justbizness45's Account Talk

[justbizness45]

From the executive director of FRTIB on the TSP Website:

http://www.tsp.gov/curinfo/login/2008Oct7-Message-Exec-Direct.pdf

He wants us not to panic and be good buy and holders in the L funds. How can they continue to preach this junk!! The sheep will follow.

 

[justbizness45]

If you check it out on Poolman's thread the Don Harrold videos are getting quite bullish. He's calling the bottom at 8700-9500 on the DOW. He thinks even if he misses it the bottom will be within 10%. Best of all he bashes Cramer. Maybe Cramer should hire this guy................
View attachment 4835 :nuts::nuts:

Still 80C/20S waiting the rally.

 

[justbizness45]

MTD: -afraid to look. Still 80C/20S. No choice at this point but to hold on for the eventual rally. If I get out I can't get back in. Maybe tomorrow..............:suspicious: Good news is I made +4% last quarter. Statements are out if you haven't noticed.

 

[justbizness45]

Kinda reminds me of the "market bottom" lately:


View attachment 4851

 

[justbizness45]

It's hard to imagine being happy I only lost .7% today, but after the last week that's exactly how I feel.:suspicious: Blooomberg reported the VIX over 75 today at 2:03 pm. That was shortly before the rally at the end of the day. Capitulation??

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aBP.7WEc84C0&refer=home

VXF vs GSPC below, big volume spike around 3:15

View attachment 4865

The report of buying into banks like in the depression and the G7 summit might have sparked it. I was working so I am not sure when the reports came out today. I couldn't find another catlyst in the timeframe to attribute:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081010/financial_meltdown.html

Bottom line for me is, this may be the start of the rally we've been waiting on or not. Either way I am going to buy as much "C" as I can until the crash reverses and get out at 1150 - 1200 if I can. Man that is a long way from 900.:nuts: Have a great weekend folks.

 

[justbizness45]

There's alot of talk about how cheap the fund prices are right now. Friday the C fund was at 10.32. You have to go all the way back to 8/15/03 to find the C below this value. It was 10.31 then. The S fund hasn't been this low since 9/1/04 when it was 12.58. I'm not sure why there is more than a year between the low readings. Hopefully someone more learned than me has a explaination. If there is one. Probably something to do with different growth rates, maybe? I've been forced by circumstance and the FRTIB but I am embracing it. I'm on the Birch train and buying, buying, buying.

Still 80C/20S waiting for the rally.

 

[XL-entLady]

There's alot of talk about how cheap the fund prices are right now. Friday the C fund was at 10.32. You have to go all the way back to 8/15/03 to find the C below this value. It was 10.31 then. The S fund hasn't been this low since 9/1/04 when it was 12.58. I'm not sure why there is more than a year between the low readings. Hopefully someone more learned than me has a explaination. If there is one. Probably something to do with different growth rates, maybe? I've been forced by circumstance and the FRTIB but I am embracing it. I'm on the Birch train and buying, buying, buying.

Still 80C/20S waiting for the rally.

TSP started pricing shares in June of 2003 and started them with an arbitrary price of $10.00 a share, then they all grew from there. Just a tidbit that may be of interest.

I have a graph of what those prices have done by week from that point but as usual I can't get it to post with any clarity. I'll keep working on it.

Lady

 

[justbizness45]

TSP started pricing shares in June of 2003 and started them with an arbitrary price of $10.00 a share, then they all grew from there. Just a tidbit that may be of interest.

My thanks Lady, something I should have known but didn't.:embarrest:

 

[justbizness45]

latest on G7 meetings.

<iframe height="339" width="425" src="http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22425001/vp/27131631#27131631" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe>

 

[KevinD]

There's alot of talk about how cheap the fund prices are right now. <snip> I am embracing it. I'm on the Birch train and buying, buying, buying.

Gosh I'm tempted. :worried:

latest on G7 meetings.

<iframe height="339" width="425" src="http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22425001/vp/27131631#27131631" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe>

But news reports like this keep me on the lilly pad.

