JTH's Account Talk

[felixthecat]

Re: Sunday: Small pullback

Well…there it is…hard rally and then massive sell all in a day. Thanks for heads up.

 

[JTH]

Good morning

Having watched the late sell off last night, for those invested we've closed above the 200 SMA (did not pierce it) and have not pierced the Fri/Mon low, WtD we are 1.16% and today the futures have stayed positive. I suspect we should expect a pause day as folks might have overreacted to the conflicting news (thanks Janet).

Progress report: For myself, the 8-day 60% C-fund allocation yielded 1.33% that's the 2nd IFT this month, so I'll watch March finish out from the sidelines.

​

 

[JTH]

Good morning

SPX Pre-markets were largely in the red this Friday morning. Based on the previous 21-years of opening Gap performance, we can expect a 29% chance of a positive close.

See Column 3

 

[JTH]

Good morning

In Europe we finally went through our time change. This 2-week period between the States & Europe screws with me more than you might think, so I'm glad to be back to the 6-hour difference with the markets again.

It wasn't a great week for news, but it was a decent week for the markets. The S&P 500 closed up 4 of the last 5 trading sessions, closing the week up 1.39%. Thus far this year, Tech has been the leader, with the the NASDAQ 100 up an impressive 16.70% YTD.

S&P 500 Weekly


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Participants in the Top 600 of the AutoTracker gained .63% this week. The Top 50's G-Fund is still the dominant slice at 52.2%, but the CSI allocations have increased 16%.



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For a long-term view, applying a Linear Channel 112 sessions back to the October Bottom, we can see the index is under the mid-value line, with -3.05% risk to the downside and 7.06% reward to the upside.



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From a shorter perspective, going back 36 sessions off the February top, we are oversold. From this viewpoint we can see the index is well over the mid-value line, with a .53% reward to the upside, and -4.49% risk to the downside.

 

[JTH]

Post 2

17-March Big changes in the S&P 500 Friday highlight the power of index provider "The net effect: technology’s weight in the S&P will drop from roughly 27.7% to 24.5%, while the weighting of financials will expand from 11.5% to 14.2%. "

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On March 17th, the S&P 500 Index weightings changed, which also changed the Top-50 I've been tracking.

Cliff notes:

-- The Weighted Top-50 now make up 54% of the Index (Old weighting was 52%).
-- AMD (Advanced Micro Devices) has entered the Top-50 at spot #40, while COP (ConocoPhillips) has left and is now #58.

Chart below: Of these 10 Companies shared between the S&P 500 & NASDAQ 100, their combined weighting has increased. If you own these 10, then you own 55% of the NASDAQ 100 and 26% of the S&P 500.



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For the weighted Top-50's performance against the major moving averages:

-- The Top 10 of 50 make up 27.59% of the entire index.
-- 9 of the Top 10 are above the 10-SMA
-- 8 of the Top 10 are above the 50/100 SMA
-- 7 of the Top 10 are above the 200 SMA



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Last week, the weighted Top-50 contributed 1.07% of the S&P 500's 1.39% 5-day gain.

 

[JTH]

Last Week of the Quarter

Good morning

Today the futures have been positive, it's the last week of March, the last week of Quarter 1. If the markets were rigged, then this is the time to rig it.

For the Day of Week stats, there's been some modest improvements as most of the stats now pull data from 2023. The exception is Monday due to the 4 holidays falling on this day. For the win ratio, Wednesday has been the weakest, while Thursday has been the strongest. Last 2 Tue up, last 2 Wed down, last 2 Thur up.

 

[JTH]

Re: Sunday: Bears take the lead

Per the Google:



Weekly S&P 100 on top, weekly S&P 500 on the bottom. Not much difference....

 

[JTH]

MONTHS

Good morning

Some folks may ponder if they should exit this week, and re-enter next month, heck if I know.

From the Previous 63 years, "roughly speaking" April is the 3rd best month:

-- Has the 2nd best win ratio
-- The 5th best average of all positive gains
-- The 2nd best average of all closes (positive and negative)
-- The 5th best average of all negative closes

 

[Epic]

Re: MONTHS

From the Previous 63 years, "roughly speaking" April is the 3rd best month:

-- Has the 2nd best win ratio
-- The 5th best average of all positive gains
-- The 2nd best average of all closes (positive and negative)
-- The 5th best average of all negative closes

Can't argue with past averages data, but I would also keep in mind that Banks report Earnings in April, and we all know what they just went through, so that data will be a huge negative for the month. Can't imagine it'll be a "good" thing. :cheesy: ​
​Great job as always. Thank you Sir !!

 

[Ltrman61]

Re: MONTHS

Can't argue with past averages data, but I would also keep in mind that Banks report Earnings in April, and we all know what they just went through, so that data will be a huge negative for the month. Can't imagine it'll be a "good" thing. :cheesy: ​
​Great job as always. Thank you Sir !!

Do you know when in April the banks report earnings? Thank you.

 

[TommyIV]

Re: TGIF

You can filter to this page to show just the financial sector at any span of time. Looks like it really picks up mid-April.

Earnings Calendar - Investing.com

 

[JTH]

Good morning all

Yea Epic, I'm somewhat loosely tracking the April earnings, and thinking it could be the next excuse to push us back down. Off the 23-Feb high to 24-Mar low, XLF (Finance ETF) dropped -18% so I'm guessing some of those potential bad earnings are baked in the cake. I myself, would like to see lower prices, since I'm actively trading price levels in increments of 3% and sitting at 67% cash.

 

[JTH]

Here's a brief chart of Friday + the next trading day.

The last 27 times Friday closed up, the next trading day closed up 44% of the time.
The last 27 times Friday closed down, the the next trading day closed up 37% of the time.

