JTH's Account Talk

[JTH]

Interesting observations

YTD the Weighted Mid-90 of the S&P 500 are tied with the Weighted Top-10 at 5.37% each.

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From the Top-10, the last 52-Week High recorded was Google on 25-Aug, the oldest is from Amazon on 4-Feb.

 

[JTH]

A side note, it took a few months, but my dad was finally able to move his Retirement Mutual Funds out, and it's now under his direct control in a IRA. Those mutual funds had very high expense ratios, and were spread across several risk categories. Since he's retired, it was time to take off the risk.

My dad thinks the economy is going to tank, and he correlates this to the stock market. I made that mistake cutting my teeth back in 2008, when I put too much faith in economist. So we take a bunch of data, that is flawed, missing, corrupted, and let Economist tell us what the outcome will be. I try to tell him "Economists have predicted nine of the last five recessions", but you know as well as I do, some folks are set in their ways.

Anyhow, what's important, is his money is secured, my hope is that he spends as much of it as he can before he kicks the bucket.

 

[JTH]

Seasonality wise we are entering the weakest part of the year.

• Kids back to school, dropped a bunch of cash in the process, then start looking to trim profits.
• End of Fed's Fiscal year (old unspent money pulled back early, new money drops late)
• Quarterly Re-balancing
• Last 176 Weeks of September (1984-2024)
  • 48.3% win ratio Vs. normal 57%
  • -.23% average September return Vs. .23% non-September return
  • A total September Sum of -40.45%

 

[JTH]

A nice near-kiss of the lower standard deviation 3 support channel.

• This -2.27% pullback is shorter in duration and deeper than the previous -2.21% pullback.
• Tuesday's Volume was 2.77B, last year it was 2.80B
  • Average Volume for the first trading day of Sep 2017-2024 was 2.04B
  • Average Volume for the first trading day of Sep 2009-2016 was 4.19B
  • This means the last 8 years of volume is half the prior 8 years.
• The 63-LR Channel forward of the 7-Apr Yearly low was about 9.75% wide, now it's 5%
  • Within the channel, peak-to-peak, we are losing momentum.
    • 3-Jul 3.72%
    • 31-Jul 2.27%
    • 15-Aug .85%
    • 28-Aug .41%

 

[JTH]

Interesting turn of events for AVGO

• 12.61% WTD, 45.45% YTD
• Broadcom secured a $10 billion order for custom AI chips, widely believed to be from OpenAI
• Friday's opening gap was 16.23% which was nearly the high of the day, leaving us a 7.33% unfilled gap.
• While NVDA and MS closed the week down, AVGO and Google offset the difference.
• Total WTD drag from Top 2 (NVDA + MSFT) -.43%
• Total WTD pull from AVGO+GOOGL+GOOG was .84%

While the Weighted Top-10 is about 2.02% above it's hypothetical 50-MA.

• 32 of the the Top-50 are > 50-MA, weighted at 39.46% of the index.
• 18 of the the Top-50 are < 50-MA, weighted at 22.55% of the index.
• Translated, this means 64% of 62% of the index is above it's 50-MA
• And the money still flows: S&P 500 ETF VOO experienced a 5-day net inflow of $3.21 billion.

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• Breadth (by = weighted count) the number of stocks above their 50-MA has been declining while the index has been rising.
• If I had the juice, it'd be great to create a weighted Top-50 breath indicator, but since I don't have past data it's too much trouble to manually track it everyday.