JTH's Account Talk

[FogSailing]

JTH: My apologies for posting on your blog..I meant to include this earlier. Some blog information as FYI. Supports the Debbie Downer theory...

https://www.tradefollowers.com/blog/no-believers/

FS

 

[JTH]

I'll be watching to see if the 1st-3 days of Feb close up or down...

 

[JTH]

JTH-ALPAFS moves from 100C to 100G

SPX/W4500/NDX flipped over to a sell, while TRAN is at a Triple Bottom

 

[JTH]

Also moving my JTH account from 100C to 100G

I've seen enough damage to believe it's best to sit it out and look for a lower re-entry.

Best of luck...Jason

 

[JTH]

Going back 66 years to 1950, there have been 29 occasions where the 1st-3 day's price performance of February were down. Listed below are Day 4's results...

 

[burrocrat]

this is jth's thread and i come here for jth's excellent charting and analysis, but the coffee is running bitter this morning.

is there nowhere else these things could be publically discussed? since it all seems to be all about it, how about it's public thread?

could a moderator please move the recent comments ever since about jth's last post in jth's thread to a more appropriate venue? thanks.

 

[JTH]

Here's a preview of what the 6th week of February has done, when the 5th week (1st week of February) closes up or down.

SPX does not look good, but W4500 does much better.

 

[JTH]

As Tom has mentioned in the Market Talk thread, the TRAN is on fire today.

On the ALPAFS SPX/W4500/TRAN/NDX indexes, Tran is the only one which is bullish.

Please keep in mind I do not use traditional PnF methods, on my scale, 1 box = .25% and 4 boxes trigger a column.

On this timeframe we can see TRAN has a Triple Bottom (That's good, we usually don't see more than 2-3 of these patterns across 50 columns)

Also, we have our 4th Double Top Breakout (That's good, but not so rare)

Problem is, that on the long-term scale we've only retraced 25% of the downslide.

 

[Whipsaw]

Thanks JTH! With the bullish aspects of the triple bottom, and the four double top breakouts, how is the 25% retracement a detractor? Does that indicate we could go down further until we reach a higher level of retracement? Thanks again...

Whipsaw

 

[airlift]

Thanks JTH! With the bullish aspects of the triple bottom, and the four double top breakouts, how is the 25% retracement a detractor? Does that indicate we could go down further until we reach a higher level of retracement? Thanks again...

Whipsaw

Whipsaw, thanks for asking. JTH, it is an excellent question, which may shed more clarity on the potential direction of the market. Thanks.

 

[JTH]

Whipsaw, thanks for asking. JTH, it is an excellent question, which may shed more clarity on the potential direction of the market. Thanks.

Thanks JTH! With the bullish aspects of the triple bottom, and the four double top breakouts, how is the 25% retracement a detractor? Does that indicate we could go down further until we reach a higher level of retracement? Thanks again...

Whipsaw

For myself, I tend to judge the waves of price action by the strength of their replacements. I feel that a 50% retracement is the minimum starting point by which a reversal is triggered, and so with the TRAN, a 25% long-term retracement does not impress me. I also want to add, that within the short-term, the 4 major indexes I track (SPX/W4500/TRAN/NDX) they are not in agreement with each other and because the TRAN has not been a leader during these "fade the rallies" I cannot support a bullish view at this time (even in the short-term)

 

[JTH]

For the S&P 500, over the past 66 years, on the weekly timeframe, for 2016 there has only been one other year that followed a similar path, that year was 2008.
Week 6 in 2008 closed up 1.40%


Trading the Stats:*Week 6

 

[Tsunami]

For the S&P 500, over the past 66 years, on the weekly timeframe, for 2016 there has only been one other year that followed a similar path, that year was 2008.
Week 6 in 2008 closed up 1.40%

I hope that pattern holds, and I see that week 7 in 2008 was up as well. I was travelling yesterday and unable to reconsider and cancel my early morning decision to go 100% C. It was based on the futures being up at the time, plus the Elliott wave patterns suggested another 3-leg rally was ready to blast off to the upper 1900s (completing a "double-zig-zag" rally), plus a hunch that the moon guy would be right... I figured the waves supported a rally to his 2/18 high date and maybe even 2/26 was possible...

https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2016/02/01/lt-wave-for-february-3/

The strength of the Friday sell-off leaves me little confidence that rally will pan out though. Maybe I'll get lucky and vault up the tracker above the F-funders, but I'm not confident about it. I fear the odds are better for an even bigger sell-off Monday then a continued sell-off down into the 1700s. There's a lot of that fear out there though, so maybe the contrary view will work out for those in equities.

 

[FogSailing]

Hi TS. I saw your move and almost followed you but at the time SPX was at around 1878 and dropping so I decided to "very light" F Fund (only 20%). If the market can escape any "real bad news events" on Monday and Tuesday, I can certainly see the market rallying up at least 1901 if not higher. I was just following the trend in my decision. Because of the IFT deadline didn't have the chance to see whether the 1872 line in the sand was going to hold for the 4th time...

Best of luck next week.

FS

 

[JTH]

I hope that pattern holds, and I see that week 7 in 2008 was up as well. I was travelling yesterday and unable to reconsider and cancel my early morning decision to go 100% C. It was based on the futures being up at the time, plus the Elliott wave patterns suggested another 3-leg rally was ready to blast off to the upper 1900s (completing a "double-zig-zag" rally), plus a hunch that the moon guy would be right... I figured the waves supported a rally to his 2/18 high date and maybe even 2/26 was possible...

https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2016/02/01/lt-wave-for-february-3/

The strength of the Friday sell-off leaves me little confidence that rally will pan out though. Maybe I'll get lucky and vault up the tracker above the F-funders, but I'm not confident about it. I fear the odds are better for an even bigger sell-off Monday then a continued sell-off down into the 1700s. There's a lot of that fear out there though, so maybe the contrary view will work out for those in equities.

Hi TS. I saw your move and almost followed you but at the time SPX was at around 1878 and dropping so I decided to "very light" F Fund (only 20%). If the market can escape any "real bad news events" on Monday and Tuesday, I can certainly see the market rallying up at least 1901 if not higher. I was just following the trend in my decision. Because of the IFT deadline didn't have the chance to see whether the 1872 line in the sand was going to hold for the 4th time...

Best of luck next week.

FS

My personal belief, this is a bear market and while I'm not optimistic about the market's condition, I am optimistic we can out perform it. Sometimes it's more fun to win the game when you're already behind...

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

My personal belief, this is a bear market and while I'm not optimistic about the market's condition, I am optimistic we can out perform it. Sometimes it's more fun to win the game when you're already behind...

Awesome statement!

 

[daze823]

Maybe I'll get lucky and vault up the tracker above the F-funders, but I'm not confident about it?

Haha, just what I was thinking, how often is the goal to beat the F fund.

 

[FogSailing]

JTH: I haven't had a lot of success yet in 2016. I can't understand it because I'm using my "state of the market technology (or SMT)" for graphing and predicting oils impact on the market...

View attachment 36996

FS

 

[JTH]

JTH: I haven't had a lot of success yet in 2016. I can't understand it because I'm using my "state of the market technology (or SMT)" for graphing and predicting oils impact on the market...

View attachment 36996

FS

Your chart is on target, great call on today's price action!

 

[JTH]

I do hope we aren't forming a long-term continuation pattern, because 1677 is ugly...