JTH's Account Talk

[nasa1974]

Sure wish that I had listen to the person who siad, "I should have sticky pants and leave my money in S and I, vice moving to F with on vacation for a week". Any how, I am back and Mexico (Cozumel) was great. However, on the way back we got stuck in Baltimore Washington International (BWI) for 2 days due to the weather. No hotels available, had to sleep and hang out at the Airport. Oh Boy Oh Joy! That sucked!

Sorry wvango. Not a way to end a vacation. Heading off to a Caribbean cruise in March. Looking forward to getting out of this cold and snow.

 

[wvango]

Sorry wvango. Not a way to end a vacation. Heading off to a Caribbean cruise in March. Looking forward to getting out of this cold and snow.

Definately not a way to end it. Have a good one in the Caribbean. Going to the Bahamas in May for sons wedding for 7 days. Going to try to end that one on a good note this time.

 

[nasa1974]

Definately not a way to end it. Have a good one in the Caribbean. Going to the Bahamas in May for sons wedding for 7 days. Going to try to end that one on a good note this time.

Weather should be less of an issue. At least no snow storms. :laugh:

 

[pmaloney]

I got back from a week in St. Thomas and it was tough getting back to -9 degrees but I'm thankful that we got lucky and got through out-bound airline drama with connecting flights both going and coming. Man, you never can tell how things will work out especially when you plan months ahead. Life and the stock market. The good, the bad and the ugly. :smile:

 

[airlift]

I tend to look for confirmation on more than 1 timeframe, as it stands now, off the 10 Feb bottom, the current angle of ascension is sustainable, when judging who's controlling prices, I'll be assessing this specific wave. I also show we haven't confirmed a close above 2100 on the 30-minute scale, this is the area I'll be looking for either a breakout, or a bull trap.

JTH, can you please update your analysis regarding the direction of the SPX. Assuming that today's price closes above 2100 on the 30-minute scale, would this satisfy the price performance level sufficiently to seriously consider it a reasonably good entry point? Thanks in advance, and enjoy a good weekend!

 

[JTH]

JTH, can you please update your analysis regarding the direction of the SPX. Assuming that today's price closes above 2100 on the 30-minute scale, would this satisfy the price performance level sufficiently to seriously consider it a reasonably good entry point? Thanks in advance, and enjoy a good weekend!

It depends on where you started, I never considered any of this a bad entry point, my own focus was on locking in profits. SPX/EMW broke and closed above the price consolidation today, NDX did that 2 days ago, has now closed 8 straight days up. Buyers controlled prices all week, this latest close may bring in another round of buyers.

 

[airlift]

It depends on where you started, I never considered any of this a bad entry point, my own focus was on locking in profits. SPX/EMW broke and closed above the price consolidation today, NDX did that 2 days ago, has now closed 8 straight days up. Buyers controlled prices all week, this latest close may bring in another round of buyers.

JTH, I only want to clarify. Since you had stated that 2100 area would be the area wlhere you would be looking for "either a breakout, or a bull trap", what do you have to see in order to classify this, or the next move, as a bull trap or breakout? Or do you think that it is necessary to wait for confirmation of some sort or a couple of days closing above the 2100 price level? Tia.

 

[JTH]

JTH, I only want to clarify. Since you had stated that 2100 area would be the area wlhere you would be looking for "either a breakout, or a bull trap", what do you have to see in order to classify this, or the next move, as a bull trap or breakout? Or do you think that it is necessary to wait for confirmation of some sort or a couple of days closing above the 2100 price level? Tia.

There should be a distinction here, I do not make IFTs based off 30 minute charts, I use them to watch the subtle price levels, to understand where the finer points of support/resistance are. A bull trap is generally seen as a breakout that then reverses, which is why folks look for confirmation before making an entry. On the Daily scale, SPX has not provided confirmation, but if you look at the other indexes, you can see confirmation in the NASDAQ 100. If you're asking me to make a call on what I think the markets will do, I can only tell you that I'm managing my trade based on my methodology and do not wish to apply this analysis to anyone else because I do not know how much risk they are willing to accept or how much money they have to trade with.

