Last Month's Best Fund Method Strategy

[James48843]

I will be posting the "LBMB METHOD" in the auto tracker for 2010. I haven't done it before, but we'll give it a try, and track it in the tracker for 2010.

Watch for it on the Autotracker.

 

[beafet]

Okay, I figured it (my 2nd best fund theory, no exceptions) up YTD as of COB yesterday. If my calculations are right then the return is 42.84%.

 

[tsptalk]

Now try 2008.

 

[beafet]

Again, if my math is correct, 2008 was a return of -8.41%
2007 was 1.18%

 

[tsptalk]

Again, if my math is correct, 2008 was a return of -11.34%

I actually get -29.35% for 2008.

But that is without using G and F at all - Isn't that what you had said, or did I misunderstand?

Each month, put 100% into the fund that was last month's second best fund..
UNLESS, if the second best fund was G or F, then put 100% into the fund that was last month's best among C, S, or I.

Here's the spreadsheet. I may have done it incorrectly...

 

[beafet]

No, sorry about the confusion. When I said "(my 2nd best fund theory, no exceptions)" I meant that you always choose the 2nd best fund, without exception. Even if that would be a G or F. Sorry about that. Your point about always being in a stock fund got me thinking more clearly.

Also, I got the following:
2007 was 1.18%
2006 was 22.46%
2005 was -3.03%

 

[tsptalk]

Oh, OK. Thanks

 

[beafet]

Using your spreadsheet, I get -8.49% for 2008....I'm not sure why the difference exists. I left my fund prices at the defaults that were with the calculator...maybe I need to go rethink all this.

//confused

 

[tsptalk]

I'm not sure I'd trust my results 100%. I threw it together pretty quickly and didn't double check the cell calculations. I may not have even had the correct allocation each month. If you'd like me to I'll will look at it more thoroughly.

 

[beafet]

Sure, if you don't mind. I'm new at all this, and I don't trust my numbers.

 

[tsptalk]

I also get -8.49%.

 

[James48843]

End of month for December, 2009:

G= +0.25%

F= -1.55%

C= +1.94%

S= + 6.57%

I = + 1.43%


The LMBM method will move to a position of 100% "S" fund, effective COB on Monday.
(note- corrected after share prices were posted tonight. It appears they stole 0.04% off the F fund's value today, as well as 0.04% off the C fund, and 0.09% off the S fund value today. It was not reflective of the market, but rather someone tinkered with the value of all three today.

The I fund was off too due to the dollar and an unknown FV amount.

Somebody --not sure who--just swept a ton of cash today off the books with some fudged numbers. Must be an end-of-year thing.)

 

[beafet]

Did anyone use this method last year? How did it do for you?

 

[peterson82]

LMBF started off poorly, and did not reach positive returns until May, but dipped back down again in June. Finally, after June the strategy kept moving up. It finished 2009 at +15.8%. This looks good compared to other years, but it really is not great considering the returns people got this year.

 

[McDuck]

LMBF started off poorly, and did not reach positive returns until May, but dipped back down again in June. Finally, after June the strategy kept moving up. It finished 2009 at +15.8%. This looks good compared to other years, but it really is not great considering the returns people got this year.

15.8% is pretty good. Better than people that are G or F or me.

I don't understand when you say "looks good compared to other years". This has been a good method for the last decade or more.

 

[XL-entLady]

End of month for December, 2009:

....
Somebody --not sure who--just swept a ton of cash today off the books with some fudged numbers. Must be an end-of-year thing.)

I'm shocked ... shocked, I tell you! ROFL! :nuts:

Lady

 

[OBGibby]

15.8% is pretty good. Better than people that are G or F or me.

I don't understand when you say "looks good compared to other years". This has been a good method for the last decade or more.

Does anybody have the numbers going back a decade or so? I'm curious as to how good it was...

 

[McDuck]

Does anybody have the numbers going back a decade or so? I'm curious as to how good it was...

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=159590&postcount=1

 

[peterson82]

2005: +7.9%
2006: +6.5%
2007: +4.9%
2008: -10.6%
2009: +15.8

 

[OBGibby]

Thanks, McDuck. Interesting numbers...