 500.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Housing Index has dropped about 10% from its recent highs, although yesterday it closed well off of the lows.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The rising support line is being tested and with the housing market recovery being a big reason for the stock market rally this year, it is probably very important that this index does not break down from its rising trend.
Don't forget about the jobs report Friday morning. Perhaps a good report will turn the market back around. But a weak report could knock the indices that are still above their support lines and 50-day EMA's, down below them which could trigger more selling. Be careful out there.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Day #10 of the alternating up / down chop for the market came in the form of a 1% loss for the S&P and Nasdaq, with stiffer losses for the small caps, and the Dow gave up 112-points.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 150"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.0043%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.21%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-1.04%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-1.54%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.61%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The S&P 500 fell below the 20-day EMA intraday, but closed just above it. The small rising wedge broke and the next level of support to be tested would be the bottom of the rising trading channel near 1545.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The small caps continue to lag and their recent weakness was a good clue that something was amiss.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Russell 2000 fell below the 50-day EMA for the first time in several months. sentimenTrader.com is using the 50-day Simple Average in this data, but the meaning is the same...
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
"None of the occurrences saw the Russell rebound right away; the fastest that it was able to score a new high was 14 trading days, which happened to be the last instance two years ago."
The Transportation Index, which has also lagged in April and fell below the rising support line on Tuesday, found support at the 50-day EMA on its first test. The high volume over the last two days could be telling us that this is not just small investors getting worried, but possibly big money managers are selling heavily. We could see a snap back rally after the three day drubbing in the Transports, and we'll want to see if volume is low telling us that the big money will likely sell that rally. If a snap back rally comes on high volume, that would be more bullish.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
I am posting this semiconductor chart because it too has suffered pretty significant losses this week. It actually closed at its lowest point since early February, and it is now testing the intraday low from February 21.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
We saw the commodities lead the way down well before the S&P 500 peaked and after a break down from a bear flag - and a test of the bottom of the flag - commodities are now threatening to make new lows, which of course would be a bad sign for the S&P 500.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Housing Index has dropped about 10% from its recent highs, although yesterday it closed well off of the lows.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The rising support line is being tested and with the housing market recovery being a big reason for the stock market rally this year, it is probably very important that this index does not break down from its rising trend.
Don't forget about the jobs report Friday morning. Perhaps a good report will turn the market back around. But a weak report could knock the indices that are still above their support lines and 50-day EMA's, down below them which could trigger more selling. Be careful out there.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
