Looking For a Reason to be Bullish.

I'm looking for a reason to be bullish, but I can't seem to find anything, so, I'm still a bear here. No follow through day according to IBD and it better happen soon, for, the best FTD's happen within 4-7 days of the initial rally. Volume has been weak on up days and big on down days, what else is new? We are now on day 10 of the initial rally attempt and severely overbought. I'm not planning on an FTD any time soon.

Definition of an FTD from IBD:

From the beginning of any attempted market rally during a definite downtrend, a 'follow-through' day is identified when the index closes up 1.7 percent or more for the day on a significant increase in volume from the day before. The first two or three days of a rally are normally disregarded, as the rally has not yet proven it will succeed and 'follow through' with power and conviction. 'Follow-through' days therefore generally occur the fourth through seventh day of the attempted rally. They serve as a confirmation that the market has really changed direction and is in a new uptrend. If the rally follows through anywhere from the fourth to tenth day of the rally (preferably from the fourth through seventh), it is an indication of a new uptrend.

I am not worried about China allegedly dumping our debt here either. They didn't know at the time that they had checked into the Hotel California when they began to buy our debt many years ago; a predicament that they can never leave.

As for the pundits telling us that it's not important that the Fed is beginning to tighten- Hah, weren't they telling us to buy in July 2007?

- China and India have begun their credit tightening cycle as inflation is on the rise.
- Targets always overshoot. When has a fed cycle been right on point? Instead it's always too much for too long or too tight for too long. The tightening has begun.
- The charts of XLE and KRE look horrible here too. We need the banks- no matter what anybody believes- we need the banks to lead this rally.
- Dow Transports facing major resistance at 4060 and are severely overbought. Will they break through or will they form that right shoulder here?
- The whole investment world now believes we will have a failed bond auction as China had begun to sell treasuries in December of 2009. Here's my question: Do you believe this 'news' has already been factored into the markets or do you believe that bond traders just found out about this tidbit? We shall see what the market brings in the weeks ahead.
- For every job there are six unemployed Americans looking for a job. Sad. Very sad.

Something to consider here as March 1st lurks upon us:

 

[coolhand]

I follow IBD, but admittedly don't watch it as close as I should. Thanks for the update on that aspect. Agree with everything else too.

 

[malyla]

Thanks Bullitt. Enjoyed the commentary. Do you put a lot of value in that information in the last chart? How accurate is that turn indicator (Bradley)? Is it a broad indicator of the stock market or do bonds (doubting this) also follow this indicator or one like it? Thanks again for keeping us all informed.

 

[tsptalk]

That chart is based on astrology. I'm not opposed to using all available tools if they work (Ebbchart uses it as part of his formula I believe) , but thought you'd want to know malyla, in case you didn't see that.

 

[Bullitt]

The chart is a Bradley Siderograph Turn Model and we will be probably be hearing more about this in 2010 as it makes its way through the blogosphere. Many TA's like to use these type of cyclical road maps as a crutch to promote their stance. Like Tom said, it's model is based off astrology, aka the moonbeams, and used solely by itself is about as useless as any other technical analysis tool; coupled with other indicators, it can be a sign of trouble or prosperity.

Don't read too much into the degree of drops, it's more for reading when turn dates will occur than anything.

Me personally, I don't read much into it; just another tool on the belt.