KevinD's Account Talk

[tsptalk]

So the service I was using lost me $10K.

Sorry about your losses Kevin. I know you said that you found that service on Google, and this isn't to rub it in, but I wanted everyone to know that it was not a TSP Talk service, just in case that was not clear to someone. During that same time, our premium services' returns were modest, but all were positive:

Rev +1.59%
Fred +2.71%
Ebb +0.16%
Scribbler +0.65%

Better luck in the 2nd half of '09!

 

[Steadygain]

I'm sorry to hear about your loss Kevin, and losing that amount is definately a pain in the #&^

This morning I noticed your post on the AT and thought that was really cool

I hadn't thought of doing that BUT it's great when we can let each other know what we're doing.

Anyway I lost way more than that last year and still overall this Market SUCKS - in the long run things should work out.

GL man

 

[KevinD]

Thanks guys.

 

[KevinD]

GL man

Trying real hard to keep a positive attitude.

 

[Birchtree]

Ah, don't be so modest Steady. If we got a cyclical bull inside a secular bear we're good for a year and one-half - if it's a cyclical bull inside a continuing mega trend secular bull you can count on perhaps at least 5 years and maybe more. Plenty of time to make serious money.

 

[Guest2]

Kevin, on March 09th, 2009 I was -13.23% down. Since then, I turned things
around by 15% (4 months later). I'm not trying to toot my horn, I'm just
trying to say that all things are possible. Chin up, my friend ! You could
be amazed in short order, even if we're not in a Suckular BuLL Market.
(spelling intended). Be patient and "Don't Look Back" (Boston reference)

 

[KevinD]

SB. I'm good. Thanks for stopping by.

 

[nasa1974]

Kevin,

You still are ahead of me in the tracker.

 

[KevinD]

I read slow. I learn slow. But eventually (if I don't give up) I'll get where I'm trying to go. Baby steps.

 

[Show-me]

Hang in there, you can do it!

 

[CapeChem]

KD...anytime your feeling low and always making bad TSP decision, peek at the tracker and look down, Thats where you will find me ( and Nutt)......chin up

 

[KevinD]

I ain't that far ahead of you guys. Some time next month my real account moves will be back in sync with what I do in the tracker.

In my real account I still have my 2 IFTs for this month. I'll probably try to use them for a quick in and out. We'll see...

 

[Birchtree]

A quick in and out works for The Minute Men but not for investors.

 

[KevinD]

You been talking to my wife?

 

[KevinD]

I got some good news in the mail today.

I started my Postal career with an executive appointment as a rural route substitute on May 28, 1983. I was converted to career status on Oct 25, 1986 as a distribution clerk.

I wanted to "buy back" this time so I filled out standard form 3108 - 'Application to make Service Credit Payment for Civilian Service." Today I got a letter form OPM approving my application. Now all I have to do is pay $2335.96 and I get 3.5 years added to my years of service.

I'm stoked! :nuts:

 

[tsptalk]

Cool Kevin!

 

[KevinD]

I'm still trying to formulate an TSP investing strategy. Have a plan and work the plan, right? I'm off work this week and the last week of August. I really don't want to spend all day sitting in front of this computer for half of August so I'm in a sort of "set it and for get it" mood.

This post by ContrarianJeff brought some clarity to my clouded mind. The markets have been in an uptrend since early March so why have I been bucking the trend?

I have decided to use the L2020 as my Garage. I'm going to IFT 50% into the 2020 and keep half in the G as my first IFT for the month. If the bottom drops out I'll use the other half to buy in. I may just throw it in the 2020 or I might play the CSI with the other half. I'll make that decision when time comes.

I'm still trying to come up with a plan. Maybe Birchtree's right. B&H sure would be the simplest thing for me ...

Good luck everybody.

 

[Birchtree]

I will tell you that a strategy of buy and hold is not easy - you simply have to plan longer term. But using a dca discipline does act as an equalizer and helps average out the bottoms. Now our friend ContrarianJeff will fall to the Birchtree before the month ends if he does not get off the lily pad. I'm headed to do some buying.

 

[KevinD]

B&H and DCA worked well for me for over 18 years. 2008 was my Black Swan. :blink:

Heres to the future.

 

[tsptalk]

B&H and DCA worked well for me for over 18 years. 2008 was my Black Swan. :blink:

B&H is a viable strategy, I can not stomach the swings. Be prepared to lose 20% to 50% of your account during any given bear market. If you can deal with that, that may be your strategy.

Even if I do lose 20% to 50%, I do like to at least feel like I have some control and act on educated guesses, rather than being at the mercy of the market. The downside of doing your own thing is that you have to kick yourself when you are wrong, instead of the market.

Good luck whatever you decide.

By the way, the 3 premium services that have been around for 3 years, are all doing better than a straight stock B&H portfolio, and a 20% in each fund diversified allocation. Just say'in...

Jan 2007 thru 7/31/09
Revshark:-4.51%
Trader Fred:+11.20%
Ebbchart:-3.70%
G Fund:+10.60%
F Fund:+16.96%
C Fund:-26.10%
S Fund:-23.74%
I Fund:-24.95%
20% Each: -7.42%
L2040:-17.29%
L2030:-13.54%
L2020:-9.39%
L2010:+0.27%
L-INC:+4.80%