 

[Epic]

Re: MONTHS

Do you know when in April the banks report earnings? Thank you.

Sorry, I don't have a list. It's various banks on various days.
You could look here >>>> https://www.google.com/search?q=ban...kgEDMi4zmAEAoAEByAEIwAEB&sclient=gws-wiz-serp

Different institutions have different dates, like Bank of America is April 18th and Wells Fargo is April 14th......
Hope that helps

 

[Ltrman61]

Re: MONTHS

Sorry, I don't have a list. It's various banks on various days.
You could look here >>>> https://www.google.com/search?q=ban...kgEDMi4zmAEAoAEByAEIwAEB&sclient=gws-wiz-serp

Different institutions have different dates, like Bank of America is April 18th and Wells Fargo is April 14th......
Hope that helps

Yep, that helps. Thanks!

 

[JTH]

Re: Last Week of the Quarter

Good morning

Today's charts review this past March and Quarter 1, tomorrow I'll post historical projections for April & Quarter 2. This March closed up 3.51% managing to cover a lot of ground with prices reaching the "Avg. of all loses" but also turning around and closing above the "Avg. of all gains". Considering the financial circumstances, it was an impressive month. Going back to 1960, this month ranked 17th of 64 Months of March, placing it in the top 27%.

SPX DAILY


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For 1st Quarter 2023, we also have an impressive performance, with the S&P 500 closing just below the "Avg. of all gains" with a gain of 7.03%, which ranks 16th of 64 1st Quarters, placing it in the top 25%.

SPX MONTHLY


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Thus far for the year, we've already breached the 63-Year 8.15% average (back in February), so it's conceivable we could reach 4471 or 16.45% which is the "Avg. of all gains".

SPX MONTHLY


In the meantime, enjoy the weekend

 

[JTH]

Re: Sunday: Bears take the lead

Good afternoon

After Saturday's review of March and Q1, it's time to look into the historical averages of April and Q2.

From the Previous 63 years, "roughly speaking" April is the 3rd best month:

-- Has the 2nd best win ratio
-- The 5th best average of all positive gains
-- The 2nd best average of all closes (positive and negative)
-- The 5th best average of all negative closes

We have some statistical tailwinds behind us.

-- All columns have win ratios above the 63-Year all month 60% average win ratio.
-- Over the past 21 years, April has an impressive 76% win ratio.
-- We are in Presidential Cycle year 3 (traditionally seen as above average for the stock market)
-- March closed up, and we closed March above the 12-Month SMA.



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The below chart correlates the previous 63 months of April with today's price levels. Climbing 1.45% to the April average at 4169 would take us to the previous February top. Based on historical averages, buyers might consider entering around 3975 and sellers might consider exiting around 4247. This is about a 6.5% price swing between these two levels.

SPX Daily


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For the previous 63 years divided into quarters, Quarter 2 "roughly speaking" ranks 3rd:

-- Has the worst win ratio ranking 4th
-- The 3rd best average of all positive gains
-- The 3rd best average of all closes (positive and negative)
-- The 1st best average of all negative closes



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Digging deeper, we can see the past 21 years have not been kind to Quarter 2, with a meager 52% win ratio. Historically speaking, June is the month which has dragged down the quarter's performance, so we have time to work and be cautious towards the last third of of the quarter.



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Correlating the previous 63 2nd quarters with today's price levels. Climbing 1.72% to the Q2 average at 4180 would take us to the previous February top. Based on historical averages, buyers might consider entering around 3903 and sellers might consider exiting around 4362. This is about an 11.5% price swing between these two levels.

SPX MONTHLY


Thanks, and enjoy the week ahead, it should be fun

 

[JTH]

Re: MONTHS

Good morning

The futures have been mostly flat with a slight negative bias, it should be interesting to see how this week plays out.
For the Day of Week stats, the last 27 days have a 59% win ratio (finally above the 21-year 54% bassline). Tue/Wed are weak, Thursday is strong.

Last 8 of 11 days closed up, Mon & FRI last 2 up, Thur last 3 up.


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The AutoTracker had a great week, participants gained 2.17%. As expected, with the nice gains, G-Funders were pushed out of the Top-50 with a 39% shift into the CSI funds reflected on the table.


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For myself, I was dumped on my head on the 22 March exit, so I've settled the month with a 1.49% gain. This bullish wave might be too strong for me to re-enter below my previous 3937 exit, so I'll be satisfied if I can get back in at 3960 (a 50% retracement off the current wave).


Have a great week!

 

[JTH]

Re: MONTHS

Good morning

Futures have been positive this morning about +.25%

On Monday the S&P 500 closed a consecutive 4 days in a row. From the previous 21 years, this happened 6.6% of the time. Today's odds of 5 days up in a row are 3%, but if you believe this is the equivalent of flipping a coin, then the daily odds are 54%



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The S&P 500's weighted Top-50 is approaching overbought/embedded levels (in reference to the 10/50/100/200 SMAs). 58% are trading above all four SMAs, and 98% are trading above the 10-SMA, that's pretty darn good.



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Over the past 5 days, the S&P 500's weighted Top-50 has contributed 1.42% of the S&P 500's 3.69% gain.

 

[JTH]

Re: MONTHS

Good morning

The pre-markets have a slight negative bias about -.20%

On Tuesday the S&P 500 sold off until 12:00 then stabilized, I sort of expect the same behavior today. The 30-minute chart shows we have 3 small unfilled gaps below us, ranging from -1.23% to -3.17%. A test of 3970 would fill all 3 gaps on the 30-minute chart, while a test of 3979.20 fills the gaps on the Daily (conflicting data).

SPX 30-Minute


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The Daily chart shows the past 3 days, we have been hugging the October-December trendline.

SPX Daily