JTH's Account Talk

[tsptalk]

Re: Sunday: Small pullback

Yes, I've noticed that fading the crossover for a short term counter move works, but only short-term. It's because to get to the crossover, the chart is usually somewhat overbought (or oversold on a downward crossover.)

Good morning

Here's a good example of why I don't care to trade based on moving average crossovers. The 50/200 SMA Golden Cross marked the most recent high, to the exact day. Since this golden cross, we've retraced -6.37%

 

[JTH]

Good morning (Post 1 of 3)

The AutoTracker allocations changed little this week, overall the board gained 1.43% YTD from last week. The Top-50 impressively gained 2.31% this week, with 10 members outperforming all the funds.



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After the recent 2-day 3% rally off the bottom, the S&P 500's weighted Top-50 has rebounded back over the moving averages with 16 of 50 are now trading above all SMAs. But the 50-SMA is still weak, with 29 of 50 trading below the SMA by an average -3.31%

 

[JTH]

Post 2 of 3

The Day of Weeks stats remain weak (under the 54% 21-year daily win ratio). Recently Tuesday has been the worst, with the last 3 having closed down. Friday has a 64% win ratio, but the last 3 of 5 have closed down.



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The bad news first. While the recent 2-day 3% gain was impressive, looking at the weekly charts, we still have 4 lower highs and 3 lower lows.



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The good news, we've closed back above the Green-dotted October trendline, the 200-SMA, and the 50-SMA.

 

[JTH]

Post 3 of 3

The S&P 500 is trading above the 10/50/200 SMA, with the 10-SMA we are in the top 20% percentile (column 9).



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Perhaps my favorite chart this week. With the 54% 21-year daily win ratio as a baseline, we can see when the S&P 500 trades above the 10/50/200/500 SMAs, the win ratios go up. In particular, when trading above the 10-SMA, the win ratio is a staggering 68%.

In addition, when the index is trading below these moving averages, the negative average (average of all negative gains) is worse than the 21-year baseline's -84% average.

 

[JTH]

Re: Sunday: Bears take the lead

Good morning

Not much to report, for the AutoTracker, I'm looking for an entry lower than the previous 3970 exit, the lower the better. In the meantime I've been focused on the recent TSP/IRA rollover, getting things allocated, looking for entries. It's a relief to have the archaic IFT restrictions removed, I'm currently sitting 70% short-term bonds, with the rest dipped in Value and Sector ETFs.

As for the S&P 500's weighted Top-50 and it's SMAs, it's treading water with 32% (red slice) under all SMAs and 22% (blue slice) above all SMAs.

 

[JTH]

TGIF

Good morning

Comparing this March with the previous 63 months of March, 23 of 63 months closed down for an average -2.76%. Within this context, that would take us down to 3861, about -1.25% off current prices.



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The S&P 500 is under the 10/50/200/500 SMAs. On a percentile range scale, all SMAs are in the bottom 74% (or worse). I've reserved the bottom 90% as an indication of being oversold (we haven't gotten there yet).



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The S&P 500's weighted Top-50 is the weakest I've seen (since recently tracked). 44% (or 22 stocks) are below their 10/50/100/200 SMAs. Only 10% are above all SMAs, those 5 stocks are AAPL, JPM, AVGO, CSCO, VZ.

 

[JTH]

Re: Sunday: Bears take the lead

Based on the pain we've already absorbed, I like these levels. IFT EoB today 40G/60C (paper trading). If we go lower than today's close, I'll use the 2nd IFT for another 15% C dip.

 

[WorkFE]

I'm on board with that.

 

[JTH]

Re: TGIF

Comparing this March with the previous 63 months of March, 23 of 63 months closed down for an average -2.76%. Within this context, that would take us down to 3861, about -1.25% off current prices.

Achievement unlocked




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Progress report, from 13-JAN

For myself, with the G-Fund popping out pennies, I'm satisfied enough to sit this out while looking to re-enter the C-Fund 3-6% below my previous exit. Good luck!

So I've entered 60% C-Fund at 3861 which is -2.83% under the previous exit, just shy of the 3-6% target. There was a lot of missed potential in January, but I wasn't able to get the lower price I wanted, so the gains were missed.



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Currently 12.9% of market time spent in the C-Fund, the goal is to exit with a 1-2% gain, then head back to the sidelines before reaching the 50% time-spent-in the C-Fund mark.

 

[JTH]

Re: Sunday: Small pullback

Good morning

Starting off the week, participants have pushed some chips into the G/F-Funds, while the Top-50 are 67.4% G-Fund. Overall, the board lost 3.5% YTD.



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The Day of week stats remain weak, we are still under the 54% 21-Year Daily win ratio. Last 3 Mondays closed up, while the last 3 Tuesdays closed down.


