Last Month's Best Fund Method Strategy

[AlmostAmos]

And, next month's is?

 

[malyla]

And, next month's is?

I need to have today's closing price for the accurate figures, but if I had to take a wild guess:toung: I'd say the F fund for Sept

 

[AlmostAmos]

Are most of you requesting the IFT the morning (before 12:00pm EST) of the 1st day of the month? I read back through and couldn't figure out what most were doing.

 

[crws]

Are most of you requesting the IFT the morning (before 12:00pm EST) of the 1st day of the month? I read back through and couldn't figure out what most were doing.

any IFT made at this point today will process COB 9/1, and will be logged as a Sept IFT.

 

[malyla]

Are most of you requesting the IFT the morning (before 12:00pm EST) of the 1st day of the month? I read back through and couldn't figure out what most were doing.

I don't trade LMBF in a Bear market (as defined by the 8.6 yr business cycle).

But, the idea is to be in the new fund of the month cob the first day of the month so a transfer before noon on the 1st day of the month is the official transfer time. I guess you can front run the signal and buy into a new fund cob of the last day of the month (like today before noon), but usually LMBF performs an IFT before noon on the 1st.

Waiting for another Bull market signal.

 

[James48843]

I have been logging and recording the best price AFTER the close of the last trading day of the month. I.E. today's close (Aug 31st) will determine what to do before noon tomorrow.

That would be as follows: "F" fund is best for the month, and will be moving to "F" tomorrow. I'll have all the stats later this evening.

 

[James48843]

Official results from "Last Month, Best Month" for August:

F Fund rises 1.28%.

Therefore, move to "F" before noon tomorrow. Here's the whole chart:

View attachment 9941

 

[James48843]

Move indicated on the "Last Month- Best Month" chart.

Last month, the stocks were:

G= + 0.17%

F= + 0.17%

C= + 8.92%

S= + 11.47%

I= + 9.81%

Therefore, the Last Month Best Month method will move to the "S" fund today. Move before noon today, becomes effective at COB today.

 

[tsptalk]

Therefore, the Last Month Best Month method will move to the "S" fund today. Move before noon today, becomes effective at COB today.

We have a winner! S-fund had a nice month.

 

[James48843]

Well, we're at the end of October. And once again, the "S" fund was the largest gainer last month- with 4.48% gain. That means we leave the money in the "S" fund as we move into November.

Here's the table, from Govexec.com:

View attachment 10136

We remain invested in the "S" fund moving forward- no change for November.
​

 

[tsptalk]

Here's the table, from Govexec.com:

GovExec? I hear TSP Talk has a nicer table. ​

​

 

[James48843]

Well, I missed copying the table today from TSPTALK- sorry Tom.

Instead, here is the left over Govexec.com table which is still posted over there-

View attachment 10265

November's best performing fund was the "S" fund, which was up 3%. So the Last Month Best Month method remains invested in "S" fund this month- no change in allocation.

Return so far this year: 5.26%, before the 2% bump up today.


​

 

[James48843]

Last Month Best Month method makes a move today- as a result of today's action, the "I" fund became the best performing fund for the month of December. So we move to "I" fund now. This IFT will be effective at the COB Monday.

Here's the December performance:

View attachment 10398

Move for LMBM method to the "I" fund.

(Note- the tracker is currently down tonight, i'll be making the IFT as soon as it comes back up this weekend. )

​

 

[david.alan.williams]

I had just finished running the numbers on another method so since I had the spreadsheet filled in, I ran the number on the LMBM Method. I'm VERY impressed. I'm most impressed since the L Funds had over 20% losses in 2008 but this systems losses were much easier to swallow.

Attached is 1995-2010 evaluation.

D

 

[Hallatauer]

Thanks for the chart! Always nice to see confirmation of successful investing strategy. Having been in the TSP 23 years, I've kept most of my money in stock funds, S,C, and I and have done well but this method shows even better than the C fund for the last 16 years. wowza

 

[ArchAngel]

I'm a bit confused (not difficult for me). According to the autotracker LMBM is sitting at 4.12% wheras the I fund is at 2.69%. How does LMBM earn almost another 2% when it has been in I all month? What am I missing?

 

[tsptalk]

I'm a bit confused (not difficult for me). According to the autotracker LMBM is sitting at 4.12% wheras the I fund is at 2.69%. How does LMBM earn almost another 2% when it has been in I all month? What am I missing?

It was actually in the S fund on the first trading day of January.

Officially, it doesn't know which fund it is going to be in during the following month until after the last share prices of the month are posted, which is too late to make an IFT on the last day of the month. That means the IFT is input on the first trading day of the new month, putting it in the new fund on the 2nd trading day of the new month.

Simple, right?

 

[ArchAngel]

Got it now. Thanks Tom!

 

[James48843]

Last Month Best Month method:

Results are in for January.

As of Jan 31, the results are: I fund continues to be the best of the lot.

We'll stay in "I" fund for the next month.

Here is the data tonight-
January 2011:

G= + 0.24%
F= + 0.13%
C= + 2.37%
S= + 1.23%
I = + 2.41%

So "I" continues to be the best performing fund, and we'll stay in "I" for February.

(Note- this graphic I got off Govexec.com tonight- and it contains errors. The prices are right, but the "daily change" is all wrong. I'll post TSPTALK's correct numbers after Tom posts them. Thanks)

View attachment 10552​

P.S. - the L-2050 fund officially opened today at the close of business, and is now at $10.00 a share.

 

[Soupguy]

Interesting. I dumped everything into the L2050. I want to see how long it takes to get to 15 or 16 a share, then Ill dump it pick up on the LMBFM again.