Last Month's Best Fund Method Strategy

[McDuck]

Last Month Best Month method would make a transfer to "S" fund this month.

That is correct.

LMBFM's YTD return is -7.6%. Not too good. It took it o the chin during the month of February.

I don't LMBFM work when the government takes over the means of production.

 

[James48843]

BY the way- best fund for May was the I fund, with a gain of over 13%.

It's off to a weak start for June, however.

If you are doing the 'LAST MONTH, BEST MONTH" theory, it would be a switch to "I" this month.

Good luck.

 

[James48843]

Last Month Best Month method- change in allocation today.

June showed:

G Fund: +0.27%
F Fund: +0.54%
C Fund: +0.24%
S Fund: +0.74%
I Fund: -1.08%

If you are doing the LAST MONTH, BEST MONTH" theory, it would be a switch to the "S" fund this month.

Good luck.

 

[Viva_La_Migra]

Is the LMBFM in the tracker? I looked for it, but probably glossed over it. What are the returns so far this year?

 

[James48843]

It is NOT in the tracker.

We were looking for someone who wanted to do the honors of posting the changes on a regular basis. Would you like to volunteer?

I'm not sure what the numbers are on it right now. I can go back through and try and figure it out. But not tonight- too much else to do.
Would you like to commit to adopt it for a year, and keep up with it every month?

 

[McDuck]

Is the LMBFM in the tracker? I looked for it, but probably glossed over it. What are the returns so far this year?

As of today cob, -3.16%.

 

[McDuck]

For July, LMBF is in the F-fund.

 

[McDuck]

I created a spreadsheet to evaluate this method using 5 blue-chip stocks over the last 9 months. LMBFM had a return of -6.1% while the S&P500 has a return of -21.1%. If all 5 stocks had a negative return for the previous month, then the method was in cash during the current month.

 

[James48843]

Last month best month method- would switch to "I" this month.

Last month the I fund gained 9.73%.

 

[McDuck]

Last month best month method- would switch to "I" this month.

Last month the I fund gained 9.73%.

Yes, but LMBFM was in the F-fund.

This year LMBFM is not doing well at all. I can't recommend it.

I think tracking the 20-day EMA is much better. It's essentially the same but isn't restricted to making an IFT only at the beginning of the month.

 

[peterson82]

Aug Stats:
F-Fund: up 1.03%
C-Fund: up 3.62%
S-Fund: up 3.85%
I-Fund: up 4.87%

I-Fund for September

 

[peterson82]

Sept Stats:
F-Fund: up 1.07%
C-Fund: up 3.74%
S-Fund: up 5.94%
I-Fund: up 3.79%

S-Fund for October

 

[James48843]

Last Month Best Fund method-

Moves to "F" for November.


Oct 30, 2009 close
FUND G F C S I
$13.05 $13.37 $12.23 $14.87 $17.71
Daily Change: $0.00 $0.06 ($0.35) ($0.43) ($0.52)

October- Month (%)
G=+ 0.26
F= + 0.51
C= -1.86
S= -5.51
I= -2.41

 

[peterson82]

S-Fund took a huge hit in the last half of the month... It was up 3.5% after October 15, and ended the month down 5.5%! Down 9% ouch.

 

[peterson82]

Last Month Best Fund was in F-Fund (Up 1.3%) in November, for December it will change to the C-Fund.

November's results:
F-Fund: + 1.3%
C-Fund: + 6.0%
S-Fund: + 3.9%
I-Fund: + 3.2%

 

[beafet]

I'm no financial genius, but appears that much of the time, the second best fund from the previous month does well the next month, at least in months that see positive gains overall. Maybe someone smarter than me can chart it and see what the YTD would be?

 

[beafet]

All right, here's my theory.

Each month, put 100% into the fund that was last month's second best fund..
UNLESS, if the second best fund was G or F, then put 100% into the fund that was last month's best among C, S, or I.

Thoughts?

 

[tsptalk]

So, you'd always be 100% in a stock fund? Scary.

 

[beafet]

Yeah, that is a good point. I think to reduce the risk, you would have to take out that exception. The theory, as is, seems to work well for this year.

I will have to try and figure with simply just going with the second best fund.

 

[shitepoke]

me thinks it worked well this year in an up year and would be tough to be over-exposed to stocks year to year...