JTH's Account Talk

[Bquat]

JTH and Bquat - Had personal concerns to work through, but glad to say I am on the mend. For better or worse, I was left sitting on the sidelines during the past nearly two months. Managing finances and timing market entries was not high on my list of things to do.

No sense playing catch-up, every day is a new adventure now.

Thanks for your valued insight JTH.

Mend you will and do you must yes.

 

[JTH]

A quick view of what can happen when the Bollinger Bands get compressed, as illustrated with the Bollinger Band Width Indicator.

View attachment 31506

 

[Whipsaw]

JTH, at least in the example above, the trend within the compressed Bollinger Bands carries through into the greater rally or pullback that follows. Is this fairly consistent behavior?

 

[JTH]

JTH, at least in the example above, the trend within the compressed Bollinger Bands carries through into the greater rally or pullback that follows. Is this fairly consistent behavior?

Not sure how to answer that question, because I have not personally performed an historical analysis of scans on Bollinger band compression in conjunction with trend direction. Generally what I will do it look at the last 2-3 occasions and make the assumption the markets are more likely to repeat the previous occurrence which most closely resembles what we are currently experiencing.

 

[JTH]

___
Phrase of the day, confirmation pending.

The PnF charts seem to be fairly on target, with realistic price objectives showing the C_S funds have another two to three percent to lose. The scales I currently have setup are an attempt to reduce the number of signals to where it doesn't force us to exceed the IFT limits, while at the same time switching faster than a regular PnF to avoid getting stuck in a position for too long.

View attachment 31520

A quick glance at the S&P 500 shows the price objective is -2.78% away, while a bullish price reversal is 2.88% away. This tells us the balance of price power is roughly in the middle or "equalized" The next level to watch is 1997.9 which will be a breach below the 2002.9 O and trigger an Descending Double Bottom Breakdown, from that point, we might see the bearish price objective revised to the downside and I would expect that level to flush out more bulls.

View attachment 31521
View attachment 31522

 

[bmneveu]

View attachment 31520

A quick glance at the S&P 500 shows the price objective is -2.78% away, while a bullish price reversal is 2.88% away. This tells us the balance of price power is roughly in the middle or "equalized" The next level to watch is 1997.9 which will be a breach below the 2002.9 O and trigger an Descending Double Bottom Breakdown, from that point, we might see the bearish price objective revised to the downside and I would expect that level to flush out more bulls.

Interesting that we are looking at the same levels on SPX albeit for different reasons. 1998 is smack at the 50day, and 1971 is damn close to the bottom of my channel. I'm looking to get in at or between those levels. Would you be a buyer at 1971, or would the sell off scare you away?

 

[JTH]

Interesting that we are looking at the same levels on SPX albeit for different reasons. 1998 is smack at the 50day, and 1971 is damn close to the bottom of my channel. I'm looking to get in at or between those levels. Would you be a buyer at 1971, or would the sell off scare you away?

1950 is a 50% retracement of the major 1820-1980 wave, without a confirmed reversal in place, if I were to jump in blindly (under PnF conditions) then that would be the level I'd take on risk. But before I could entertain that, we need to see if the 2000 area gets breached. In the end, it doesn't matter if it's 2000, 1971, 1950, or 1930, I'm just looking for higher high/lows and I'm willing to wait for a signal and lose the percentage slack in-between those levles.

 

[JTH]

1950 is a 50% retracement of the major 1820-1980 wave, without a confirmed reversal in place, if I were to jump in blindly (under PnF conditions) then that would be the level I'd take on risk. But before I could entertain that, we need to see if the 2000 area gets breached. In the end, it doesn't matter if it's 2000, 1971, 1950, or 1930, I'm just looking for higher high/lows and I'm willing to wait for a signal and lose the percentage slack in-between those levles.

Opps, 1820-2080

 

[JTH]

___
Evening

The Transports triggered its first Double Bottom Breakdown on 1 Dec, a full 8 days before the other indexes and that's why I have such an affection for the Tranny.

We now have 2 lower Xs with X,2 significantly lower than the previous high. Add to this the 3 lower Os, and I think we can easily see this index has issues. The good news is that with a lower high, a reversal will get triggered more quickly at 9027.3 just a mere 1.12% away.

Watching the yellow 8782.7 level, a place marking both a high & low, it's the next area of resistance & support and may tell us what we need to know about the markets direction.

View attachment 31532
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[malyla]

Smart man!

 

[JTH]

Watch out for the Large Cap rotation...

 

[OBXTrader]

I am not good enough to commit to moving into the TSP stock funds on a Friday like today, leave that to the market timers.

BTW - Your call on an explosive move downward a few days back was spot on. Explosive is likely relative depending on if one is in or out of the stock market.

Watch out for the Large Cap rotation...

 

[airlift]

Watch out for the Large Cap rotation...

JTH,

How do you expect the rotation to develop and end up? Tia.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Interesting that the transports are down with oil down so hard. Logic would suggest lower oil prices would help the transportation sector.

Guess it just goes to show how many cross-currents there are with this market.

Keep up the good work.

 

[JTH]

Interesting that the transports are down with oil down so hard. Logic would suggest lower oil prices would help the transportation sector.

Guess it just goes to show how many cross-currents there are with this market.

Keep up the good work.

I'll spectulate it's not about the drop in oil's price, it's about the drop in oil's demand, meaning less production of goods which will lead to less demand on the transportion of those goods. Theoretically, a global slowdown should show up in the Transports, but it's just a guess.

 

[JTH]

JTH,

How do you expect the rotation to develop and end up? Tia.

I don't have a good answer for that. As we've been led to believe, end of Quarter window dressing usually favors the large caps when fund managers dress up their portfoilies to make their investors think they are invested in strong companies. Afterwards, they dump the large caps and rotate back into small caps.

However, with the strong dollar and it's effect on large caps companies competing overseas, , we could see a dump of the large caps early, before year's end.

 

[Bquat]

I'll spectulate it's not about the drop in oil's price, it's about the drop in oil's demand, meaning less production of goods which will lead to less demand on the transportion of those goods. Theoretically, a global slowdown should show up in the Transports, but it's just a guess.

What do you think about Russia selling gold at the lows. That should make the dollar stronger and make Europe's gold reserves worth less when they need support for their currencies.

 

[JTH]

What do you think about Russia selling gold at the lows. That should make the dollar stronger and make Europe's gold reserves worth less when they need support for their currencies.

I'll stop while I'm ahead, I know very little about currencies & commodities, I'm not even a gold bug.

 

[airlift]

I'll stop while I'm ahead, I know very little about currencies & commodities, I'm not even a gold bug.

I don't know if he is still trading some currencies or not, but since Frixx Used to trade currencies maybe he can be of help. But these specialized areas have to be fresh in one's mind, if not, he will say so.

 

[Frixxxx]

I don't think Russia is selling their gold. Speculators and uneducated made comments that the Russian Central Bank had a decrease in assets and some people thought they might be selling their gold, when in actuality, the value of the assets decreased. Also, if gold is used in a transaction, it could be considered "selling" but not really.

Countries use gold for strengthening their positions, but as in any asset, it's value determines worth. But a 10.5% interest rate? That's huge. They're fighting inflation big time.