JTH's Account Talk

[JTH]

Good morning

For trading day 11, we closed back above the bottom -26%

 

[shitepoke]

good call on equities so far JTH...

 

[FAB1]

Something in Tom's daily comments got me to thinking...Remember when we were kids we would play "pile on"?

This is what will keep the rally alive from here on out, if investors keep jumping in... afraid of missing the precious gains.

Only in THIS game, last man on the pile -- LOSES!

So, dear investor what will you do, is there still a lot of room to move up?

BTW: that guy JTH is low as you can get!

 

[JTH]

BTW: that guy JTH is low as you can get!

Yes, but can't seem to get on top of the couger, and you're on top of me, so I'm not winning...yet

 

[FAB1]

Yes, but can't seem to get on top of the couger, and you're on top of me, so I'm not winning...yet

I see your price objective at the top - hope we make it that far!

 

[JTH]

Hi Fab

I'm not examining price levels, looking for an upper target, or calling a bottom here. My goal was simple, "out perform the C-Fund" and I've achieved this goal in the short-term. At one point, I was trailing the C-Fund by almost 4%, so I consider it a small (but important) victory. For now, I'm looking to exit on a 2-3% bounce.

So which one of you is gonna jump in first...

So which one of you is gonna jump out first...

 

[rktect1]

So which one of you is gonna jump out first...

Who are you talking to?

Not a good sign.

 

[JTH]

So which one of you is gonna jump out first...

Who are you talking to?

Not a good sign.

Me

IFT EoB today from 100C to 100G

 

[JTH]

Me

IFT EoB today from 100C to 100G

JTH-ESD, IFT Today, from 100C to 100G

 

[shitepoke]

jumped a bit- 60G/25S/15C

 

[ravensfan]

Me

IFT EoB today from 100C to 100G

Nice move Jason. That was a great play! Congrats!!!

 

[JTH]

Nice move Jason. That was a great play! Congrats!!!

Thank you kind sir.

If we close in the green today, then I've met about 2/3rds of the price objective, meaning the plan executed precisely as I had hoped. IMHO, looking at my statistical data and the current charts, when we close out the month, I do not believe we will close above the Feb highs. Thus, with the risk to reward ratio (as I see it), I felt it was in my best interest to take the exit. We'll see how that decision looks at the end of the month.

 

[rspring]

JTH-ESD, IFT Today, from 100C to 100G

Well played my friend. I wish I would have been on that ride with you. Hopefully there will be another opportunity to enter next week. Keep those of us with another IFT informed. Thanks

 

[ravensfan]

Thank you kind sir.

If we close in the green today, then I've met about 2/3rds of the price objective, meaning the plan executed precisely as I had hoped. IMHO, looking at my statistical data and the current charts, when we close out the month, I do not believe we will close above the Feb highs. Thus, with the risk to reward ratio (as I see it), I felt it was in my best interest to take the exit. We'll see how that decision looks at the end of the month.

Well you certainly have a big hole to dig out of and you seem to be well on your way. I went back and looked at the last time the S&P closed up 3, 4 and 5 days straight. They are few and far between. With that said, I'm thinking we will get another pull back before we head back up. I've still got an IFT left for February so I'll be sitting on the ark waiting for the opportunity.

BTW, when I saw Whipsaw cancel his IFT today because you exited, I thought we should change his ark name to mocking jay. What do you think?

 

[Bquat]

Thank you kind sir.

If we close in the green today, then I've met about 2/3rds of the price objective, meaning the plan executed precisely as I had hoped. IMHO, looking at my statistical data and the current charts, when we close out the month, I do not believe we will close above the Feb highs. Thus, with the risk to reward ratio (as I see it), I felt it was in my best interest to take the exit. We'll see how that decision looks at the end of the month.

If we close at the top no three white soldiers pattern?

 

[JTH]

Well you certainly have a big hole to dig out of and you seem to be well on your way. I went back and looked at the last time the S&P closed up 3, 4 and 5 days straight. They are few and far between. With that said, I'm thinking we will get another pull back before we head back up. I've still got an IFT left for February so I'll be sitting on the ark waiting for the opportunity.

BTW, when I saw Whipsaw cancel his IFT today because you exited, I thought we should change his ark name to mocking jay. What do you think?

Thanks friend and you are right, the stats are fairly low for how many days the market will close up in a row. It burned when you told me "Well you certainly have a big hole to dig out of" but you are correct, and it was also 100% my fault for not being in tune with the markets, at the time. But after finally moving into my apartment, getting my PC monitors back, and getting a regular home routine, I'm starting to align myself with the markets.

Other great news, I'll be paying off my TSP loan this month, in one large lump sum, meaning I'll be dropping a boat-load of cash into my account all at once...

 

[JTH]

If we close at the top no three white soldiers pattern?

Not to be picky, but the traditional pattern (as I know it) calls for the 3 candles to overlap one another. In this specific case, we have 2 concurrent runaway gaps. Now I can't speak to the gaps, this would require further investigation, but I must admit, I'm not a gap specialist.

Three White Soldiers

 

[FAB1]

Me

IFT EoB today from 100C to 100G

I can respect that, you followed through with a predetermined plan.

That's IFT #2 right?

You're done for Feb now.

I am thinking (I do that now and then) that SPX has some more room to run and a Oct-like scenario may play out.

ema 50 is just overhead, unlikely we will get that far today so some sideways motion could come into play coaxing more people on the sidelines to join a move upward above that resistance.

In any case during this strength we should see apparent weakness in the market leaders (and bear market indexes) before the SPX gives up the ghost.

I would really like to get out of negative territory and have some cushion (against future goofs trades)

So, wish me and others of like mind - Good Luck! :nuts:

 

[JTH]

I can respect that, you followed through with a predetermined plan.

That's IFT #2 right?

You're done for Feb now.

I am thinking (I do that now and then) that SPX has some more room to run and a Oct-like scenario may play out.

ema 50 is just overhead, unlikely we will get that far today so some sideways motion could come into play coaxing more people on the sidelines to join a move upward above that resistance.

In any case during this strength we should see apparent weakness in the market leaders (and bear market indexes) before the SPX gives up the ghost.

I would really like to get out of negative territory and have some cushion (against future goofs trades)

So, wish me and others of like mind - Good Luck! :nuts:

I do wish everyone the best, and I am not declaring the top is in, I just need to see more evidence, to keep me in.

I want to see SPX/W4500 establish a higher low, I think this is highly probable given the long tail up signals which where generated on the ALPAFS today.

I also want to see a continued surge of performance in the small caps, which we've seen over the past 3 days.

If we do close above the Feb highs, this should give us the momentum needed for a March rally, now that would be awesome!

 

[FAB1]

Not to be picky, but the traditional pattern (as I know it) calls for the 3 candles to overlap one another. In this specific case, we have 2 concurrent runaway gaps. Now I can't speak to the gaps, this would require further investigation, but I must admit, I'm not a gap specialist.

Three White Soldiers

According to that page, the following would indicate the "gaps" disqualify the recent formation.

Each of the three candles is white, tall, opens within the body of the prior candle and closes higher, with a short upper shadow (meaning each white candle closes near the high).