Roughly speaking, for myself, I took a calculated risk that I would gain .20% in the F-Fund and would gain a 1-2% edge over my last exit from the S-Fund. Instead, I lost about .40% and missed out on 1.5% gains, that's what tends to happen when you trade against a bull market, you are either a hero or zero. So the trade thus far has not worked out as planned, but I've no time for regret, the plan didn't work, it's nothing personal, sometimes the decisions we make do not yield the desired results. If I have a methodology that I believe to be valid, then trading with consistency is extremely important and should eventually get the performance I desire.

 

[airlift]

There should be a distinction here, I do not make IFTs based off 30 minute charts, I use them to watch the subtle price levels, to understand where the finer points of support/resistance are. A bull trap is generally seen as a breakout that then reverses, which is why folks look for confirmation before making an entry. On the Daily scale, SPX has not provided confirmation, but if you look at the other indexes, you can see confirmation in the NASDAQ 100. If you're asking me to make a call on what I think the markets will do, I can only tell you that I'm managing my trade based on my methodology and do not wish to apply this analysis to anyone else because I do not know how much risk they are willing to accept or how much money they have to trade with.

Roughly speaking, for myself, I took a calculated risk that I would gain .20% in the F-Fund and would gain a 1-2% edge over my last exit from the S-Fund. Instead, I lost about .40% and missed out on 1.5% gains, that's what tends to happen when you trade against a bull market, you are either a hero or zero. So the trade thus far has not worked out as planned, but I've no time for regret, the plan didn't work, it's nothing personal, sometimes the decisions we make do not yield the desired results. If I have a methodology that I believe to be valid, then trading with consistency is extremely important and should eventually get the performance I desire.

JTH, this is a very reasoned explanation, by which now I am in a better position to understand. Any risk is at each person's responsonsibility. Thank you

 

[JTH]

PnF: Cousin Renko

 

[alevin]

The Renko description and examples are great, JTH. Thanks for the education! I stumbled across Renkos a couple years back and toyed a little, but never really understood them and didn't know how to use effectively so my interest in them faded into the background. But somehow even so, I relate to them better than I ever have to PnF charts.

 

[JTH]

The Renko description and examples are great, JTH. Thanks for the education! I stumbled across Renkos a couple years back and toyed a little, but never really understood them and didn't know how to use effectively so my interest in them faded into the background. But somehow even so, I relate to them better than I ever have to PnF charts.

Lol, I doubt many folks will read that blog, the charts are simple, but it was a bit "wordy" I felt if at least a handful of folks understood it, then it was worth the effort. Not only that, but I get to learn something in the process too, so it was time well spent.

Thank you Alevin, I felt the same way about Renko the first time a played with it, and the same for PnFs, it took me a long time to venture back into them. Like you, after having gone through just about every style there is, it's only now that I've come to appreciate the simplicity in things like this. Renko, I think is a great compromise when a user wants to "remove time" and "focus on price". Compared with PnF and candlesticks, it's beautifully simplistic and allows the trader an opportunity to setup clear and precise trading parameters.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Lol, I doubt many folks will read that blog, the charts are simple, but it was a bit "wordy" I felt if at least a handful of folks understood it, then it was worth the effort. Not only that, but I get to learn something in the process too, so it was time well spent.

Thank you Alevin, I felt the same way about Renko the first time a played with it, and the same for PnFs, it took me a long time to venture back into them. Like you, after having gone through just about every style there is, it's only now that I've come to appreciate the simplicity in things like this. Renko, I think is a great compromise when a user wants to "remove time" and "focus on price". Compared with PnF and candlesticks, it's beautifully simplistic and allows the trader an opportunity to setup clear and precise trading parameters.

Hi JTH,I read it but would need to spend more time understanding it. Thank you for putting this out there for us!

 

[JTH]

Trading the Stats: Week 8

 

[JTH]

Charting: Complacency

 

[JTH]

Nevermind

 

[Frixxxx]

Nevermind

Disregarding.....

 

[Bquat]

Nevermind

Neverminding

 

[JTH]

IFT EoB today, 100S

 

[JamesE]

Very interesting Jason... 120+ unanswered S&P points on this run up. I was of the mindset that we would be due for a pause soon.