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On Friday, the S&P 500 closed -2.82% below its 10-SMA, this is in the bottom 94.7% percentile of its range, placing it within column 2 of the previous 21-year historical average. While we are strongly under the SMAs, we are not what I would call extremely oversold (yet).

The 50 SMA is in the bottom 87%
The 200 SMA is in the bottom 79%
The 500 SMA is in the bottom 86%



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Lastly, in reference to the major moving averages, the S&P 500's weighted Top-50 (52% weight of the index) is also very weak, with a combined score of 23%. We have 26 stocks trading below the 10/50/100/200 SMAs. Only 2 (JPM & AVGO) are trading above all the SMAs.

 

[JTH]

Re: Sunday: Small pullback

Good morning

Since my cash reserves are at 67%, outside of TSP, I'm buying into this weakness and will continue to do so via position sizing in percentage increments.

Looking at the 2009 crash, from top to bottom, we lost -57.69%, in today's terms that would take us down to 2039 (below the pandemic low). Perhaps not likely to happen, but then again, it's happened before.

In 2001 we lost -50.50%
In 1974 we lost -49.93%
In 1932 we lost -86.10%

 

[JTH]

Good morning

Going back to Aug, Monday had the 3rd largest volume.

 

[JTH]

Good morning

Going back to Aug, Monday had the 3rd largest volume.

With the futures down hard, and yesterday's rejection of the 200 SMA, it's not looking too well at the moment. I can say there are many times, when a large spike in negative volume, means the sellers are exhausted, and the bottom is near. But sometimes the bottom is 2-3 days away from the large volume spike, we shall see. This whole 3800 level is a point of contention, if you recall, in DEC/JAN we spent about 13 days in this price box.

 

[JTH]

Good morning

Nothing significant to report. Roughly speaking. thus far 2023 is in a 10% price box, of which we are 4.37% into this box. So it might be a 5-6% gain to revisit the previous Feb top, or a 4% loss to retest the bottom. In a bull market, I'd gladly accept that risk/reward setup, and even in a bear market one might argue we've baked in some decent bad news. For myself, I think there's plenty of time to wait this out, so I'll stay mostly risk off.

 

[WorkFE]

I think there's plenty of time to wait this out, so I'll stay mostly risk off.

I think with the G Fund currently at 4.125% Safety is a good play.

 

[JTH]

Re: TGIF

Good morning

Friday saw the highest volume recorded since May 2016, perhaps the smart money knows something and has taken precautions. Sometimes I find it more difficult to trust volume on the indexes. Here's a 30-minute chart showing a huge volume spike within the last 30 minutes. It could be an erroneous error, I have no idea, we shall see.

SPX 30-Minute



SPX DAILY VOLUME


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As for the AutoTracker, it is largely unchanged from the previous week. Even with the volatile up & down days last week, participants only lost -.19% for the week. The Top-50 shows the G-Funders are the looking great. Even for myself, the 40% G-fund allocation has thrust me into the Top-50, but I could easily drop back into the 200s on a day's notice



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The S&P 500's weighted Top-50 remains weak, but does not look to be in an oversold position. Apple, Microsoft, Berkshire Class B, Tesla, JPMorgan, Broadcom, Cisco, Wells Fargo, Verizon, & Netflix are all trading above their 10/50/100/200 SMAs. These 10 companies have a combined 19.5% weighting in the Index.

 

[JTH]

Re: Sunday: Bears take the lead

Good morning (Post 1 of 2)

For those of us who invest in sectors, as of Friday, there's been a significant re-alignment between Tech and Finance. I've always disliked the fact that Mastercard and Visa were in Tech, well now they've been moved into Finance, perhaps where they belong.

LINK: [FONT=Conv_Akk_Pro]Several Information Technology Companies Will Move to Other Sectors[/FONT]

"[FONT=Conv_Akk_Pro]After the close on March 17, 2023, [/FONT]changes to the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS®) structure[FONT=Conv_Akk_Pro] will go into effect in GICS Direct and in S&P DJI’s indices. These changes will affect most sectors and will change what it means to be sector neutral. "[/FONT]

 

[JTH]

The Day of Weak stats largely remains below the 21-Year 54% Daily win ratio. If we look at the Average of all losses across Thur/Fri we can see they are worse than the 21-Yr -84% avg.

Last 2 Friday's closed down more than -1%, last 3 of 4 closed down more than -1%, last 4 of 7 closed down more than -1%, and Thursdays don't look much better.

​

 

[JTH]

Re: TGIF

Good morning

If I IFT the 60C back to G, then the market will dump me on my head at the close. ;damnit

Regardless, here's a minor update to the historical 63-Year months of March correlated with 2023's March.

On 10-March we closed at the 3861 level (the average of all 23 losing months of March).
On 21-March we closed at the 4009 level (the average of all 63 months of March closes).

 

[JTH]

Re: Sunday: Small pullback

Sorry if I tank the markets today...

IFT 100G EoB today (Paper Trading).