Last Month's Best Fund Method Strategy

[Soupguy]

How does this method compare to allocating 70/20/10 % toward the C/S/I funds? Can anyone analyze the 70/20/10 method since the inception of these funds and post each year increase/decrease and then an aggregate total of all years with a comparison of the LMBF method?

 

[malyla]

How does this method compare to allocating 70/20/10 % toward the C/S/I funds? Can anyone analyze the 70/20/10 method since the inception of these funds and post each year increase/decrease and then an aggregate total of all years with a comparison of the LMBF method?

Hey Soupguy,

I put an excel spreadsheet together and placed it here http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=171090&postcount=72
which shows some investing scenarios and compares them over the last 17 years. I have not had time to update it but you are free to modify for your own uses. It's based on Tom's original spreadsheet for tracking your tsp investment.

G.L. Malyla

 

[nnuut]

How would this work on a two week basis, does anyone know?

 

[malyla]

How would this work on a two week basis, does anyone know?

Hi nnuut,

I looked at that here http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=211703&postcount=113
but it didn't work so well. There was talk that just following the 20 day moving average would give better results.

M.

 

[James48843]

Hey- I forget to get the numbers today before noon. I know we have a move in the LMBM -

Anybody got the official end of May numbers?

Can anyone verify that these are correct for May?

G +0.28% F +0.85% C -7.99% S -7.51% I -11.20%

 

[tsptalk]

That's correct

 

[James48843]

OK- shift in LMBM fund to the "F" fund.

Tom- is it too late today?

 

[nnuut]

Hi nnuut,

I looked at that here http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=211703&postcount=113
but it didn't work so well. There was talk that just following the 20 day moving average would give better results.

M.

Thanks a bunch malyla, too bad.

 

[tsptalk]

OK- shift in LMBM fund to the "F" fund.

Tom- is it too late today?

yes, too late - but go ahead and input it and I will manual change it tomorrow.

 

[James48843]

Last Month Best Month method - I forgot to post last night- but here is the result from June:

G= +0.24%
F= +1.56%
C= -5.24%
S= -6.90%
I= -1.75%

So...we continue invested in the "F" fund.

Good luck.

 

[James48843]

For July, the LAST MONTH BEST MONTH METHOD uses the following results:

G fund: + 0.23%
F Fund: + 1.07%
C Fund: + 7.01%
S Fund: + 7.00%
I Fund: +10.78%

So....for August, the LMBM Method shifts the allocation to the "I" fund.

Good luck.

 

[malyla]

This does not change anything for the LMBF but my July figures are

G 0.22%
F 0.75%
C 5.93%
S 5.81%
I 10.94%

Looking for where the error is in my calculations.

Just double checked the share prices and the calculations for the month and they seem right. Weirdly, my returns match the monthly returns on the tsp up to June 2010. My June 2010 differs from the tsp website.

My May returns are:
G 0.28%
F 0.85%
C (-7.99%)
S (-7.51%)
I (-11.20%)
Which perfectly matches the tsp website as does the previous 4 months.

My June returns are:
G 0.23%
F 1.56%
C (-4.28%)
S (-6.09%)
I (-1.18%)

But the tsp website has June as:
G 0.24%
F 1.56%
C (-5.24%)
S (-6.90%)
I (-1.75%)

So, did fees get taken in June?

 

[tsptalk]

This does not change anything for the LMBF but my July figures are

G 0.22%
F 0.75%
C 5.93%
S 5.81%
I 10.94%

Looking for where the error is in my calculations.

How do you figure the return malyla?

Just looking at the C-fund:

July end: 13.2035

June end: 12.339

13.2035 - 12.339 = 0.8645

0.8645 / 12.339 = 7.006%

 

[malyla]

Whew! Found the error. Missed a day in June so all the dates were off by one. Everything matches again.

Thanks Tom.

 

[James48843]

I'm running off the TSP Ticker over on http://govexec.com

View attachment 9791​

 

[malyla]

I'm running off the TSP Ticker over on http://govexec.com

View attachment 9791​

Ohhh... Nice site. They have changed it since I was last there (it's been a while). Thanks James.

 

[malyla]

Fixed the error and have the following returns ytd:

(-4.81%) : 100% I

0.38% : 40% C 30% S 30% I

2.36% : 20% F 30% C 30% S 20% I

4.68% : LMBF method

6.53% : Biz_Cyc method 100% F(but how long before the bond bubble implosion?)

 

[tsptalk]

I'm running off the TSP Ticker over on http://govexec.com

I use http://www.tsptalk.com/tsp_share_prices.html.

 

[malyla]

:laugh:

Noted Tom.

 

[Soupguy]

Ooooph...

I fund is tanking after today.