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JTH's Account Talk
- Thread starter JTH
- Start date
JTH
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 1,047
ALPAFS
1) The yellow-arrow 1943-1978 price range, is a 25% to 50% retrace of the most recent column of Xs, this is where I'd expect the index to build its next base.
2) The red arrow is where ALPAFS exited at 1987. In theory, the system needs to take a lower entry than the previous exit, to take a profit over the index.
3) If the X range continues to expand, then the yellow arrow will overtake the red arrow, thus reducing the statistical edge needed to overtake the index.
4) The current X column is 29 boxes or 7.25% this is the 2nd largest of the 50 X columns displayed on this chart.
5) The largest X column on this chart is 41 boxes or 10.25% this price range was produced from Oct-Nov 2014
Here's the rub, ALPAFS did not exit based on this chart, it exited based on 20+ box reversals from W4500/Tran/NDX but those indexes ended up giving us a shallow retracement of 4-6 Os, then creating fresh Double Top Breakouts, thus they may have already begun to build their base. At this point, ALPAFS will not chase the rally, instead it will wait for a proper pullback to the 25% to 50% range. If the primary S&P 500 index does not give us the proper pullback, then it will chase on the next column of Xs.
1) The yellow-arrow 1943-1978 price range, is a 25% to 50% retrace of the most recent column of Xs, this is where I'd expect the index to build its next base.
2) The red arrow is where ALPAFS exited at 1987. In theory, the system needs to take a lower entry than the previous exit, to take a profit over the index.
3) If the X range continues to expand, then the yellow arrow will overtake the red arrow, thus reducing the statistical edge needed to overtake the index.
4) The current X column is 29 boxes or 7.25% this is the 2nd largest of the 50 X columns displayed on this chart.
5) The largest X column on this chart is 41 boxes or 10.25% this price range was produced from Oct-Nov 2014
Here's the rub, ALPAFS did not exit based on this chart, it exited based on 20+ box reversals from W4500/Tran/NDX but those indexes ended up giving us a shallow retracement of 4-6 Os, then creating fresh Double Top Breakouts, thus they may have already begun to build their base. At this point, ALPAFS will not chase the rally, instead it will wait for a proper pullback to the 25% to 50% range. If the primary S&P 500 index does not give us the proper pullback, then it will chase on the next column of Xs.
JTH
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 1,047
Re: 4th QUARTER
Evolving Statistical Data, it does not look at tops of bottoms, it follows seasonal data
Evolving Statistical Data, it does not look at tops of bottoms, it follows seasonal data
JTH
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 1,047
Re: PRE VS. POST IFT
From my Blog Trading the Stats: Week 41
Useless Data (strength follows strength)
___
From my Blog Trading the Stats: Week 41
Useless Data (strength follows strength)
___
Over the past 788 months, the average monthly return is .69%
Like this month, from 1950, there have only been 16 months which have started out with trading days 1-3 up, 4th day down, and days 5-7 up
Of those 16 occasions, 15 closed positive, with a total average monthly return of 4.18%
The one month which did close down was -.10%
JTH
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 1,047
Re: PRE VS. POST IFT
I love the Tranny, she speaks the truth (even when the other indexes refuse to listen)
Side-by-side YTD performance of SPX/TRAN shows us just how far in advance there was trouble brewing in the markets
I love the Tranny, she speaks the truth (even when the other indexes refuse to listen)
Side-by-side YTD performance of SPX/TRAN shows us just how far in advance there was trouble brewing in the markets
JTH
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 1,047
Re: 4th QUARTER
If you click on the PNF Links, you will see that in relation to the S&P 500, the other Indexs show less strength over the past 10 columns.
While the S&P 500 has created spread double top within the yellow box, the other indexes have not reached those comparative levels.
Bottom line, when large caps lead the markets, is it really a legitimate rally?
W4500/TRAN/NASDAQ 100
If you click on the PNF Links, you will see that in relation to the S&P 500, the other Indexs show less strength over the past 10 columns.
While the S&P 500 has created spread double top within the yellow box, the other indexes have not reached those comparative levels.
Bottom line, when large caps lead the markets, is it really a legitimate rally?
W4500/TRAN/NASDAQ 100
FogSailing
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 61
Re: 4th QUARTER
Thanks JTH. A great question.
One of the reasons I love this forum is because there are so many "rationale" minds providing their independent viewpoint and they are all worth considering. The one thing I am learning is that you have to separate reality from emotion. For example, someone recently wrote that "We can find plenty of fault in the FED but investors and fund managers just as much. The writing is everywhere and has been visible for a long time. Moreover the Feds history of creating and mismanaging bubbles is well documented and recent at that. So to place so much faith in the FED or other central bankers or that the government of China is truthful about their data or that corporate earnings are good (when clearly they are not; and that’s with the aid of massive buyback mind you) is merely a reflection of greed and how that greed makes you completely unintelligent in your positive macro stance. Then again maybe investors and managers are just plain stupid."
The benefit of this forum is that we're not trying to sell anything to anyone. We're all just trying to have adequate awareness to support our investment decisions and make an honest buck. The comments and analysis provided here are worth the investment of time, and my sincere appreciation to you, and the many others who work to help provide meaningful data to make good decisions.
FS
Thanks JTH. A great question.
One of the reasons I love this forum is because there are so many "rationale" minds providing their independent viewpoint and they are all worth considering. The one thing I am learning is that you have to separate reality from emotion. For example, someone recently wrote that "We can find plenty of fault in the FED but investors and fund managers just as much. The writing is everywhere and has been visible for a long time. Moreover the Feds history of creating and mismanaging bubbles is well documented and recent at that. So to place so much faith in the FED or other central bankers or that the government of China is truthful about their data or that corporate earnings are good (when clearly they are not; and that’s with the aid of massive buyback mind you) is merely a reflection of greed and how that greed makes you completely unintelligent in your positive macro stance. Then again maybe investors and managers are just plain stupid."
The benefit of this forum is that we're not trying to sell anything to anyone. We're all just trying to have adequate awareness to support our investment decisions and make an honest buck. The comments and analysis provided here are worth the investment of time, and my sincere appreciation to you, and the many others who work to help provide meaningful data to make good decisions.
FS
RealMoneyIssues
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 101
Mcqlives
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 24
Re: 4th QUARTER
Greedy is more of a scrooge type of mine-mine-mine and I won't ever give it up mentality...money hungry is just always being on the look-out for ways to make more! I'm sure there is a political comparison to make there but I'm not going to make it!
Greedy is more of a scrooge type of mine-mine-mine and I won't ever give it up mentality...money hungry is just always being on the look-out for ways to make more! I'm sure there is a political comparison to make there but I'm not going to make it!
O
OBXTrader
Guest
Greatings from vacation in Japan. Yes I am in Tokyo visiting family. Such negativity from TSP Talk reached me here.
Since I bought in at a decent price to L2020, I will let it ride and follow my own JTH ESD. Two down days and low price swings I will hang with seasonality and save my IFT since its only 2020 money.
Trade safe.
Since I bought in at a decent price to L2020, I will let it ride and follow my own JTH ESD. Two down days and low price swings I will hang with seasonality and save my IFT since its only 2020 money.
Trade safe.
DreamboatAnnie
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 712