 

[justbizness45]

If today didn't make you smile you weren't in stocks. That being said for those of us that have been in since the first of the month need another day like today to break even. Congrat to those who got in COB Thurs or Fri. I sincerely hope you are able to retain your gains. I'm hoping for a 1200 upside before the big drop. That may take awhile. 1161 breaks me even in C. Enjoy today and may tomorrow be even better.

 

[justbizness45]

The last 2 days made up 40% of my losses this month. I am still 15.4% down and looking for 1161 on the S&P to break even for the month. I'm not real confident I'll get it. I think things are going to stay volatile and I'm playing for the overall direction to be up through the election as our illustrious officials continue to give lip service saying the current actions will work. After the election I think the lows of earlier this month will be tested and I hope to be out by then. Until then I will stay in stocks. My horizon is at least 8 years so I can weather this market if I'm forced. I am continuing to buy the max shares through the end of the year. This plan is subject to me changing my mind or the market changing it for me!!

 

[justbizness45]

Weeeee, let's ride the roller coaster!! Time to buy more "C". Payroll goes in tomorrow.

 

[justbizness45]

What a week!!! Good news is the week ended C up around 3.3%, S was also up around 3.6%. That is around a percent less than the indexes. Normally I would be estatic to make that in a week but the euphoria is numbed by the horrid losses from the first part of the month. With all the fear and the wild swings it's amazing we managed to hold any gain. I also managed to get another 90 shares of C through my payroll contributions. The real question is can we continue to move up next week. I am still betting on at least 1050 but that is going to be near strong resistance so I'm not confident we can move higher before the next drop.

Search dog training tomorrow so I get to play in the woods. :nuts: Everyone have a great weekend, Dave

 

[justbizness45]

Futures are up this morning, not that it means anything in this market. Lots of earnings reports this week. Fasten your seatbelts and put your trays in the upright position. Flight attendants prepare for take-off. GL to everyone this week.

 

[Eldritch Flatus]

Passengers will please remain seated with seatbelts buckled. Severe turbulence is expected. There is a possibility this flight may yet be cancelled. Thankyouverymuch.

 

[justbizness45]

Passengers will please remain seated with seatbelts buckled. Severe turbulence is expected. There is a possibility this flight may yet be cancelled. Thankyouverymuch.

Today was a good takeoff but it is a long flight back to 1160.

 

[justbizness45]

I expect we will see some consolidation today early after yesterdays gains. Futures are down this morning. We really need to break above this wedge Tom's been talking about. We've gotta get above 1000 on the S&P to keep this rally alive. Is today the day?

 

[justbizness45]

I partially capitulated today. I sold my losing S and some C for G. Currently 50C, 50G. I have been reading K Denninger for about a year now and he has been spot on in several areas. His latest article. scared the bejezus out of me. See Corepunchers post #1081 for the article.

If we break out below the wedge in Tom's TSPTalk I will probably go 100G and wait for the bottom. It looks like we are sitting right near the bottom edge of it right now.

 

[Christopher]

Yeah, and he dropped this nice little nuke near the end of the article:


"The FSC has not only limited insurance company exposure to Fannie, Freddie and Ginnie bonds and mortgage-backed securities, but has decided that existing credit ratings are meaningless.

The Insurance Bureau at the Financial Supervisory Commission in Taipei announced revised rules on how insurance companies can treat investments in mortgage-backed securities (MBS). The FSC says it cannot see how the United States will develop a valid mechanism to assess the credit quality of MBS issued by US federal housing loan agencies, namely Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae."

That's right folks. Taiwan's primary regulator for insurance companies has ruled that:

1. Ratings issued by our so-called "agencies" are worthless.
2. Agency securities can no longer be considered sovereign, "money good" debt.

Now maybe you think this is funny.

It is not funny. In fact, there is absolutely nothing funny about it.

This is how we lose our credit access worldwide.

It has now officially started and what Taiwan has done will spread.

Count on it."

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/626-To-Our-Government-CUT-IT-OUT-NOW.html

I have been reading K Denninger for about a year now and he has been spot on in several areas. His latest article. scared the bejezus out of me.